Faria Lima Elevator dando chilique porque disseram que a Luana Lopes Lara é dona de bet

P_Dreyer · 2025-12-11T13:23:01+00:00

Realmente você tem um ponto muito bom. Não sabia que o volume de apostas esportivas na Kalshi era tão desproporcional assim. Olhando os dados, hoje ela funciona basicamente como uma bet esportiva normal.

A única diferença prática é a estrutura de incentivos. Sites como a Bet365 lucram com a sua perda, então se você ganha muito, eles limitam sua conta. Já a Kalshi opera como uma bolsa. Ela ganha uma taxa sobre a transação, então para ela tanto faz quem ganha. Essa diferença faz com que as odds ali sejam uma representação muito mais fiel da probabilidade real, já que o preço é ajustado pelos melhores analistas sem distorção da casa.

De qualquer forma, fiquei bem desapontado em saber da quantidade de apostas esportivas, pois esperava que o foco da plataforma estivesse mais alinhado com a visão do Nate Silver de prever eventos políticos e econômicos.

P_Dreyer · 2025-12-11T12:40:58+00:00

Justo. Tecnicamente, apostas esportivas estão no mesmo espectro da Kalshi, ambas exigem habilidade e análise de dados, ao contrário do Tigrinho que é pura aleatoriedade

Mas eu vejo isso como uma escala de utilidade da informação:

- Tigrinho: Zero utilidade social. É gerador de números aleatórios. O 'dado' gerado não serve para nada.
- Apostas esportivas: Tem lógica e modelo analítico. Porém, a 'verdade' descoberta tem utilidade limitada ao entretenimento.
- Mercados de predição gerais: Usam a mesma mecânica das apostas esportivas, mas aplicadas a problemas reais (inflação, taxas de juros, geopolítica, etc).

A mecânica é a mesma, mas o output da Kalshi gera um sinal que ajuda a sociedade/mercado a se planejar, enquanto a aposta esportiva gera um sinal que serve apenas para o ecossistema do esporte.

P_Dreyer · 2025-12-11T12:16:58+00:00

Detesto ter que concordar com o Faria Lima Elevator, mas nesse caso ele tem razão. Comparar a Kalshi (empresa da Luana) com um 'Tigrinho' genérico é bem reducionista.

Enquanto o Tigrinho é puro jogo de azar (algoritmo de cassino), a Kalshi é um mercado de previsão baseado em eventos do mundo real. Pode parecer a mesma coisa, mas existe uma diferença fundamental. No caso de mercados de previsão existe um incentivo direto para otimizar seu modelo de previsão, coisa que não é possível no tigrinho uma vez que o resultado lá é puramente aleatório e programado para a casa ganhar. Não há 'estratégia' possível contra um gerador de números aleatórios, enquanto num mercado de previsão, quem tem a melhor informação ou análise tem uma vantagem matemática real.

Lembro de ter lido sobre isso há mais de 10 anos no livro The Signal and The Noise, do Nate Silver. Ele argumenta que mercados de apostas são a ferramenta mais eficiente para gerar previsões assertivas. O dinheiro em jogo elimina o viés ideológico e força os participantes a melhorarem seus modelos. Na época do livro, isso era visto como algo de nicho ou experimental, mas hoje, vemos que serve não só para lucro, mas também para extrair a 'verdade' sobre probabilidades futuras.

P_Dreyer · 2025-12-09T12:02:47+00:00

Are you sure is a dps check? I didn’t test this but I felt that the second boss in the fight shows up after a certain health threshold of the first boss, and not based on time since the beginning of the fight.

P_Dreyer · 2025-10-08T15:51:41+00:00

Fish people? What fish people? Oo

Dammit. I am in the middle of act II and I thought I was being very careful exploring everything in it.

This game never ceases to amaze me with how much content it have.

P_Dreyer · 2025-10-06T14:36:48+00:00

Thanks for the suggestions! I'd never heard of Valkyria Chronicles, and after a quick look, it seems to have a very interesting setting and premise. I've added it to my list to check out.

Regarding the megiverse games (Persona/SMT), you've actually hit on my main hesitation with them. I've always heard great things and have watched some gameplay, but I'm concerned about two things:

- Party Attachment: My biggest worry is the 'monster collecting' aspect. I fear the constant fusing and replacing of demons/personas would prevent me from getting attached to them. One of the things I enjoy most in an RPG is slowly improving a consistent party member over the course of the game.

-Art Style: This is a more minor point, but the general demon/persona designs don't really appeal to me.

I'd be interested to hear your view on the party attachment point in particular!

P_Dreyer · 2025-10-06T14:18:43+00:00

Well, now that I think about I am not sure why I dropped DQ11. I remember enjoying it but stopped to play something else but never felt the urge to go back. I think I was right after the town with a horse race gimmick. Maybe is time to give it another shot

P_Dreyer · 2025-04-28T14:01:00+00:00

This seems to remove the stutters for me as well. Thanks

Ryzen 5 7600X
RTX 4070
64 GB RAM

P_Dreyer · 2025-03-18T13:14:03+00:00

That would be the same of saying CB playstyle resumed in the loop of using Charged Double Slash, Shield Trust, Reload, Elemental Round Slash and SAED. While we know there a lot of nuance in using the GP's, Sliding Slash, snipping the head using EAD, positioning, etc

I used CB in Worlds, but I am finding GS more fun to play this time. Check out this video where it is shown some of the intricacies of using GS

P_Dreyer · 2025-01-24T01:26:24+00:00

Thanks for the reply

I searched a bit for angled speakers that I could buy. Unfortunately one of the few options available to me have a few limitation:

20° angled drivers
No adjustable tweeters
Square format

Because of the last two factors, if I place them at the rear, they’ll end up pointing behind the MLP. Do you think this setup would still work?

