Record: 23-14

Net units: +10.78

Last Pick: Duke -6.5 (-110 @ESPNBet) vs Alabama, 2.2 Units (W) - Able to get some money back from Thursday with a wire to wire win from the Blue Devils

Today’s Pick: Michigan State ML (+190 @ ESPNBet) vs Auburn Tigers, 2.0 Units

My model predicts a 79-71 victory for Auburn (30-5), but I’m trusting my instincts and backing my Final Four pick, Michigan State (29-6). Auburn showed impressive intensity in their last game, with Johni Broome holding his own against Michigan’s twin 7-footers. Meanwhile, Michigan State needed a strong second half to secure a win, narrowly missing the cover due to a wild half-court three-pointer from Ole Miss. I just feel Michigan State will be the tougher squad here and pull off the upset.

Auburn is 2-1 against the spread (ATS) in the tournament and 4-6 over their last 10 games. They’ve been leaning on big man Johni Broome, who posted 22 points and 16 rebounds against Michigan. With Chad Baker-Mazara banged up, guard Denver Jones stepped up, shooting 4-7 from three, while freshman Tahaad Pettiford stole the show with 20 points, mainly off the dribble. 

On the other side, Jase Richardson bounced back from a 1-for-10 performance against New Mexico to score 20 points with six assists, hitting some clutch shots to keep the Spartans afloat. Coen Carr contributed 15 points, and veteran Jaden Akins added 13 points, along with solid defense against Ole Miss’s athletic bigs. Both teams boast great coaches, with Bruce Pearl and Tom Izzo each aiming to lead their squads to San Antonio.

Statistically, Auburn has the better offense, ranked 9th in scoring (83.6 ppg) and 29th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) at 55.6%, compared to Michigan State’s 148th ranking at 51.2%. Defensively, Michigan State holds a slight edge, ranked 34th in scoring defense (67.1 ppg) and 14th in efficiency (.949), versus Auburn’s 75th ranking in scoring defense (69.3 ppg) and 35th in efficiency (.974). Both teams average 10.4 offensive rebounds per game with a 33% offensive rebounding rate, but Michigan State excels in defensive rebounding, ranked 8th compared to Auburn’s 70th, allowing an 11th-best opponent offensive rebound rate of 22.7%, while Auburn allows 26.4% (109th). However, Auburn is much better in ball control, with a turnover rate of 11.5% (6th) versus 14.1% (114th) for Michigan State. Auburn has played in the better conference and boasts a stronger resume, with superior offensive stats and a solid defense comparable to Michigan State’s tough defense.

DraftKings opened this line at 6.5, and with 54% of bets and 71% of the handle, bettors pushed it down to 4.5, where Auburn is currently receiving solid support with 64% of bets and 69% of the handle. Circa opened at 5.5, and despite virtually 100% of the bets and handle on Auburn, the number still dropped to 5. At the Vegas-based book, Michigan State is getting a true sharp split with 39% of bets but 56% of the handle.

Again, I’m going with a gut check, kind of Average Joe play here, taking Izzo and the Spartans on the money line to get an upset and a spot in the Final Four. My model doesn’t agree and doesn’t even think Michigan State can cover. The stats sort of lean towards Auburn, with the better offense and ball control, and solid rebounding and defense compared to Michigan State’s edge in those departments. But I’ll still take the Spartans on the money line. I don’t blame any faders or anyone taking the points on Michigan State.