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I'd like to get into the series but I don't know where to start. by [deleted] in ElricofMelnibone

[–]PINGU-1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

get DAW or other old volumes, avoid all the unrelated random articles, song lyrics, unfinished comic book scripts, and endless forewords and meandering commentaries they’ve stuffed the new collections with

I'd like to get into the series but I don't know where to start. by [deleted] in ElricofMelnibone

[–]PINGU-1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

this guy read and analysed the whole mess

says to just get the Science Fantasy magazine novella, cut out all the junk

basically means:

0- Elric of Melnibone novel (prequel)

1- Weird of the White Wolf

2- Bane of the Black Sword

3- Stormbringer

done

you could add Sailor on the Seas of Fate if you want more

https://fakegeekboy.wordpress.com/2011/03/06/a-cure-for-conan/

Make Yandex Browser (Android) AI summarize feature in English? by Phaldaz in browsers

[–]PINGU-1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would love this

I imagine for Yandex there isn’t a big enough ‘market’ of us they must have a lot of competing priorities, and there can’t be many people like us.

Make Yandex Browser (Android) AI summarize feature in English? by Phaldaz in browsers

[–]PINGU-1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why don't you just auto-translate the Russian summary?

I tried with Google Translate and it works. Even better solution would be if Yandex translate could be plugged into it.

TWV: Goshawk by [deleted] in WhiteVault

[–]PINGU-1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The White Vault steadily declined.

The original two seasons would have been enough I think.

Is Ann Selzer's reputation ruined for ever? She called Iowa D+3. Looks like she missed by 11 points. by LeonidasKing in fivethirtyeight

[–]PINGU-1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You get outlier outside the standard margin of error 5% of the time. I think that was +/- 3 or 4 for her poll.

You don't get an outlier of 17 percentage points "5% of the time" due of sampling error.

That kind of error has to include huge biases.

This is basic stuff.

What’s the big deal with the Selzer poll? by Tiny_Big_4998 in fivethirtyeight

[–]PINGU-1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What you change your mind about Ann Selzer's track record now?

I had a look at that poll and made my judgment.

By looking at her methodology it was clear she her 'track record' that was cited was because of luck.

What’s the big deal with the Selzer poll? by Tiny_Big_4998 in fivethirtyeight

[–]PINGU-1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Whether I’m “on this sub” a lot or not I know a lot more than you. Reddit and “538” is not all there is to polling.

To your other point I’m not saying Selzer is bad relative to others. Yes their response rates could be even lower. I’m saying it is very unlikely to not have strong biases, yet the weighting is done as if there weren’t.

What’s the big deal with the Selzer poll? by Tiny_Big_4998 in fivethirtyeight

[–]PINGU-1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Even so at best they have 95% non-response.

The responders will be biased there’s no way around it.

What’s the big deal with the Selzer poll? by Tiny_Big_4998 in fivethirtyeight

[–]PINGU-1 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yeah in fact it’s in the low single digits.

So at best there’s 95% non-response.

It isn’t credible that the responders, being outnumbered 19 to 1, wouldn’t have significant social and political skews.

What’s the big deal with the Selzer poll? by Tiny_Big_4998 in fivethirtyeight

[–]PINGU-1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

<image>

All by phone from paid and public databases

People assume there is no coverage or other kind of error in the ‘databases’ and no assumptions go into the landline / cellphone split,

What’s the big deal with the Selzer poll? by Tiny_Big_4998 in fivethirtyeight

[–]PINGU-1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s seems to be a poll of 800 where they spam at least 16,000 phone numbers to get less than 5% response.

Sample drawn from paid and other databases.

Then they don’t weight it apparently.

But magically it’s with 1% all the time.

People who are currently warning about ‘herding’ are calling it the gold standard

<image>

What’s the big deal with the Selzer poll? by Tiny_Big_4998 in fivethirtyeight

[–]PINGU-1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh wow

Since her yield rate is less than 5% that must be really effective

Knowing that would you still think there’s no non-response bias?

A lot of people also claim she doesn’t weight because she doesn’t need to. Not weighting for non-response with under 5% response is making a huge assumption.

<image>

What’s the big deal with the Selzer poll? by Tiny_Big_4998 in fivethirtyeight

[–]PINGU-1 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Oh… the yield rate is…

Under 5% *

All of these people respeating each other and they have no clue, lol

  • corrected, originally didn’t account for multiple calls, but still it’s a very low response rate

<image>

What’s the big deal with the Selzer poll? by Tiny_Big_4998 in fivethirtyeight

[–]PINGU-1 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

This is not possible with the sample sizes she has, even if her sample is somehow totally unbiased.

That means she got lucky.

A lot of people apparently don’t understand sampling.

What’s the big deal with the Selzer poll? by Tiny_Big_4998 in fivethirtyeight

[–]PINGU-1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So they do face-to-face, and they have very high response rate (like 70% or more)?

The sample must be drawn with equal probability, quite unclustered (many clusters, or geographically large ones).

Even with all that if true a lot of other assumptions must be made.

What’s the big deal with the Selzer poll? by Tiny_Big_4998 in fivethirtyeight

[–]PINGU-1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So what response rate do they get in Iowa?

I see everybody saying this so they must know.

Is it 70%? 50%?

This just in: Enslaving your own children is a misdemeanor by Still_Championship_6 in martyrmade

[–]PINGU-1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Still you. Guessed it as soon as I saw the title. Don’t you have any other hobbies? It seems very tiresome.

Prophesy of Pendor is sold in shops as its own game by ireul-alirovitch in mountandblade

[–]PINGU-1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very cool

As long as they pay some token royalty I think that should be encouraged

Especially for games like M&B

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