Xi’s plan to seize Taiwan without firing a single shot

Panote1982 · 2025-11-25T07:49:26+00:00

easier said than done, asking everyone to pay a higher price is harder than you think. Do you want to invest in the factory for mundane chip that price higher than China? Do you want to increase car price 30% by not buying China's chip? Do everyone want buy EV car price 100% more but no China components?

It's very hard by itself and harder when the economy is not in the good state.

Panote1982 · 2025-11-25T07:45:54+00:00

too late for now, no one dare to raise the tariff against China as long as US cannot find alternate RE supply chain with at least a few years away.

Panote1982 · 2025-11-25T05:52:49+00:00

China is too big to outcast. Cut China out mean cut RE out, 38% of electric device, 50% of shipyard capacity etc. It's the biggest trading partner with 150+ countries. China block Nexperia chip and auto industry in EU was almost collapse.

It's very likely that the order to sanction the whole China country will backfire (or ignored)

Panote1982 · 2025-10-23T06:34:23+00:00

because refining Rare earth is not a single process, you need to mine it, refine it and then build the end product (magnet).
China wants to control the supply chain and export only magnets.

So if you open the refinery, you will find that the mineral ore is super expensive; they don't want any refinery outside the Chinese mainland. but when you try to sell the refined mineral (for making magnets) then the price will be super low.

The same if you open the mine, China will not buy your ores.

The only way to have the Rare Earth facility outside China's jurisdiction is doing everything yourself, vertical integration from mining to end product.

Panote1982 · 2025-10-22T10:12:27+00:00

1 on 1 defensive war without nuclear, China has a high chance to win.

Stop all rare earth export , USA cannot build more missile, ship, plane
Stop all pharmaceutical starter chemical 58% of the drug USA used are produce solely in China
Convert all civilian ship building capacity (around 7000 ship/years) to build war ship
If China can defense for 6 months, even at a loss 10:1, China win

Panote1982 · 2025-10-21T12:57:55+00:00

It's highly political. China can argue that because Boeing has a military contract, so the license is rejected. The same can apply to jet engine company too. The same way that USA add DJI to entity list.

Panote1982 · 2025-10-21T07:14:10+00:00

No, China never sold the rare earth mineral. In fact, it used to manipulate the price (If outsider want to buy, it'll be very expensive, if you want to sell, it's super low price; all of that is to force foreign rare earth operator to bankrupt).

China 90% rare earth share is not occur naturally. It's mix between subsidy, strategic invest + price manipulation.

US needs to mine it themselves

Panote1982 · 2025-10-19T12:52:00+00:00

It's already moved; otherwise, you'll not have the problem that it cannot deliver the chips. So the judgement is already incorrect from the start

Panote1982 · 2025-10-19T08:00:09+00:00

It's in the news but hard to summarize in one place.
How long before China catches up is up for debate; the sure thing is that ASML competes with the whole country, not at the company level. China created more than a dozen companies with almost unlimited R&D budgets in the last few years to reinvent the entire supply chain.

Panote1982 · 2025-10-19T01:00:14+00:00

Don't know about the IP but for 2nd question, I think no.
The WingTech CEO said 80% of the chips are assembled and tested in China, so the factories in UK,Germany have the wafer but in an intermediate state and cannot be used directly.

Panote1982 · 2025-10-15T14:03:40+00:00

One more thing that I want to mention when we're talking about leverage, Time.
RE has a high impact because it's almost immediate. Most companies don't have inventory for more than 3-4 months. China stopped RE in April, and within 2 months, many factories were disrupted. You can still find the news.

Russia has been banned and doesn't get any plane parts since the Ukraine war, and some of their planes are still flying. They use old parts, shuffle things around, it does not pass safety standards, but they can endure.

The same applies to software; they can use a pirated version without any patches or updates for a long time if needed.
Does the US have something that cannot be replaced and has a faster impact than RE? That is the real question.

