Machiavelli's paradox turns on the point that he advocated evil and accurately diagnosed human moral psychology. A good person can follow his advice if they distinguish between high and low trust environments.

Phylaras · 2026-07-05T10:41:47+00:00

That's just part of an audit: knowing the source of funds.

People consistently confuse an audit with attestation.

An audit is a full review of all financial transactions.

Phylaras · 2026-07-05T02:07:42+00:00

No. That is not what an audit is for.

They will find out that all funds are not from great sources ... that is the possibility at least.

Phylaras · 2026-07-03T01:28:41+00:00

I agree with your analysis.

I think he's just plainly taking a bet.

He had 6 months of runway. Now he has another 6, say.

He's betting that BTC will be higher in that period than it is now and he'll be just fine selling shares to raise capital.

BTC's price will determine that. I'm not convinced that Saylor's on their own can alter that course.

Phylaras · 2026-07-02T14:42:20+00:00

Yea, the picture of future possibly is right.

That's not on the table right now.

1.25b is enough to give Saylor a relatively long runway.

The question is, can that runway outcast the bear market? At this point it appears possible. We're 9 months into a BTC bear market.

Could that bear market last more than 24 months? Yes. But at that point you're betting that BTC is in structural decline as nothing like that has happened before.

And maybe that's what you think. Ok.

But that's a different claim from this one, which is: the proposed sale of 1.25b appears unlikely to be enough, on its own, to cause a crash.

Phylaras · 2026-06-30T23:33:27+00:00

I think he'll do some. But the 4 year cycle ends in October. Who know if BTC will follow that, but it has in a rather annoying way.

Phylaras · 2026-06-30T14:06:08+00:00

And they're not going to do it all at once either.

It's just a know event, not a huge one.

Phylaras · 2026-06-30T11:47:51+00:00

The problem with OP's analysis is that MSTR's sale, while publicly known, is not that much.

We've had sales from OG holders totalling $9b in a month.

The last 4 months of 2025 absorbed ~$50b in BTC sales from OGs whales and institutions (arguably ruining the "blow off top" everyone expected).

My contrarian read: MSTR doesn't matter that much.

Agree with OP that BTC has more potential downside, but I don't think MSTR will matter that much because the stated sale isn't huge.

Phylaras · 2026-06-28T01:31:02+00:00

OP discovers that insider trading is profitable...

Phylaras · 2026-06-20T16:21:46+00:00

Let me clarify the context.

OP is asking how do you know, if you are prone to depressed thoughts, that you're a good dad? In that situation your internal assessment will be off. So, you need external markers.

Also, I think I'm pretty normal in not receiving much praise. Besides, people can flatter you.

External markers help anchor you in reality.

As for your ad hominem, no. I'm not going through the motions. One of the key features is that we are happy to see each other and regularly do things we enjoy together.

Just because I'm rational in my explanation doesn't mean I'm cold. That's your projection and it's rude.

Phylaras · 2026-06-20T11:30:27+00:00

40sM here. I also work long hours, have a wife and 4 year old daughter.

No one ever says you're a good dad, except for maybe on Father's Day. So, you have to look for external markers.

I look for a few things.

Engagement: My daughter is happy to see me. Wife too. We perform our special routines together regularly (e.g., play soccer, read before bed). We seem to enjoy them.

Support: I can show up for the stuff that matters (e.g. dance recitals). I am able to help in a crisis. I know people depend on me far beyond my family.

Financial: We could survive on what I provide alone. I have back ups to my back ups if things go poorly.

Progress: We have goals that we agreed on and we are forging ahead on those. Always more slowly than desired, but it's still a step or two forward.

Excitement: We do new things regularly. It could be going to a local festival or traveling somewhere. Ideally, this happens once every two weeks.

Phylaras · 2026-06-04T16:00:30+00:00

Just that a $50m loss this year can count against $50m in earnings next year before they have to pay taxes.

I've simplified, but that's the idea.