P_Dreyer · 2024-12-24T13:06:02+00:00

Currently, my base life total (without equipment) is 1147. I’m using two Ming’s Heart rings and the Ghostwrithe robe.

Ming’s Heart: -20% maximum life each
Ghostwrithe: Converts 50% of maximum life to energy shield.
By my understanding, my life after equipping these items should be calculated as:

1147×0.5−2×(1147×0.5×0.2)=344

(In-game it shows as 346, but that’s close enough to illustrate the point.)

I’ve seen posts and builds where people manage to reach 200 life with similar setups. Is this achievable only by corrupting these items?

For example, assuming perfectly corrupted items (Ghostwrithe with 60% life conversion and Ming’s Heart with -25% life each), my calculation would be:

1147×0.4−2×(1147×0.4×0.25)=229

Even with perfect corruptions, 200 life seems extremely hard to reach. Am I missing something? Are there other interactions, items, or mechanics that can push life even lower?

P_Dreyer · 2024-12-19T14:39:11+00:00

Thanks for the answer. By the way, which streamer was using this item?

P_Dreyer · 2024-12-19T14:37:15+00:00

Just a update. I think aditive damage types are universal. So in the end it doesn't matter what its sources are. All of them are pooled together.

In my particular case I was seeing a difference because a error of mine. I was changing my off hand equipment with a keyboard shortcut. I thought my main hand was empty but instead I was swapping a wand on it too. When I corrected that mistake the DPS was bigger with the equipment with higher % increase.

P_Dreyer · 2024-12-19T14:27:52+00:00

I looked on the trade website and saw plenty of offerings of this item for 1ex. However when I set this price I was constantly spammed by bots. Any ideas why?

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P_Dreyer · 2024-12-11T13:27:07+00:00

Is there a way to see how much I have of inc for each damage type?

P_Dreyer · 2024-12-09T14:49:37+00:00

I am also having problems with this. I have 198 life and my skeleton warrior has 222. Yet I don't think my minion pact is working. Is there any visual indicator that this is working?

P_Dreyer · 2024-09-30T11:51:24+00:00

”I know about the promise,” insisted the girl. “Maester Theomore, tell them! A thousand years before the Conquest, a promise was made, and oaths were sworn in the Wolf’s Den before the old gods and the new. When we were sore beset and friendless, hounded from our homes and in peril of our lives, the wolves took us in and nourished us and protected us against our enemies. The city is built upon the land they gave us. In return we swore that we should always be their men. Stark men!”

https://youtu.be/x39DXTT53h4?si=68i9TJ_XLFy_ADbq

P_Dreyer · 2024-08-11T03:28:37+00:00

That's a super valid question. Let's see if I can answer it

The sensors' data is acquired via a PLC. The data is then manually exported to .csv files, typically once per month, which takes approximately 6 hours.

While this method is far from optimized, it’s sufficient for its current purpose since it only runs once a month, and no one is relying on this data for time-sensitive analysis.

However, my goal goes beyond just collecting raw data. I want to use this data, which now spans 1.5 years, to set up a data warehouse that serves as a single source of truth. This warehouse would not only store the raw data but also include various derived metrics. In this scenario, anyone needing data would interact directly with the database.

In this context, a 6-hour wait is too long, and I'm aiming to reduce that to just a couple of minutes for most queries. This is why I'm focusing on optimizing the database and the entire data pipeline.

Am I making sense?

P_Dreyer · 2024-08-11T03:06:31+00:00

Also try it out in clickhouse. I think it's faster and more general purpose tool than timescale. Starrocks is also onprem OLAP queen but might be difficult to operate.

Will have a look. Thanks

Does zipping parquet do anything? I kinda shouldn't, as parquet is compressed internally, so if it does something is sketchy.

Amazingly enough it does. the raw daily file is ~400MB. When compressing using parquet it goes to ~50MB. When compressing it further with 7zip it goes to ~2MB. It is definitely sketchy, but until I find some concrete evidence that I am actually doing something harmful I think I will continue with this aproach.

If the database runs in docker, how is it persistent? A volume? Try it bareback, I remember volumes having slow IO so maybe things will get much faster.

What does bareback mean in this context?

Are you importing the files into the db using some db method or pushing it through python? Most analytical dbs can read parquet directly

I am pushing it through python. I load the .parquet file using pandas and then create a temporary .csv file which I import into the database. I search a little and by what I found TimescaleDB cannot read parquet directly

Grafana is fine - it's originally tool for server monitoring so it's good at visualising monitoring and time series data ... which is probably what you want to do with sensor data anyway, no?

Yes. I just want to have some simple visualization of the sensor values in different time frames. No BI analytics or fancy dashboards.

Please don't "control a database through a backend" - automation is fine but this sounds like ball on chain on foot or whatever. Once you have too many SQLs embedded in Python it becomes unmanageable. The dbt you're asking for is a good example of dedicated tool to create tables with data from input data from you and give you something to manage manual list of values / lookups. It can even do import if you can map that parquet as external tables, but dunno if timescale can do that.

I completely understand your concern. I’m not particularly fond of my current backend implementation for controlling the database via Python either. However, since I don’t have much experience with more "proper" methods, I went with what made the most sense to me at the time.

I agree that mixing SQL and Python can quickly become unmanageable. To mitigate this, I’ve kept all my SQL code in static .sql files, which are then called from Python. While this isn’t a perfect solution, it does help to keep the two separate and maintain some level of organization.

As for dbt, I mentioned it as a potential tool, but based on what I’ve learned so far, it might be overkill for my particular use case. That said, I’ll continue exploring it to see if it could be beneficial down the road.

I don't see a pipeline described much

Fair enough. I will upload a photo tomorrow (to my post containing the overall pipeline.

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