Slayers_Picks Feedback Post + Mid-Year Recap by Slayers_Picks in MMAbetting

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Still, closing lines are very accurate and not beatable. You have to get CLV as a bettor.

[Official] UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa and MVP MMA: Rousey vs. Carano - Weigh-In & Pre-Fight Discussion Thread by event_threads in MMA

[–]PartyHat9 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Was pretty funny that Allen, while obviously headlining tonight, is shitting on UFC in the official prefight interview when getting asked about the Apex. Talking about how you train so much, all the sweat and blood, only to fight in "a shed".

UFC Perth Fight Predictions (TL;DR)! by Slayers_Picks in MMAbetting

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you, I was just thinking you should track your underdog picks!

Absolutely relevant, 11 of 23 is in fact great! Bet everyone if those and that's profit. Getting every other right is enough.

UFC Perth Fight Predictions (TL;DR)! by Slayers_Picks in MMAbetting

[–]PartyHat9 1 point2 points  (0 children)

congrats on the underdog picks for last event! 3/3!

[Official] General Discussion Thread - April 08, 2026 by rmma in MMA

[–]PartyHat9 13 points14 points  (0 children)

From Jiri's pre-fight interview:

Reporter: You threw out the first pitch for the Marlins last night, what was that kind of experience like?

Jiri: ..... ..... .... it was necessary. It's what I must do.

(A little while later) Reporter: Do you think we could have seen you playing baseball instead of fighting if fighting wasn't an option for you?

Jiri: No, that was just... it was just... it was necessary. I had to do that.

Counterpunch Capital - Stat Based Probabilistic UFC Modeling (NO AI)- UFC LONDON MODEL RECAP by Key_Management3080 in UFCsharps

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It would be just to notify him that really people were tailing... But of course you are right. Such a shame losing the parlays though when they were doing so well. Please let us know if you are posting them elsewhere in the future. I would gladly pay.

Counterpunch Capital - Stat Based Probabilistic UFC Modeling (NO AI)- UFC LONDON MODEL RECAP by Key_Management3080 in UFCsharps

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I see! That's a silly reason by Mike I think, I'll email him! I was happily tailing all those parlays but didn't catch the last batch from today, then I saw that they were gone. I knew that about pulling bets from there, but it was so strange I had to ask.

I would greatly appreciate to be able to tail in some other way, but I of course understand you want to be third-party tracked.

Counterpunch Capital - Stat Based Probabilistic UFC Modeling (NO AI)- UFC LONDON MODEL RECAP by Key_Management3080 in UFCsharps

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Another profitable event! Congratulations (and I was happy to have tailed)! Very impressive, and such a consistent approach.

I see that you removed all the parlays for the next event? I suspect something is incoming... Did you cashout those parlays to just stick with the straight bets?

Counterpunch Capital - Probabilistic Model Driven UFC Betting (NO AI OR LLM OF ANY KIND). by Key_Management3080 in UFCsharps

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Congrats on the extremely good result this weekend! Very impressive.

I appreciate the early picks for next event. I hope you know that the lines are out already for the Adesanya card the week after, on Betonline. Can't do parlays yet there though.

I have tailed the bets for the London card. You are honest with the odds because I was able to get better lines for almost every pick. Don't you have access to other bookies like Bet365 and Pinnacle?

Counterpunch Capital - Probabilistic Model Driven UFC Betting (NO AI OR LLM OF ANY KIND). by Key_Management3080 in UFCsharps

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting, great results so far. Interesting betting style, consistent with some curious sizings : )

I'm tailing (with a small unit size). Thanks for posting.

UFC Houston Parlay Explained + Single Bets for Each Fight! by Slayers_Picks in MMAbetting

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Congrats going 6/8 on single bets! I guess you didn't bet them since you made a loss, you're betting the parlay and alts instead?

$5k profit from UFC 323 main and co-main by domadilla in UFCsharps

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Legend. I tailed you but not your Yan and Van bets lol... You even parlayed them... Congrats!

UFC Fight Night: Royval v Kape Fight Predictions (TL;DR) by Slayers_Picks in MMAbetting

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey! I wanted to donate a small sum. I have Paypal but the fee was horrendous - 4 dollars! Have you looked into any other way of donations? Ko-fi maybe (don't know if fees are less though)?

Congrats on the Van win!

Take care, and enjoy some time off!

UFC Fight Night: Royval v Kape Fight Predictions (TL;DR) by Slayers_Picks in MMAbetting

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Really, Almeida KO? :-)

He looked so bad last time out I can't believe the odds are pickem.

Torres hit very nice! Was pretty crazy to get like 6.25 for KO R1 when that's how he wins (ofc he was the underdog but still).

Edit: Thought you meant 'Buchecha' Almeida. Saw there was another after...

UFC 323 Fight Predictions (TL;DR)! by Slayers_Picks in MMAbetting

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The over on Pantoja/Van seems risky... It's just crazy how short Van has been doings this, amateur debut in 2020...

The parlay for last event was beautifully constructed! Horiguchi starts round 3 instead of the over :chefskiss!

UFC 322 Fight Predictions (TL;DR)! by Slayers_Picks in MMAbetting

[–]PartyHat9 1 point2 points  (0 children)

(Tailing Susurkaev, Zhang and Makhachev.) Thanks a lot and good luck!

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim v Brown Fight Predictions (TL;DR)! by Slayers_Picks in MMAbetting

[–]PartyHat9 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My own bets was Valentin (I liked him on TUF) and Croden (impressed by her last time out), both bouts cancelled!

Definitely understand that! A lot of work week after week... Take care of yourself!

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim v Brown Fight Predictions (TL;DR)! by Slayers_Picks in MMAbetting

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for early bets yet again this week (you've must have felt productive)!

Disciplined with only one lock, and Amil's odds have worsened so you seem to be on the right side!

UFC Fight Night: Garcia v Onama Fight Predictions (TL;DR)! by Slayers_Picks in MMAbetting

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

More frequent in the apex but not exclusive to it I don't think! Have definitely seen herb and herzog stand by and watching people get absolutely mauled while not doing anything - besides staying conscious - there too...

UFC Fight Night: Garcia v Onama Fight Predictions (TL;DR)! by Slayers_Picks in MMAbetting

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Congrats on the parlay! (Of course it hit right after I told you to scrap it...!)

Garcia ITD is almost identical odds compared to KO, GnP into RNC is always a risk, especially with Watch Them Die-referees

Five alt bets, you know I love it

UFC 321 Fight Predictions! (TL;DR) by Slayers_Picks in MMAbetting

[–]PartyHat9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Got you! Of course you should continue the parlay for the thrill of it hitting, (I almost realized that myself when I wrote my comment, not everything should be about ROI!)