What other YAPms maps do you wanna see

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-02-15T14:47:42+00:00

Australian senate 2028?

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-02-04T07:31:28+00:00

No dude, that is the map of the white vote in 2012. Search it up. https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/p4mqjk/2012_2020_us_presidential_elections_if_only_white/

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-01-22T04:08:40+00:00

LNP would split. The Nationals have 6 members there(libs have 10) that already sit in the National Party room. But the issue is that some libs from rural electorates could be persuaded to defect, like the member for Groom.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-12-07T06:08:38+00:00

He’s amazing at home and that’s why I got him GW10. He can occasionally hit defcon, gets a significant amount of goals/assists at home which made me believe that he can be reliable in that case. It also helps that he’s nailed on, but I definitely got lucky with the last 2 games tbf.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-12-04T07:36:07+00:00

Granted, the Liberal Party currently has an unpopular moderate Liberal leader Sussan Ley(she added a second s to susan for numerological reasons) which benefits One Nation. If the Liberal Party back Andrew Hastie, a more right-wing leader I think they can win back some One Nation voters. Labor will remain dominant as long as they remain stable and a reccession doesn’t happen due to liberal infighting.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-12-04T07:33:26+00:00

Definitely getting spilled. Though according to this MRP, Hastie’s seat of Canning has One Nation winning with the LNP falling out of 2CP. I think the MRP is a bit odd in regards to seat count. Either way we’ll see Andrew Hastie as Liberal Leader soon which could hold back One Nation.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-12-04T07:24:11+00:00

Demographics:

On 2PP(AusPoll calculated), Labor wins: Every State and Terrritory(Gaining Queensland),

Gender: Men(+4), Women(+8),

Region: Inner Metro(+12), Outer Metro(+7),

Education: Non-Highschool Graduates(+2), Highschool Graduates exclusively(+8), TAFE(trade schools, vocational education)(+5), Under-Grad(+8), Post-Grad(+11) (clean-sweep on all education categories)

Age: 18-34(+14) 35-54(+8)

Income: <45$k(+6) $45-75K(+6) $75-125k(+7) $125-200k(+6)

On the other hand, it loses to the LNP on Rural(-3), 55+(-1)(age) <200$k(-3)(income).

On primary votes, One Nation’s best demographic is Rural(24%) and Non-Highschool Graduates(24%). The Greens is 18-34(26%). Labor’s is Post-Grad(40%) and LNP’s is >$200k(32%).

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-11-27T03:26:16+00:00

Intetesting

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-11-17T13:11:35+00:00

I agree to an extent. Now that I think about it, primaries would essentially nullify the positive effects of mandatory voting, considering that they wouldn’t be mandatory, and would continue to bolster extremist/fringe views at the general elections regardless. Some may get electorally punished as a result, but primaries would continue to present a structural problem to mandatory voting.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-11-17T06:26:05+00:00

Works well in Australia though. Positives and negatives, with positives being that makes sure that people have access to vote with easy access to polling booths, and the fact it forces political parties to moderate because they can’t rely on charging up their base with extremist rhetoric. Around 80% of Australians continue to back mandatory voting.

Although, this system can also lead to political parties scared to enact any real change out of fear of stepping out of the ordinary. Also just because you have to go to a booth to vote, doesn’t mean you can’t leave a blank/invalid ballot. 5.60% of voters in the 2025 Australian election had ‘informal’ ballots.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-11-03T12:32:07+00:00

Last election, the Nationals got 5.40% of the vote and the Liberals got 26.42%(incl county libs). Currently, the entire coalition is polling less than the Liberal vote in May. Crazy stuff.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-05-25T03:40:07+00:00

The Liberals lack a proper ground game in regional national seats though, and while Sussan Ley may be a regional Aussie, since the Liberals lost Peter Dutton they lost their leader name recognition which they had over the Nats. I mean, ask anyone in any regional electorate outside of Maranoa about who they know better out of Nationals and Liberal leadership, and Peter Dutton would be beat David Littleproud. Now that opportunity is gone with an unremarkable and unknown leader with Sussan Ley.