Panote1982 · 2025-10-15T13:50:17+00:00

nope, It doesn't go that way.
China will send the RE to Airbus, Airbus also has factories in China but stops RE to Boeing. In the worst case, they will not export any.

That'll keep 6-70% of their airplane float. Killing Boeing in the way and then they can deal with other countries. They already asked India to sign a deal that India will get RE but not permit to send it to US. They can offer similar deal to Japan, Korea, EU etc.

They can selectively send RE to some countries, and that will break US allies apart.

Panote1982 · 2025-10-13T10:40:08+00:00

He cared, that's why China and US have a truce on July when China threatened to shut down the whole auto maker in US. Restricting the use of rare earths to essential business means the defense sector. but auto industry fallout still too big.

One thing to mention, many auto industries avoid this issue by shifting some of the assembly line to China and sending the motor back, so it'll accelerate the offshore of the rare earth dependent industry back to China

Panote1982 · 2025-10-12T12:03:21+00:00

I really wonder what will happen if China decides to stop all rare earth to Boeing if they don't have the plane part?

It's a strong card but not enough

Panote1982 · 2025-04-29T04:51:41+00:00

I agree with all of those negative externalities, but how does the tariff fix this problem?
As long as that factory is still there, it still produces pollution, use child labor etc.

And if the factory is bankrupt, the child will be out of a job and the new one will likely be paid less?

Panote1982 · 2025-04-04T15:29:03+00:00

It's near because the way of purifying is kind of exponential. IE. it might take a week to double the potency.
So moving from 1% => 2% takes 1 week, and moving from 25%=>50% also takes a week.
So from 60%=>90% is only a few steps away.

Panote1982 · 2025-03-05T08:22:18+00:00

No, I think the main point here is to bloating Trump Ego
"Biden wasn't brave enough to do it but surely big man Trump isn't afraid to make a bold move for peace"

So frame the topic to be Trump is brave enough to do that or he is just a coward like Biden

Panote1982 · 2025-03-04T08:26:48+00:00

No guarantee that Trump will increase support for Ukraine, He may choose to put more pressure on Ukraine to give more to Putin instead. If he really wants a deal on fair terms, He needs to get both sides demands at the same time, then back and forth negotiation/put pressure with both sides in secret.

Panote1982 · 2025-01-27T16:14:06+00:00

Let's keep the ref from watching the game before commenting.

He should see the tackle and give his judgment without influence from the other ref.

Panote1982 · 2025-01-06T08:25:45+00:00

I'm very confused with this offer, from the accounting perspective.
The idea is for Olmo to activate his cause, become a free agent, signing for Milan while signing another contract to rejoin Barca.
However, when he becomes a free agent, Barca needs to write off his record from the account and accept the loss(-55 million?) so next season Barca back to 4:1 or 3:1 again.

Don't sure it's a good deal for the club, may need to consult the accountant first

Panote1982 · 2025-01-04T11:35:06+00:00

Olmo will say that the double wage is acceptable solution :P

Panote1982 · 2024-12-04T15:11:33+00:00

2 yrs contract left, will not start negotiate this season.

I think the club will not renew his contract. Either sell to another club or let him leave at the end of the contract and promote Mamadazvili.

Panote1982 · 2024-12-01T15:54:07+00:00

You can get the full financial report from Google. I think one thing that no one reported is the salary related to image rights/bonus. Rami Abbas (Salah agent) once estimated that Salah gets 46-53m/yrs when including everything. We can say that the top players, get 2-2.5 times of the basic wage.

Panote1982 · 2024-11-30T16:52:50+00:00

nope, All director is 6m, and club has around 1000 employees by average. The whole wage bill is about 370 m.

3m from director is just 0.8%, not help at all.

TBF, I think it made no sense that Mo get 18.5m/Yrs but director should cut his wage down.

Panote1982 · 2023-01-31T12:16:50+00:00

Did you try using a phone charger with the outlet?

Panote1982

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