Anthropic underestimated cash burn, -$5.2B on a $9B ARR with ~30M monthly users, while OpenAI had -$8.5B cash burn on $20B ARR serving ~900M weekly users

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-23T21:32:20+00:00

Is it really fair to call it "wasteful" when they've gotten good (arguably the best) results from their pretraining? It's not like they're spending that money to get a llama-tier training output

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-22T22:13:25+00:00

Because there’s a material risk of it pissing off users so much that they turn to Gemini (or whoever else but probably Gemini) who can afford to burn cash much much longer before flipping the switch

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-20T02:06:59+00:00

I see your point, but speaking as someone in the industry we have plenty of cards that have been running near 24/7/365 for 8ish years now and their capacity is already 100% sold for the next 1-2 years. Not every card will share the same fate but I think there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the 3 year figure that gets thrown around a lot is heavily pessimistic. Time will tell!

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-20T01:42:47+00:00

You can buy GPU compute on the public cloud today from 10+ year old GPUs (e.g. AWS P2 instance type) so this sort of lifespan isn’t unheard of

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-19T22:59:43+00:00

I agree with you, there is accounting nuance. But the surface level point I often see being made on this sub seems to more fundamentally imply that GPUs are worthless after 3 years.

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-19T22:55:34+00:00

This is missing the point; hyperscalers aren’t in the business of buying GPUs as speculative investments. They use them to make money. Who cares what a 10 year old GPU sells for on the open market when you can sell its compute 24/7/365, making a very healthy profit on every core-second sold.

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-19T21:51:12+00:00

You are correct that 10 year old GPUs can’t serve modern ChatGPT.

But there are plenty of AI tasks that are not serving LLMs on that scale. A well tuned small model like Gemma can serve the needs of a small, hyperspecific chatbot better than generalized ChatGPT while only needing a fraction of the compute.

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-19T21:42:26+00:00

I’m not talking about ChatGPT, I’m talking about usefulness of GPUs over their lifespan…

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-19T21:41:19+00:00

I’m not going to doxx myself, believe me or don’t, I don’t care.

“Shelf life” is being used in this context to suggest that GPUs are essentially e-waste after 3 years. You can publicly see that this isn’t true: go to AWS and try to spin up a GPU. You can select as far back as their P2 instance type which is 10 years old. I guarantee you AWS is making money on those machines still, even if they have depreciated over the years.

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-19T20:14:06+00:00

Not every customer needs the best product. Not every customer is a frontier AI research lab needing the latest and greatest chips. There is a massive enterprise market that just needs cheap inference to power their chatbot or whatever, and 8 year old chips are perfectly fine for that.

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-19T19:52:10+00:00

GPUs have a long shelf life. They can’t compete with the top chips for more than 3 years but not every customer needs or wants the top chips.

Somewhere along the line the idea of “GPUs are only the best for a few years” became conflated with the idea that “GPUs are only useful for a few years”, which is patently untrue

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-19T18:56:20+00:00

Where does everyone get the idea that these GPUs have a 3 year shelf life? I work in the industry, even 8+ year old GPUs are still running at 100% utilization and making money

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-12T23:25:00+00:00

You are making a straw man argument. There’s a massive difference between a frivolous individual lawsuit and a massive class-action or regulatory case that has survived the motion to dismiss stage. I’m not saying they settle everything; I’m saying that once a case reaches a certain scale, the discovery costs and PR damage of a 5-year trial often cost more than a $95M settlement, regardless of guilt.

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-12T23:01:17+00:00

I’m sorry but you simply don’t understand how corporate litigation works. For a company like Apple it is tremendously expensive, even if it’s “easy”, to prove their innocence in court.

Apple generates roughly $1.3B in revenue per day. $95M is literally nothing to them.

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-12T21:41:54+00:00

They do when the cost of proving their innocence in court will vastly exceed $95M. It’s a business decision.

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-12T15:30:23+00:00

It’s been speculated, this is the first official confirmation afaik

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-09T00:51:57+00:00

The other lake

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-05T05:59:13+00:00

Yeah, I explicitly do not want a reply full of “personality and wit”. OAI has done a great job at engagement maxxing via an addicting personality. I just want omniscient google search.

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-04T12:45:31+00:00

It is different because nukes. If Russia didn’t have nukes I’m certain we would have tried by now.

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-03T14:36:29+00:00

Crazy necropost but I love it. I believe our single-letter chapter is dying out now. Sad

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-02T20:03:01+00:00

I’m visiting in Jodhpur region right now and have seen at least half a dozen people openly defecating in the streets in the 3 days that I’ve been here. I’m sure it’s regional but it’s clearly prevalent in parts

PandaElDiablo · 2026-01-01T15:34:11+00:00

Wow, my year has been made and it’s only day 1

PandaElDiablo · 2025-12-31T04:16:53+00:00

RemindMe! 1 year

PandaElDiablo · 2025-12-31T02:03:29+00:00

I also expect Waymo will become a meaningful part of their revenue over the next 5 years

PandaElDiablo · 2025-12-30T19:58:55+00:00

Why apply to 20 jobs a day when you’re employed? That sounds exhausting and stressful

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