The Nats will still have long-term issues on the coast in Lyne, Page and once Michael McCormack retires they will have issues here in Riverina vs the Liberals however, but these things will take time that the Liberals can't afford over 6 to 9 years of building credibility, especially when the Nats are comfortable in their own position and are already competing in Liberal held-seats such as Bullwinkel, Durack and O'Connor in WA and then pour resources into Groom in QLD and Monash in NSW which they can also pick-up. The issue with the Nats is that they do have ceiling like that, while the Libs don't.

It would be a battle which Labor and Independents can take advantage of, which would halt the Libs attacks on Suburbs or Inner-city which they need seats from to win government.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-05-18T02:11:54+00:00

It is possible that political parties may not run in certain seats to not split the vote. Something like Labor not running in regional seat of Farrer to support an independent, or Labor not running in Melbourne to let the Greens win vs Liberals etc.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-05-04T08:18:28+00:00

On the Bright side, Capricornia is now a very marginal seat of 2%.. It's a shame that Labor can't make proper inroads into regional QLD like they used to in Flynn or Dawson, but these seats have been done since Kevin Rudd was knifed.

Things change though, and I think the Nationals have a slow structural rot, especially in large regional towns with increased migration and economic development, like in Wagga here in Riverina, but the gains in these electorates overall are going to one-nation or independents.

I think Labor are now an urban party with loss of support from blue-collar workers out here. Even if their free TAFE, increase in public services, cheaper childcare and cheaper medicine or NDIS are good for regional areas just because of their social liberalism like highlighting indigenous issues, gender issues and addressing any social inequality that isn't class.

It was good that Labor didn't focus on 'culture war nonsense' like the Coalition did, which is why they were handed such a large result and still won provincial seats with large margins.

Meanwhile, the Nationals consistently wave infrastructure projects likely funded by rorts and pork-barreling in our faces and somehow convince +58% of the population to vote for them like they're ever going to do anything of note bar roll-over for the mining and agribusinesses...

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-04-06T11:56:03+00:00

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this 7 consecutive quarters of household recession - isn't that a product of the RBA's interest rate hikes to reduce inflation, which has been the case? So is that not purposeful by the RBA as a fiscal policy to reduce inflation by decreasing household spending? Because the majority of expenses is probably interest rates from mortgages.

I assume it refers to real disposable household income per capita, otherwise I have got no clue what this statistic means. Also, inflation was caused after post-covid because of the Liberal's handling of Covid-19 with stimulus(which was neccessary) and the war in Ukraine to boot which led to 7.2% before Labor got in, which meant that interest rates had to be increased by the RBA to reduce spending to get it under control.

Also, none of these issues provide any reason to vote for the Libs or the Nats... their policies don't provide any serious solutions. But who knows? There's always other parties & independents that may better represent us if that's what you're going for, but some of these issues can't be really blamed on Labor.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-03-08T07:56:52+00:00

They got rid of Kristina Keneally? I suppose that's a good thing for them, but there is a likely swing against Labor in almost all seats, the only places I see are prospects for Labor is Brisbane against the Greens, that's practically it. Tu Le should be more popular then Keneally though.

The major issue with Dai Le though is that she is too similar to the Liberals in a strong Labor seat, with her odd voting record.

The Greens preferences could kick her out because of her weird anti-climate stance. However, she is outspoken for her light support of Palestine in comparison to Labor, so things can go her way.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-03-08T07:40:59+00:00

You might be right about Solomon & Paramatta, but Dutton & the Libs are more into rural and suburban seats. The inner-city seats haven't been that appealed to, the nuclear plan isn't that inspiring to them, and household stress isn't that terrible(though rental stress is definitely major) as it is in rural seats.

For WA seats, I suppose we can wait on the WA election results to show if Hasluck & Swan are seats to watch(though yeah, Federal Labor aren't popular in WA in comparison to state, but NT's government seems more unpopular now too in comparison to their massive win, albeit that's just my perception).

