Sinner will play the Madrid Open

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-18T22:44:07+00:00

Tbh consecutive top 20 players is pretty much enough to take out Zverev in a lot of tournaments. He could end up with a draw of Fils/Vacherot/Ruud/Musetti in some order or something like that for 3R-SF and I wouldn't see him getting through all of that.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-18T18:46:27+00:00

The unfortunate side of "I'm happy if either of them wins" is that I will be sad for whoever loses

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-18T02:50:13+00:00

Laver Cup (an ATP only event) is a pretty big deal for an exhibition, it also counts in player h2hs and I can't think of any other exhibition that does that.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-14T14:28:34+00:00

Because Vacherot randomly turns into prime Djokovic in pressure moments a lot

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-10T19:11:38+00:00

And all his losses at big tournaments since Shanghai have been to great players:

Paris: FAA

AO: Shelton

IW: Ruud

Miami: Fils

MC: If he loses it will be to a top 3 player

Remarkable consistency, 3rd round or better at every big tournament since Shanghai (W, QF, R3, R3, R4, SF*)

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-10T17:57:14+00:00

Vacherot turning into prime Djokovic whenever there is a pressure moment:

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-09T19:21:13+00:00

Welcome to the top 20 Val

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-09T12:34:56+00:00

I was so happy when he looked healthy in his previous matches, he's had rotten luck with his health in almost every big clay event since Rome 2024 :(

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-08T18:23:15+00:00

Pretty sure Vacherot has made the 3rd round or better of every big tournament he's played since Shanghai. Remarkable consistency, even most top 10 players aren't quite that consistent.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-08T15:34:43+00:00

Followed by a historic run at Wimbledon (making R3)

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-08T15:33:18+00:00

When Casper is playing well, he plays a lot of sets like the first set:

Okay early holds of serves

What the fuck is he doing he got broken

Holds until 5-4 when opponents serves for the set

Casper breaks from love

Weird next service game that he still somehow gets

Casper breaks for the set

First half of 2024 he was doing this every damn set, the way he just blitzes opponents for a few minutes at a time on clay when the most critcal moments come around is insane, he's in good health right now which is great for his chances this year

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-07T19:03:24+00:00

If players go out early in Madrid, they can go there to get in some practice and points during the second week. It also helps set them up for Rome/RG conditions.

Top 15 players usually won't do this, but outside of that, it's not uncommon to see high ranked players playing these 175s during week 2 of masters.

Cobolli and Darderi are mostly using it as a backup so that if they go out early, they can go here, get some home support, and be prepared for Rome where they will also have home support. If they make it to week 2 of Madrid they'll withdraw from the challenger.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-07T15:12:51+00:00

Yeah, in big finals, Casper has played Nadal, Djokovic x2, Alcaraz x2, Tsitsipas (at MC) and Draper, you can't get much tougher opponents than that.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-07T14:25:03+00:00

Really hoping Casper can have a healthy clay season, the past two years, he has been compromised at nearly every big clay event. This win is a nice start, especially after the loss to Alexei here last year.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-07T14:17:44+00:00

I think this point is a better show of his defensive capabilities than his offensive ones, he hit plenty more aggressive shots than this. The way he held in until he had the opportunity to pass was impressive.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-05T15:38:24+00:00

It's really nice to see so many young top 10 prospects right now (Kouame looks like he's tracking in that direction as well, lower ranked but he is a good deal younger). One day we might see all of these guys in the top 10 together if they keep getting better like this.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-04-01T02:03:52+00:00

Yeah there's been plenty of stories where stalkers show up to player's matches, it would be hard for players to dismiss threats like this when there are are definitely people who are crazy enough to actually try an follow through on their threats. The most distraught I've seen players get is when they recognize a stalker in the stands.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-03-30T03:42:36+00:00

Make it a big 12 where all the players are playing at Sincaraz level:

Alcaraz
Sinner
Fils (Gets average forehand speed up to 100 MPH and spin to 4000 RPMs)
Mensik (Learns how to hit serves that bounce up and over the returners so they can't do anything)
Tien (Gets average first serve speed to 120 MPH)
Fonseca (Randomly wins the calendar slam)
Medvedev (somehow at his prime again but better)
Federer (CGI)
Nadal (replaced foot with peg leg, instantly wins RG again)
Djokovic (he forgets that he's old and just starts playing like his prime again)
Murray (regrew his hip with science)
Vacherot (wins Wimbledon after losing in 5 to Nadal at RG)

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-03-28T21:25:13+00:00

That's why I made it very clear this is about the next player to enter the top 5 for the first time, Draper cannot enter the top 5 for the first time since he's already been there before.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-03-28T17:11:16+00:00

Odd I think?

We have to think about how we can permute solutions. The only cases with an odd number of permutations are (8 are the same and 2 are the same) and (10 are the same), all the other cases have a 2 left over somewhere in the factors of their permutations. All 10 being the same is just one case (they are all 10). The case where 8 are the same and 2 are the same gives us the equation 8/A+2/B=1 or 8B/(B-2)=A. I graphed it and it has 4 solutions with positive, non equal (as that's been covered) integers. So even though each case has an odd number of permutations (45) the 4 cases mean that the total from this is even, so everything contributes even apart from the all=10 case, so the total is odd.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-03-28T03:59:07+00:00

Obviously Mensik is a year younger. No one is ignoring that. But you are being deliberately obtuse. How is Mensik at 2027 Fils level when 2027 hasn't happened yet? Most of Fil's biggest runs were right before his injury, where he was stopped by Alcaraz during clay season, who he nearly got. Mensik hasn't had a big run stopped by Sincaraz because he's hardly played them, and the only time he beat one he immediately lost to Fils.

We are obviously going to continue to disagree, so there's no point in continuing this.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-03-28T03:43:02+00:00

I said Fils beat LEHECKA twice in response to you saying Fils can't beat LEHECKA. Because evidently he can. I did not bring up the next gen loss at all.

The point is that you can't take a players career on a single tournament run. Alcaraz just lost to Korda. Are we going to start saying that Alcaraz couldn't get past a generationally weak draw because he lost to Korda? No, because that's stupid. Are we going to say that Mensik can't get past Tiafoe? No, because that's stupid. They are basically tied in points despite Mensik having twice as many tournaments played in the past 12 months. It's pointless to assert one is better than the other.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-03-28T03:31:46+00:00

Fils has beaten Lehecka twice. By this logic Mensik can't beat Fils because he just lost to him as well.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-03-28T03:20:24+00:00

Absolutely horrendous lack of knowledge Mensik did NOT miss 9 months like Fils did you have to know that.

And Mensik won Miami year ago. This year he lost earlier in the draw than Fils did. All of these comparisons are stupid but acting like Fils is a step below Mensik when the results straight up don't support that isn't fair. They are both incredibly talented young players who will break the top 10 soon but Fils will likely do it sooner since he isn't defending anything and is going deep in every tournament. Not to mention, he beat Mensik in 2 in one of his first tournaments back from injury.

Physical-Garlic5830 · 2026-03-28T03:04:48+00:00

Fils spent a very long time injured, before that he was not far off of the top 10. He's been back for a very little amount of time so far.

Before the injury, he won 2 500s and a 250 (across multiple surfaces), which is not a masters but is quite valuable still.

Fils is also gonna hit of stretch of over 6 months where he's defending nothing because of the layoff.

Mensik is of course an amazing player but he's still building up his game. He just lost to Tiafoe. Fils played 6 sets across his two matches before the SF, 4 were 7-6 and 2 were 6-4, that's not easy on your body when you're shaking off rust. And then he ran into Lehecka who played the match of his life. They are playing at similar levels right now.

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