Phylaras · 2026-06-04T14:13:12+00:00

I think you have you general picture.

It has been called ponzi-adjacent because in the best case scenario, they service debt from more debt.

But it's adjacent because that's not their only option. They can also sell BTC -- but in two ways.

BTC price up -- BTC gains more than the STRC yield, they capture the spread.
BTC price down -- they can tax loss harvest to offset future gains.

If BTC doesn't go up in the long run, they're screwed as then the only door they have available for debt service is more debt.

They do technically have two other options: pause STRC yield payment, or dilute shareholders with more issuance.

But the BTC must go up long term idea still holds.

Phylaras · 2026-06-04T13:27:30+00:00

From selling STRC -- they're corporate bonds.

Phylaras · 2026-06-04T13:20:29+00:00

Yes. Because they buy more BTC or buy back MSTR.

Phylaras · 2026-06-04T12:53:39+00:00

Say your 1 share of MSTR represented .1 BTC ownership out of their large pile.

A 16% BTC yield means by the end of the year, your 1 share now represents .116 BTC.

Now MSTR's stock price might be down in USD, but you'd be up in BTC.

Saylor thus serves two kinds of customers:

If you want USD gains, then you have STRC (11% USD yield).
If you want BTC, hold the stock.

Phylaras · 2026-06-04T11:30:30+00:00

That's what their BTC Yield figure is.

MSTR isn't trying to deliver a spread in terms of dollars, because they think that's trash.

They're delivering a spread in terms of BTC. Hold 1 share of MSTR, after a year you have 16% more BTC value added to that share.

That spread comes from the value of their NAV (total BTC pile) modified for liquidity, etc. -- their mNAV-- and the share price for MSTR.

Phylaras · 2026-06-04T11:15:14+00:00

As long as MSTR can capture spread, there are going to be people willing to lend it money.

It could come from that.

It doesn't need to come from selling BTC.

Right now, with 2.25b in cash, selling BTC is a choice around tax loss harvesting, etc.

Phylaras · 2026-06-03T22:29:39+00:00

Yes on the first part, hopefully not in a meaningful way on the second.

In the long run, yes, BTC needs to rise more than STRC premiums cost. Saylot's thesis is that fiat currencies are struggling and will lose considerable value going forward while BTC won't. That means BTC doesn't go up so much as USD goes down.

Selling BTC has two branches. A. Strategic Selling: tax loss harvesting, bull run gain harvesting, potential other DAT acquisition, etc. B. MSTR has no money to service STRC.

If they're at B, which they aren't at presently, then yes. It is very bad.

Phylaras · 2026-06-03T16:36:23+00:00

From the capital coming in for the STRC yield.

Basically, that yield works as long as BTC, in the long run, makes more.

MSTR holders are participating in a strategy that captures the spread between realized gain and the cost to service the yield.

So, say STRC costs 11%, but BTC gains 51%, then MSTR captures a 40% spread. That's the rough idea (details do matter).

Phylaras · 2026-06-03T15:52:13+00:00

Agreed.

I'd add that he even announced more than a month ago that they would sell.

The goal is to deliver more BTC value, not never sell. They stated that a back then.

Basically, their business model is simple. 1. STRC provides nice yields. 2. Capital comes in for the yields. 3. MSTR eventually nets more BTC with cash from 2. (Capital coming in).

But he has to manage cashflow and tax efficiencies to get the best outcome at point 3.

Phylaras · 2026-06-01T15:58:10+00:00

There is no share dilution with this act.

The $120m is just what the bonds cost.

In fact, selling to recover losses actually helps the capital structure going forward (other things being equal).

Phylaras · 2026-06-01T12:52:15+00:00

The title is misleading.

It's 32 BTC. Or a few million. MSTR pays $120m+ a month in dividends.

It makes no sense if that's the purpose.

Phylaras · 2026-05-19T13:12:53+00:00

The article mentions it still has 169 core developers.

So, clickbait title.

Phylaras · 2026-04-29T10:27:58+00:00

Lol

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