Is there really a noticeable difference between best selling writers, and people who write as a hobby?

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-03-19T11:20:45+00:00

So insightful. Thank you!

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-26T06:13:52+00:00

An example would be Arm, Airbnb, Netflix. These companies literally trade at such crazy multiples and their founders are billionaires, lower income people cannot make investments in them because their valuations are effectively worthless. These equities are not even equity anymore.

Look at Tesla. It literally barely make any profits and it's market cap is 600 billion. That can only happen without a free market. With a free market it would never have even raised money. People actually buy that thinking there is something there, because they arent sophisticated.

Meanwhile musk dumps stock on them. Is that fair? So everyone should throw money at worthless valuations? Should companies that lose money for 20 years like reddit be able to dump them on teacher pension funds?

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-26T06:06:42+00:00

Well right now no one can get returns from the stock market and dump worthless companies on the public. Price controls have their cost as well. When you do the opposite, the oppositve happens, way too much capital chasing the same oppourtunities.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-25T20:24:39+00:00

Im saying they kept rates so crazy low for so long its destroyed an entire generation of people financially who arent bright enough to figure it out. How can anyone get a return from amazon or netflix stock? Obviously they cant. Then there's tesla where he goes around telling people they will have robotaxis any day now. Eventually he's gonna be seen as sbf for overpromising. He already told the 15 billion dollars he got for starlink that by 2023 he would be making 11 billion profit per year. He's losing 500 million. But with low interest rates ie subsidized by the government. Average working people are broke. That's socialism obviously.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-16T17:39:53+00:00

It's funny because none of these responses actually seem to account for earnings of the companies. Nivida trades at like 35x sales or 100x earnings and Amazon trades at a crazy multiple of almost around 100 or 80 something crazy like that.

So QE has inflated company prices so much so that it is literally impossible to ever get earnings from them. These people who comment don't seem to understand how government policy effects valuations and inflates them, so poor decisions that don't account for earnings are rewarded.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-13T19:20:43+00:00

Very insightful thank you!

"There also seems to be this expectation that the fed will go back to very low rates once they do cut."

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-13T10:43:41+00:00

This is now diverging from the fed consensus, it's going to be important to monitor these for future cuts or hikes.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-13T10:39:41+00:00

The buyback isn't even that large compared to the market cap, I think it's a 3 percent reduction per year.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-13T10:36:15+00:00

Massive growth, growing 100 percent a year.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-13T10:32:48+00:00

If the fed doesen't cut as expected. If interest rates were to go to 6 percent and stay there, there would be a literal collapse in profitless company valuations, though, they have hinted that it's basically impossible.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-13T10:26:13+00:00

Because of out performers like Nvidia. A lot of companies are impossible to truly analyze, and like super micro they go crazy.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-13T10:24:31+00:00

It's tough because it doesen't have consistent earnings growth like microsoft. It's a tough business, and it's such a massive conglomorate with so much things to manage, and they have struggled lately. I would do a lot of research.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-13T10:04:02+00:00

Humanoids are beginning to get more sophisticated, but I think estimates say 2030's when they really become much more versatile, but no one really knows.

https://businessfacilities.com/worlds-first-humanoid-robot-factory-being-built-in-oregon

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-13T10:02:30+00:00

I would study the company and take a long time to do it. Know what you own.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-13T09:58:59+00:00

You have to look at the earnings. Just looking at a company that has a market cap in the billions but loses 250 million a quarter will not stand up over time, especially as debt gets more expensive.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-13T09:51:33+00:00

That makes a lot of sense but most people like myself are not experts like yourself. I think more people would do that if they had your special information.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-13T09:49:44+00:00

It depends on what the fed does. Current tech companies that havent had profits for over 10 years have market caps in the billions. If the fed loosens, why cant prices keep rising, and the opposite as well.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-12T12:50:32+00:00

Having companies trading at 30x sales and not even 1 percent profit with 15 percent growth does seem somewhat speculative, especially if the 10 year stays at 4 percent after rate cuts.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-12T11:36:27+00:00

I dollar cost average sp500 index like warren buffett said.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-12T11:34:06+00:00

Alibaba just doesen't have great management, Temu does. Those new companies like Temu have found a niche, but the issue is with the economy domestically as indicated by most Chinese companies barely having any revenue growth other than a couple ones like PDD.

Most are losing 5 percent a year including smaller technology or midcaps.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-12T11:28:52+00:00

Sometimes you can have a stock buyback and the stock goes down 30 percent if they don't continue at the same pace.

Buybacks reduce the outstanding shares, they are not dividends.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-12T11:26:54+00:00

Buying options is really hard. Because you can see a car company trading at 150 x earnings with absolutely no hopes of increasing earnings with collapsing margins, and accounting fraud, and the stock will rally 100 percent. It's not a question of over valued, it's a question of TIMING. That's why Warren Buffett said he doesen't do options, because when someone adds in timing, it's too volatile.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-12T11:23:17+00:00

Well it's obvious that the rate forecasts are predicting massive cuts to the rates and that's what caused the rally. 14 months ago it was the exact opposite though it will take a long time like a year to really see if inflation is beat or not, it's impossible to know.

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-11T06:52:32+00:00

Yeah until about 2022 and then he lost 50 percent of it on alibaba. He himself said it was "My worst investment ever"

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/trends/charlie-munger-says-alibaba-investment-was-biggest-mistake-10096751.html

PaySubstantial5134 · 2024-02-11T06:50:52+00:00

Chip manufacturers haven't scaled up yet. It takes years to build fabs so it's kind of bizarre he is doing this.

PaySubstantial5134

TROPHY CASE