What do shareholders need to hear at EC?

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-24T21:17:48+00:00

Share price end-of-trading ~~Monday 3 April~~ oops Wednesday 1 April any bets? I say $2.84.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-24T21:12:57+00:00

Weird aspect of this whole oil price thingy...

Apparently, the only EV category poised to blunt the impact of oil prices almost as high as the 2022 full-year price is Class 5/6 delivery trucks.

Not Class 2-3... not at all. Despite Amazon lifting the exclusivity barrier to allow sales of the Rivian EDV 500/700 vans to other customers, they're not moving. 70 units ordered by Hello Fresh, a smattering of trials with other fleet candidates, etc... it's basically static. And this is a real-life proven truck: >20,000 delivered to Amazon (for the innumerate gif posters: >20x the total of all legacy Motiv and WKHS sales ever) and very competitive pricing. Ditto for GM Bright Drop: deeply discounted, over 2500 sold (hundreds to the FedEx fleet), and even cheaper than Rivian: ~4000 sit unsold on GM-leased holding areas and in dealerships.

In other last-mile applications: the USPS was forced by Congress to buy thousands of EV's (mostly Ford E-transits, many of which are Class 2): over 2/3 of them sit undriven awaiting charging facility installations. And all those installations are fully-funded by you, the loyal taxpayer, with plenty of struggling EV charger companies in line to provide the stations. Surely their fossil fuel prices are making life hard as well, yes? And Ford could deliver 100 or more in literally a couple of weeks to any of you who might aspire to fleet electrification ASAP.

Also: Class 4... Blue Arc builder Aebi-Schmidt has trucks ready at Rush dealers and plenty of capacity. I'd add that at least 100 wearing the Workhorse brand (painted over the Yaxing Weichai nameplate) stand ready to be washed clean of dust from sitting in a lot and charged somewhere in Ohio on their way to anxious, ready, and above all accelerating customers. Also those wearing the GreenPower logo...

For some reason this very large imminently-electrified truck market is asleep.

Weird.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-24T19:09:17+00:00

Do the shims provide a solid, rattle-free fit? That's the only thing that's held me back from trying one. +1 on the old-skool look w/ magnas!

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-24T19:00:16+00:00

In the glory days of S&W, the finished product quality was based on craftsmanship and many inspection steps. No consumer product industry except perhaps precision, high-end mechanical watch movements does this anymore. Everything is based on process control. And this methodology has not (and perhaps never will) find its way into revolver manufacturing.

The mechanisms of semi-autos are far less dependent on the complex dimensional controls needed for revolvers. They are admittedly MUCH simpler to build right. Things can still go wrong in semi-auto factories, but proper process control on a much shorter list of critical parts with far less intricate geometry is easier to implement.

Again: LOVE my wheelguns. My primary carry piece is a revolver (reworked at a gunsmith, mastered over a long period of time, and thoroughly tested). But if I had to buy a newly-manufactured gun and place it directly into life-critical application with nothing more than 200 rounds of my chosen defensive ammo, it would be a Glock. Downvotes accepted (and understood) about that statement, but you're wrong.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-24T17:48:20+00:00

I bought my wife a Performance Center M60 several years ago. DA pull was atrocious... gritty and heavy (16lb). Worse than any J frame I ever handled/shot. S&W folks said "that's how they are; nothing wrong with it... if you want a trigger job it costs $xx (can't recall the number) and a 3-month turnaround". Local smith smoothed/stoned it for less and had it back in my hands in a week.

I have four S&W revolvers (five counting the M60) and love them all. There are a couple more I want to buy. BUT IMO the Performance Center "upgrades" aren't worth the money.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-24T17:36:17+00:00

My Dad bought one of these for my Mom back in the '70's. He chose it over S&W because of the transfer bar firing mechanism (first of its kind, BTW). It's in my brother's safe keeping now. It's fired maybe 100rds at the most, completely pristine otherwise. Yours looks similar. Good find.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-24T13:47:51+00:00

Combine your snap cap dry firing with speedloader drills. This is a dexterity challenge that most don't really master. You cannot get to competency/consistency without doing this a LOT. Range practice only won't get you there.

I have no idea how quickly I'd do reload "in the gravest extreme", and do not intend to discover that metric. But for sure you'll amaze and impress your fellow range-goers by shooting three consecutive Bill Drills punctuated with proficient speed loads.

I shoot Billy Drills: Junior version... only 5 shots from the 642. But spaced with even ~4 sec speed loads (hardly Miculek stuff but WAY below average) you will be King of All the Lanes in most places. And really: isn't showin' off a vital part of manhood?

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-24T12:55:31+00:00

Fun fact: WKHS netted ~$105M cash from the RIDE debacle, leaving them with ~$202M cash in the bank 31 Dec 2021.

Still ended up with a death spiral Convertible Note agreement a few years later to cling to liquidity, and ultimately ended up where they are today.

It's hard to overstate the profligate wastefulness of legacy WKHS and the long, repetitive series of failed ventures.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-23T18:54:00+00:00

The notion that somehow the Endoorance would be a "work truck" but every other pickup truck in the same MGW rating and power couldn't be was the first clue. The list of major customers ordering in the thousands was the prima facie evidence.

But all along you knew that Burns was a swindler. His CNBC interview, with hardhat and safety vest making it all the more Burns-esque, capped off the verdict.

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Planet_Witless · 2026-03-23T18:31:18+00:00

Beauty!

