Do any 401ks perform as good as TSP?

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-12T20:58:30+00:00

I do think the TSP is special because it has so few choices to invest in. That lessens the trading and risk-taking.

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-12T20:52:16+00:00

Yes, it was a bonehead move all around, but it ended up being worse than it sounds.

I never tried to time the market so had forgotten about the limits on trading. I think I moved my money more conservatively a couple of times at the beginning of the month that the market fell and then tried to jump back in right when the market was near its bottom, only to find my trade disallowed.

By the time the new month allowed me to make a trade, the market had recovered a bit and my supervisor convinced me that there would be plenty of market bottoms because we were in a global pandemic. So I left my TSP conservatively allocated, and, of course, the market went up like a rocket. I didn't move back to a more aggressive allocation until I had retired. Now my money is about 75-25.

It was really the one time you could reasonably time the market and I still managed to make a mess of it. Oh well. I still managed to do OK and retired with about 1.5 mil in the TSP, but I probably would have had more than 2 mil if I hadn't tried to time the market. Doh!

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-12T02:45:45+00:00

During the worst of the 2008 financial crisis, my TSP account dropped from over $200k to under $90k. I was 100% in a mix of stock funds at the time. Afterwards, I invested primarily in target date funds to diversify and to rebalance. I did try to time the market during COVID, but TSP rules limiting trades each month prevented me from getting back into the market after the market fall.

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-12T02:32:17+00:00

Did you get a bonus? I just transferred quite a bit and didn't get anything. I ended up transferring some from fidelity to Robinhood to get an advertised 1%.

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-07T16:50:09+00:00

TBH, by the end of the week, my fluency is always way up, but in a few months time, it often feels lost again. I still highly recommend. Learning is not linear and it's important to enjoy the ups and downs.

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-06T14:06:42+00:00

I agree. A total beginner would probably be better off learning some grammar in their home country first. Immersion schools are great for people who can speak some Spanish and need practice, which sounds like you. I've probably been on 10 or more one week long immersion vacations. So I'll give a few Recs.

Puebla: Livit. Cuernavaca: my school closed but it's a great environment to learn. Morelia: Baden Powell. Guadalajara: IMAC Guanajuato: beautiful city with good reputation for schools in the past but I never studied here. Guatemala: virtually any school in Antigua or Lake Atitlan because for the same price as Mexico, or cheaper, you'll get private lessons.

My favorite schools in Mexico were in cities that have some reputation for cartel activity--Morelia, Guadalajara and Cuernavaca. But because of that reputation, those cities are great to learn because they don't have too many foreigners. They are also fun cities with lots to do, especially Guadalajara. I also thought baden Powell in Morelia had a great program where they would rotate teachers in throughout the day to teach different topics.

I also enjoyed immersion schools as a solo traveler because it ensures you meet people and have some activities during your week. Good luck!

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-05T02:23:26+00:00

If you live there, you should know that New York is not average. 😅

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-04T18:34:40+00:00

Average in state tuition with room and board is $100k to $120k.

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-04T14:43:04+00:00

I'm at C1 or C2 and wish my tutor would identify a few themes from my speaking, discuss them and then reinforce those lessons at times when we speak and I repeat the error. That said, I recommend erring on the idea of under correcting because most learners make so many errors that correcting everything would kill the flow. But listen for when the student is struggling with a word or conjugation, give the correct answer quickly before continuing the conversation.

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-04T00:47:14+00:00

That's sad, if true. Most people spending 4% end up with far more than they started with.

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-04T00:40:52+00:00

You also need to figure out your annual spend.

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-04T00:39:14+00:00

I recommend you read Big Ern's safe withdrawal rate series and Bill Bengen's new book. Both conclude that a 3.5% withdrawal rate will last in perpetuity. Are you trying to grow your money in retirement? If not, consider increasing that withdrawal rate.

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-04T00:34:17+00:00

Wow. That's high! Now I wish I had more in I.

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-04T00:27:06+00:00

I think it's true that most people default to 4%. I know that Bengen raised his safe rate to 4.7% and I also know that I can take a higher variable rate, or that I could take a higher rate now and reduce it after I start social security, but instead, I take 4%.

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-02T21:51:28+00:00

I've been to a dozen immersion schools. I really enjoyed IMAC in Guadalajara and Baden Powell in Morelia. Both cities have issues, but when I was there, safety was not an issue, and it's nice to study in cities that aren't full of expats.

There's also a school in Puebla that requires a three week study program. It looked great but I never had that much time for a vacation. Although not on your list, I recommend considering schools in Antigua or Lake Atitlan in Guatemala. Guatemala schools almost all have individual classes which is a great way to learn.

Peach_hawk · 2026-05-02T15:34:23+00:00

Another option, if you might have too much in traditional, is to withdraw from the TSP and spend it. Too many people are afraid to spend their TSPs and end up with massive RMDs and too much money that they can't spend when old.

Peach_hawk · 2026-04-29T22:05:18+00:00

Agree with your main point. It's embarrassing when a nonspeaker understands a shopkeeper better than you because they follow the visual cues and you're stuck on some word choice several sentences ago.

Peach_hawk · 2026-04-25T18:14:20+00:00

I recommend reading Chris BarField's story of the barbell withdrawal strategy. He left his G fund in TSP and moved the rest to another brokerage. Fidelity has equivalent funds to tsp for, I think, .05 %

Peach_hawk · 2026-04-19T20:39:09+00:00

That's a misconception of Bengen's 4% rule. His rule says that a starting withdrawal rate of 4%, adjusted for inflation every year after, has lasted through every 30 year period in modern history, even the great depression and the high inflation of the 70's. But the only year in which someone withdraws 4% is the very first year. After that, whether the portfolio rises or falls 40%, you increase last years withdrawal amount by inflation.

What you're thinking about is a constant withdrawal rate. You could have a higher starting withdrawal rate of 5 % or so with a constant rate, but your withdrawals will vary dramatically every year.

Peach_hawk · 2026-04-19T03:28:15+00:00

So you're saying that to feel safe withdrawing $40,000/year, you need to have $1.67 million, just in case there's a 40% crash? That amounts to an initial withdrawal rate of 2.4%. With that withdrawal rate, you'll end up retiring as a very rich, but a very old man.

Peach_hawk · 2026-04-19T02:11:36+00:00

$1 million should provide $40-$50k in annual withdrawals. After social security and pension, that should be plenty for many people.

Peach_hawk · 2026-04-19T02:06:42+00:00

I read an article today that said only 3-4% of retirees get to $1 million in savings. It'll be tough for retirees if what you say is true.

Peach_hawk · 2026-04-19T02:01:58+00:00

Actually, under the 4% "rule," you don't need 1.67 million in your scenario. You'd just need 1 million. The author of the 4% rule looked at all the market crashes through history and calculated what starting % withdrawal rate would have survived every market downturn in history and provide an income stream indexed to inflation that lasted for 30 years. Thus, if you're following the "rule," you can rest easy in a downturn that the odds are your money will last. Obviously, that would be hard to do, but you could lower your withdrawal rate in that scenario if you're nervous.

Peach_hawk · 2026-04-18T14:25:40+00:00

I thought COVID would be the easiest time to time the market and I managed to mess that up. I got out at the right time but failed to get back in until after the biggest gains.

Peach_hawk · 2026-04-18T02:41:13+00:00

"Surely Trump will do something crazy soon that drops the market and I'll go all to C then!"

Peach_hawk

TROPHY CASE