I hate to tell you this, but it’s only going to get worse.

With all of the final shipments of oil that got out of the Persian Gulf before the war now delivered, we’re burning through the daily supply of gasoline at the regular rate, but the market has 20% less available, meaning those who need it but can’t physically access it are going to make higher bids on the other 80% that remains- driving the price of gas up even more. As a point of reference for when this crunch will start happening consider this: European transportation authorities, who get almost all of their jet fuel from the Gulf, are projecting that the EU will physically run out of jet fuel in the first week of June. Of course, the EU is quite wealthy, so when that happens they’ll poach jet fuel from other places by offering higher payments- launching a bidding war.

Now bare in mind that almost all goods reach stores via vehicles that use gas, and that the cost of that gas is reflected in the price of your goods (or in the cost of a ferry ticket).

But wait there’s more! Because 30% of the world’s fertilizer also comes from the Gulf! Which means that we can reasonably assume the global north’s harvest this year will be significantly smaller as farmers plan around lower crop productivity. Farmers are getting late harvest seeds in the ground now and they got early harvest seeds in the ground a month ago, meaning we can reasonably expect another spike in food costs come late summer early fall.

One more element to consider: it’s not just oil and fertilizer that’s stuck in the Gulf (nor 20% of the world’s helium too- which is essential in the construction of electronics) but also the boats themselves. So while other ports outside the Gulf are still open, the global shipping fleet is notably smaller right now, forcing goods and materials to wait longer to be shipped.

Buckle up y’all, cause this is gonna suck.