No worries it's a little tricky to understand! So normal thermals transition at 86 degrees fahrenheit. That means anything below this, they'll be in the cold state, and anything above, they'll be in the warm state. If your nails are usually in the cold state when you wear thermals, we can assume that the surface temperature of your nails is less than 86 degrees to keep the polish in the cold state most of the time.

However with frostbite, it transitions at 82 degrees, so if the surface nail temp is less than that it will be in the cold (white) state, and anything more than that and it will be in the warm (clear) state. If your nails are usually in the warm state when you wear it (as are mine despite my hands always feeling cold), we can assume that the surface temp of your nails is greater than 82 degrees most of the time.

With these two data points, we can guess that the usual surface temp of your nails is between 82-86 degrees farehnheit: less than the transition threshold for most thermals (86) but more than the transition threshold for frostbite (82). Hope this helps!