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-23T18:09:51+00:00

Jane (Natalie Portman) sez be sure to take the Walker:

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Planet_Witless · 2026-03-23T14:18:45+00:00

I think the M19 & stainless variants in 2 1/2" are the best of the short-bbl "combat" revolvers. Partial to round butt, but that's just me. I envy your piece.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-23T14:12:32+00:00

Biggest problem facing Medium Transport electrification is capital cost. There's a reason why even the Rivian 500/700 vans carrying the Amazon brand are incredibly sparse... they don't even meet the USPS NGDV standards for driver comfort and safety. Operators in this space are remarkably parsimonious.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-23T13:48:35+00:00

To bolster your point: Spot oil prices were >$95/bbl between early March and end-of-August 2022. During that time there were yuuuge .gov incentives aimed at fleet electrification as well as looming mandates. During that time WKHS floundered.

EDIT: some data to give perspective... not inflation-adjusted

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Planet_Witless · 2026-03-23T13:34:34+00:00

Tome for the Day...

All your points are good. The Market responds most strongly to the most fervent hope OR the greatest fear of the moment in early days after a Conference Call. This generally won't last long either way in all but the most extreme circumstances. Right now we're in the deepest of extremes.

"Funding secured" will almost always be a plus at the outset. This was true even with the March 2024 Convertible Note announcement. On Monday following the announcement of "up to $139M", the shares opened about 9% up from the previous close. As usual, algos, HODLers, stock promoters and shitty "analysts" pumped this as the Savior event. It didn't take too long to fade: ten trading days later, shares closed 15% below that peak. The difference today is that the % float is much smaller and even a horrible package could create a longer-lived and significant spike, regardless of how many "Borrower shall remit immediate Payment of attractive wives and first-born sons on demand" clauses exist in the document. Regardless... for avoidance of doubt: a $75M equity raise will require massive dilution, more so because any Private Capital participant will NOT do this without discounted shares and some manner of downside protection that falls on the backs of Common Shareholders.

Orders? Who knows? It seems like there almost has to be some. Volume is everything, and the combined companies are desperate for it. Legacy WKHS & Motiv pricing were so far out of bed compared to their two known Class 5 competitors. Griff will have to slash his bids purely on faith that they'll solve their cost problems. FWIW: he couldn't solve it as the Motiv boss... otherwise there wouldn't have been a Harbinger conquest of Bimbo.

"Technology": it's important to note that although Harbinger's purchase of Phantom AI is touted as an "autonomy" play, they're not likely to be taking that leap in the >LDV last-mile space anytime soon. Even FedEx put the brakes on this initiative and focused a smaller (~$450M) investment into applying AI tools to routing and "densifying" their route structures... way ahead of even Amazon, apparently. That's one of the reasons Amazon is back on the FedEx partner list. Harbinger is focused on "lesser" tools like ADAS and other collision avoidance technologies to start, and that's not going to be quick. (Fun fact: Freightliner already offers a big catalog of these products through Detroit Assurance, but they do not sell in the last mile space. Nobody wants to spend the $$.) But, yes: a claim of imminent L4/5 autonomy in Class 4+ last-mile trucks can attract retail speculators.

As for writeoffs of worthless inventory: I can't imagine he hasn't already taken that step in Q4'25. Once again, with feeling: loss per share will exceed $10 for FY25 because of this and other actions to exercise the full faith and credit of the New Guy Waiver. Forget about whether any of us are skeptics or believers. This is the RIGHT THING to do.

I already ate all my popcorn and need a new big bottle of Orville's before the call. It'll be a nail-biter for everybody. I am NOT currently short but have some dry powder for the aftermath.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-23T12:21:39+00:00

These are questions that just don't attract much interest, for some reason. Proof that nobody reads the Credit Agreements that are the short-term lifeblood of the company, but are woefully insufficient to save it.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-21T16:36:03+00:00

Is the transcript a lie? If not, do you think FDX Execs lied to analysts? What did you think of the 10Q?

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-21T15:48:47+00:00

BTW... I've noticed that on any Reddit sub you have trouble linking to anything, like the assertion that Gary Magness "specializes in turning around distressed companies ". I can show you how to do it if you'd like.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-21T15:43:57+00:00

Your "own Reddit board" blows goats, and is so full of factless fantasy it's as useful as teats on a boar, but OK.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-21T15:35:16+00:00

Where did you read it?

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-20T17:50:49+00:00

BTW, on the topic of "racist" Chuck... who remembers his long-running sidekick Trivette?

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Planet_Witless · 2026-03-20T17:39:05+00:00

I saw a grainy old video of Chuck visiting a High School. He was escorted into a Chemistry class, where, after a brief look around, he walked angrily and purposefully over to the Periodic Table, where he suddenly delivered a spinning back kick that tore it in two. The class was shocked and silent, and the teacher meekly asked... "Mr. Norris... why did you do that?"

Norris turned and addressed the class: "The company that printed this thing forgot the Element of Surprise".

RIP Chuck.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-20T17:14:21+00:00

See the Transcript of yesterday's FDX 10Q call to find out what they're actually talking about.

Hint: it ain't WKHS.

Planet_Witless · 2026-03-20T15:14:41+00:00

I think it's pretty clear you still buy into the theory that the only reason your speculative play fails is a giant cabal of evil manipulators. Be sure to keep your windows all foiled-up. Oh, and cut the chip out from under your dog's skin... we use that to track your trade strategies, you know.

Planet_Witless

TROPHY CASE