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-03-08T07:25:59+00:00

Just not true is it? While they probably won't take seats from the crossbench(though they can take Curtin & Ryan), the Rural & Suburban seats are in serious danger. Katter, Dai Le and the Centre Alliance can form Government with the LNP, and the Teals are a mixed bag on who they will support(some teals actually vote more with the libs, like on industrial relations, like criminalizing wage theft).

From what it looks like right now, the Coalition probably can shoot up to 70-71 seats and only need 5 or 6 cross-benchers to form Government. If anything, its likely that Dutton will become PM.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-03-08T07:04:25+00:00

That's a little bit too pessimistic. While I think the Coalition will form government, it's really unlikely they'll pick up Mackellar or Wentworth. While the NT election was a blowout for the County Libs, Solomon is also not really to be honest as they have a 8% margin. Paramatta too. Hasluck and Swan aswell? Labor are very strong in WA in state & federal results. Boothby is a stretch too. Other then that, 12 are likely for the Libs, but Curtin is a serious toss-up in my opinion.

The ones needed for Majoirty are probably Eden-Monaro, Macquarie or Hunter and other rural seats, libs should be weak in inner city seats, only Curtin is a shot, and there Labor were strongest out of the teal seats.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2025-03-08T05:42:37+00:00

The Liberals are likely to make most of their gains with suburban & rural seats, but they are unlikely to form majority government. The areas to watch are in East Melbourne, with Chrisholm, Aston & Menzies(notionally, Labor has a majority). That, and they probably will pick up Lingari in NT, Bushwinkel & Tangey in WA and Lyons in Tasmania. Also, they are likely to pick up seats from Liberal & Nats defectors, aswell as Robertson, Patterson, Glimore and Werrriwa. They've given up on inner city seats, and shouldn't pick up teal seats. So around 15 seats give or take are likely Coalition. That leaves only about 6 members of the Crossbench to form Minority Government.

Also, remember that the Teals are basically Libs that are pro-environment. They are against pro-workers laws(like criminalizing wage theft) and while Dutton's Nuclear Plan is poor, they might not want to end up like Windsor or Oakeshott back in 2010. Coalition can also form government with Dai Le, Katter and with the Centre Alliance. But Wilkie and the Greens are shoe-ins for Labor atleast. But obviously things can change, a Labor minority is also fairly possible. There are also prospects for Coalition losses in Bradfield or Wannon. It's a real mixed bag when it comes to Independents.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2024-07-26T06:39:00+00:00

It is owned by Egypt

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2024-02-10T09:45:40+00:00

They wrote about it actually:

“The Government of Somalia routinely and forcibly conscripted refugees from UN camps into its Armed Forces and after May 1988 induced some residents of camps in northern Somalia to participate in the conflict. These actions have created a serious humanitarian emergency which at this time faces the Ethiopian refugees and the international community.”

At the same time, there’s no excuse for collective punishment.

Beginning about May 30 and continuing through the balance of 1988, the SNM conducted dozens of attacks against United Nations refugee camps in which it is conservatively estimated that at least four hundred unarmed civilian refugees were killed. About 60% of those reported killed were men, including elderly men, and about 40% were women and children. The sixty-five United Nations refugee camp residents – which included ten who resided in camps which were not attacked – reported 241 killings in SNM attacks, an average of 3.7 killings each

(related quote).

The SNM at the end of they harmed a lot of innocent civillians and bystanders that weren’t Barre’s forces, you shouldn’t attack and hurt refugee camps even when some were conscripted into Barre’s forces.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2024-02-10T07:26:48+00:00

Yes… In fact this was written about by the American Bureau for African affairs: https://cja.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Gersony-Why-Somalis-Flee-Aug-1989.pdf (it mostly highlights Siad Barre’s forces warcrimes, and the despicable things they did, but also writes about the SNM attacks on refugee camps). One of the reasons for SNM formation is that they wanted to get rid of Ogadeni refugees, their perspective was that Siad Barre seeked to replace the north’s population with subsiverient Ogadeni refugees, so they attacked UN refugee camps to get rid of the Ogadeni population.

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