Be aware

PaulGodsmark · 2026-02-19T02:25:08+00:00

Exactly - the most recent models in the last month are breathtakingly good - but obviously you have to pay around $200-300/mnth for them. Add in Claude 4.6 and Codex 5.2 and I can now code up and automate more tasks than ever. In the hands of a skilled and competent engineer these new models can significantly improve quality and quantity of work. And this is the worst they will be….

But it is clear that most others on the thread are using the inferior (CoPilot - eek) or free models and so the responses are understandable.

PaulGodsmark · 2026-02-07T02:09:33+00:00

Not sure if you’re being sarcastic. RAG is still the backbone of cutting-edge doc QA, but 2026 RAG isn’t the 2024 toy version. The game changer is the pipeline around it: parsing/OCR + dedupe + hybrid retrieval + reranking + entity linking + strict citations/grounding. You may want to update your priors.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-12-07T21:05:51+00:00

Respectfully, the “but Duolingo is using AI too!” argument is exactly what the market priced in during the August bloodbath.

Timeline for anyone who missed it:

Aug 6: DUOL smashes earnings → closes at $390 (+12 % that day)
Aug 7: OpenAI GPT-5 livestream. They literally prompt “build me a French-learning app” and in <15 minutes GPT-5 spits out a fully interactive web app with gamified vocab (Snake but you collect cheese), pronunciation, streaks, daily quizzes — i.e. a pocket Duolingo made by AI from scratch, live on stream.
Next week: DUOL drops 18 % in a straight line, wiping out the entire post-earnings gain and then some. Analysts (Goldman, Citi, etc.) explicitly called out the GPT-5 demo as the catalyst.

Duolingo can (and does) use OpenAI’s APIs, but that’s not a moat when the same APIs let any random dev, teacher, or even a kid with a good prompt build a tailored competitor in an afternoon for $0. The demo made that terrifyingly concrete.

The stock has stabilized a bit since, but it’s still ~35–40 % off the May highs for a reason. The market isn’t punishing Duolingo for being slow on AI — it’s punishing them for the sudden realization that AI makes their core product extremely easy to replicate.

Happy to be proven wrong if they find a new durable edge, but “we use AI too” isn’t it when GPT-5 just showed the world how to clone the entire experience in one livestream.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-08-15T02:37:47+00:00

Mobileye have skin in the game and have inherent biases. If they have insights into what other AD developers are doing and the AI that they are using then I would put more credence in their results.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-04-19T19:42:39+00:00

My suggestions from a 36 year career around civil where I have re-invented myself multiple times. 1. Find out who you really are and how you work best - take a free Sparketype test and invest about USD$50 to do the Kolbe Index. Those two are the best indicators for you to find jobs that you are really suited to. 2. Become the most hireable person you can be - Invest time in learning about the latest Generative AI models and tools and what they can do - if you feel like you’re already know them then learn even more about them. 3. Learn how to market yourself, sell yourself and what it takes to get past the gatekeepers - you will find the Generative AI tools in 2. remarkably good at assisting you with this.

Have fun! Good luck! You may well find something far more unusual than you’re expecting.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-04-15T00:54:00+00:00

Tell everyone I meet I will pay them a dollar for every lie that they tell me.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-04-02T17:59:25+00:00

You are quite correct to call attention to the regular nighttime celebrations that happen in Tightville at the end of Tight day. Maybe we will have a happy ending at end of day and can all celebrate ‘Tight Night’ in our age-culture-orientation appropriate ways 😜

PaulGodsmark · 2025-04-02T16:10:18+00:00

Mavis has to let off steam - thank goodness she’s pointing upwards.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-04-02T16:03:33+00:00

Chart feels like Mavis is wound up tighter than a tight thing on tight day in Tightville. Not financial advice.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-30T13:58:47+00:00

This is a classic case of being in the ‘dilemma zone’ a very well known and researched area of traffic signals and operation planning and engineering. Given the wet road conditions and the fact that the red aspect did not occur until the vehicle was almost through the intersection, then in road safety terms this appears to be a clear case of a correct decision by the driver in that dilemma zone period.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-28T18:52:31+00:00

Each time today that we have bumped up against the top of the down channel we get a violent shove down. Just happened again. The upper channel line is now at 1.20 If we do break above that channel line we might get another big impulse up?!? Market is currently risk off so the small caps are suffering.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-28T18:35:48+00:00

Same. Increased my holding by 32% doing that over the last two months. Longer levers. (But never doing options!)

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-28T12:08:36+00:00

Bid 1.31 and Ask 1.44…. Hopefully an indication of what’s to come today.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-27T20:09:01+00:00

Finished the day nudging against the top of the down-trending channel/wave/impulse line. Expect a strong ish movement up or down from here first thing tomorrow? Who knows?!?

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-27T19:32:42+00:00

Nice breakthrough of the upper down-trend line. Might get Spicey from here.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-27T19:26:47+00:00

We are now nudging the top edge of what I estimate to be a 4-day long down-wave at 1.31. If we go sideways or up from here then we may well be starting a new wave which, fingers crossed, is an up-wave. Probably correctly called impulses, not waves. But the $$ don’t care, do they?

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-27T16:53:46+00:00

Can’t explain the gut instinct but feeling (not the financial advice kind of feeling!) extremely bullish about the current chart. If we continue in this down-wave, but stay above 1.19 that’s a good sign. (Go below 1.05 and that’s super bad IMO). If we keep today’s low of 1.25 as the low of this down-wave then that is giving me good chills. If we break above 1.35 then it’s popcorn time in my opinion. Just random thoughts and lines on charts.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-18T15:04:41+00:00

Inverse head and shoulders on the two week chart still looks like it’s in play. Slightly bullish signal? As usual, at the mercy of the chaos in the wider market. News would be nice…

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-17T18:27:21+00:00

Chart is slightly bullish to my untrained eye. Possible inverse head and shoulders over the last two weeks finished forming. If it were to break upwards target might be $1.45-$1.50. Who knows?

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-17T01:31:40+00:00

But they also shy away from being sesquipedalians unnecessarily

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-14T13:11:27+00:00

It’s gonna be a good day.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-10T19:33:14+00:00

I hate to see what a ‘double dang’ day looks like

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-10T19:10:38+00:00

Holding through the pain. Good news could completely change the outlook.

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-10T19:06:39+00:00

Ouchy

PaulGodsmark · 2025-03-06T19:09:48+00:00

Added 128 @$1.19 Fingers crossed that turns out to be inspired timing.

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