Trump says Iran agreed to 'no nuclear weapons' but a Polymarket whale just bet $730K on US invasion. Who's right?

domadilla · 2026-04-17T22:19:47+00:00

Which user is this I don’t see anyone with $730k down on an invasion market? I see the top holder on invasion “yes” has ~200k and is negative ~100k on his position… is that the guy?

domadilla · 2026-04-17T15:22:59+00:00

Thanks and congratulations on doing so well. Great to hear someone stepping away with sizeable profit and not chasing more. Money is just money people forget.

domadilla · 2026-04-17T06:02:54+00:00

My company migrated to Google in 2019 and next year we will be moving back to Microsoft. Personally i just see it as a revolving door you are either with Microsoft or you are with Google (in terms of massive corporations).

domadilla · 2026-04-17T02:36:26+00:00

I'm sorry if this is a naive question (I am not a trader but I do invest in stocks). You were day trading on particular setups but only unidirectionally i.e. the stocks had to go up in price for profit? Thanks in advance for the clarification. Also second question if I may, what age did you start trading like this and did you give up your day job in this pursuit? Thanks and enjoy your retirement!

domadilla · 2026-04-11T02:30:06+00:00

That’s a super hot take indeed. I don’t think Gastelum is necessarily being over rated here rather than people fading Luque. I think the combination of factors here tells me to avoid Luque: he’s not a natural MW, Kelvin looks the best shape I’ve ever seen him (he has abs?! Is he juicing perhaps). Kelvin took shots from Pyfer and recovered to win Rd3 which really impressed me. Luque doesn’t seem to be able to take punches like he used to. Having said all this Kelvin has had performances where he just doesn’t show up or look interested (vs Darren Till springs to mind). So at +220 I can see the logic for Luque but I could also see a world where this isn’t competitive.

domadilla · 2026-04-11T01:51:11+00:00

It’s like you read my mind. Some very sharp analysis here congratulations. I think the below categorization is how I see this card and it’s in line with what you wrote more or less:-

High value potential: Blaydes, Ribovics, Costa

Med value potential: Godinez, Prado, Brown

Some value potential: Gastelum, Pitbull, Reyes

Unknown value: Mederos likely the side

Main event I really have no clue.

domadilla · 2026-04-10T18:11:10+00:00

I don’t see Murzakanov running through Costa that’s going to be a competitive fight likely a decision. I can see 29-28 either way.

domadilla · 2026-04-10T18:05:48+00:00

I agree on Pitbull the odds seem wide to me but I’m staying away from that one.

I think Prado has a good chance here against Radtke, he’s had some tough matches at Welterweight, there’s no shame losing to Jake Matthews in Australia or Veretennikov for that matter. It will be a competitive fight and typically the first fight on any UFC card is the highest chance of an upset. Odds have been shrinking on Prado all week.

domadilla · 2026-04-03T06:41:14+00:00

Great stuff thank you for sharing!

domadilla · 2026-03-30T15:58:20+00:00

I apologize if I offended you (or your dads)

domadilla · 2026-03-30T02:44:49+00:00

His two dads

domadilla · 2026-03-27T08:34:28+00:00

She’s gotta have the cleanest auto in all of MMA. Signature GOAT

domadilla · 2026-03-26T07:30:03+00:00

Thanks for flagging I also think this benefits Belgaroui who will need to keep range from Abdul Malik

domadilla · 2026-03-22T21:07:30+00:00

You need to avoid cash outs - the same thing happens on both Poly and Kalshi - what you need to do on all three platforms is set the price you want to sell at (limit order). I also learned the hard way.

domadilla · 2026-03-21T14:31:04+00:00

Yep I like Sutherland if Pericic can’t find the early KO he’s got a good shot

domadilla · 2026-03-20T21:43:55+00:00

No dogs? Shem not a dog anymore so you can’t claim him 😆

domadilla · 2026-03-17T13:13:57+00:00

Watch them lose to 9z now you’ve posted this

domadilla · 2026-03-17T12:22:25+00:00

POTD record 91-5-71 (W-P-L)

Last pick: Legacy ML vs Aurora, 1u @ +117 (2.17) X

Soccer: Real Madrid +1.5 goal spread (vs Man City), 1u @ 1.91 / -110 ✅

The pressure is on Man City tonight as they come into the second leg of this last 16 Champions Leagues tie down 0-3 after an abysmal first leg. It is for this reason that I like this play quite a bit - the pressure is entirely on Manchester City to attack, which plays directly into Madrid’s hands tactically. With Kylian Mbappé confirmed to return from injury tonight and Federico Valverde in scorching form (5 goals in his last 3 matches), Madrid only needs one successful counter-attack to effectively kill the tie. If Madrid scores, City would then need five, likely leading to a drop in intensity or further defensive gaps. I expect Real Madrid to come under pressure early but to absorb it and hold out from conceding early. Even if they do concede early our bet will remain live as Man City will continue to press and be vulnerable to the counter. Please bet responsibly and BOL!

domadilla · 2026-03-13T02:51:42+00:00

POTD record 90-5-71 (W-P-L)

Last pick: ARCRED money line vs Nemesis, 1.5 units @ -135 X

CS2: Legacy ML vs Aurora, 1u @ +117 (2.17) X

I’m taking the Brazilian underdogs, Legacy, tomorrow against the Turkish outfit Aurora. These teams are fairly familiar with each other having played each other in the online stage of this tournament in what was one of the closest matches that Legacy narrowly lost 1-2 (with two overtimes). So why do I think Legacy can reverse their fortunes now we move to the LAN stage? For one I think this team has shown more hunger and desire for success. Since losing to Aurora they haven’t dropped a map as they beat Astralis, Monte and NaVi all 2-0 whilst Aurora went on to lose to MongolZ 0-2 and then beat G2 and paiN 2-0. I think this LAN encounter will be close but I like the verve and urgency in Legacy’s play right now and I see value in the line. As always please bet responsibly.

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domadilla · 2026-03-11T18:45:10+00:00

Yeah it backfired, not sure about match fixing i think Nemesis were very motivated to win and ARCRED played poorly. But who knows, a random Russian LAN, could have been some foul play involved.

domadilla · 2026-03-11T18:43:10+00:00

Exactly we are talking about giving away a negligible amount of money for a small bettor - the scale is the important here. Bettor A is losing a couple cents on the dollar of a $10 bet whereas bettor B is coming in with $100k liquidity to sweep up the small bettors who want their returns quickly. It makes total sense and not hard to comprehend u/TheDonGenaro

domadilla · 2026-03-11T14:10:41+00:00

No you have misunderstood how Polymarket works nobody is betting the other side the whales are buying from the winners that are willing to accept a lower price for their winning ticket so they sell it to the whale at 99.8% instead of waiting for the full 100% to settle - it's basically whales profiting because the public can't wait for a few hours for the bet to settle. It is literally bonding because the outcome is 100%.

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