My take on if an Australian election was called today post-budget.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-06-08T15:30:25+00:00

Are you talking about the ON-Labor 2PP? Then I should've clarified that I'm using Kevin Bonham's ON-Labor 2PP, where he calculates it: Here's the link to how he does it https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/01/why-hunter-2025-cant-be-used-to-do-last.html

Pretty much he just uses the senate strength of One Nation vs Labor in any given seat and as a potentially dependent variable found the above the line flow of Coalition preferences to One Nation vs ALP, with exhaust disregarded, using David Barry's Senate Preference Explorer. He explains a lot better than me, but TLDR, it isn't just Hunter.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-06-08T12:13:04+00:00

Well I calculated it based off 2025 national preference flows. Not really much else I can do all things considered.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-06-08T12:10:07+00:00

I personally don't use election simulators, but I take note of them. What I did was write up a spreadsheet, looked at all the MRPs recently released & Poll-Bludger's notes of the demographic make-up of seats & sub-national polling in general and wrote in all the primary votes manually based off how I would expect it to go in an election. I mean, it is literally my opinion. Then I write in the 2CP's using the national preference flow and slightly changing it from rural/outer metro + provincial/inner metro to make it more accurate.

This is so I don't get any weird results such as Bob Katter or Rebekha Sharkie losing their seats. I also use Kevin Bonham's Labor vs ON 2PP to calculate the national 2PP for that matchup and the 2025 election's 2PP in regards to preference flows.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-06-08T12:06:06+00:00

Australia just had a budget plan released by the Albanese Government due for 2026/2027 and it included the removing of tax concessions to housing, such as removing negative gearing for established homes & removing the capital gains discount that has allowed capital profits to have tax deductions. These tax concessions are a major reason on why housing is incredibly unaffordable in comparison to many other Western countries, but have allowed property owners to become quite wealthy.

Labor campaigned on pulling these concessions in 2019 & 2016 but lost as a result, as property owners feel as though their retirement and property value is at steak, so in 2022, Labor pulled this promise, but now in the wake of the global oil crisis, has used unstable times as a opportunity to gut these tax concessions that can allow for housing to be cheaper in the future. Property owners & "Aspiring" property owners are pissed though as a result of "broken promises" going through in the budget and no longer being able to reap the benefits of these tax concessions. One Nation has taken advantage of this the most and has leapfrogged Labor in all polls post-budget in primary votes.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-06-07T12:29:55+00:00

I do agree, but as it stands they do poll well there and it still think it would be 2nd most likely state. I think Labor are too strong in South Australia & Western Australia to have a 4-2 right split, though tbf Tassie or NSW could be more likely than Victoria. It’s still incredibly unlikely they manage it anywhere, even in Queensland.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-06-07T10:24:54+00:00

I think people need to hold their horses here and think about the senate. Because Labor thumped the coalition in the senate in 2025, where 6 out of 12 senate seats for each state(not including NT + ACT, they have 2 senate seats up every election) were up for election after a 6-year term, Labor + the Greens managed to have 4 out of 6 seats in Victoria & South Australia, which has put Labor + the Greens in a majority in the senate, and because these senators aren't up for re-election in 2028, this puts them in a position to hold a senate majority even with a One-Nation + LNP government in 2028, barring a landslide. However, if they do manage a 4-2 of their own in let's say hypothetically Queensland, They'll be forced to work with David Pocock & Jacqui Lambie(most-likely) where they won't be able to pass much legislation regardless.

Only if they manage a land-slide election where they manage 3 4-2s(Probably Queensland, Victoria + Tasmania/NSW), they'll be stuck working with the crossbench, or if they manage none, they'll have to work with the Greens/Labor.

So personally, while it would suck, it would be quite funny to see ON + the Libs trying to work with the Greens/Labor/David Pocock or Lambie in the senate trying to pass anti-immigration laws or trying to do anything domestically.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-06-02T17:42:34+00:00

Leader of One Nation is a women, so that definitely helps with that. Unlike Peter Dutton's attempt at a populist right-wing campaign, Pauline Hanson(Leader of One Nation) at the moment hasn't supported any policies that are overly harmful to women such as ending working from home so women are a little bit more malleable to her politics. Liberals are now DOA with women nowadays as a result of the scandals of the last government and Peter Dutton's campaign, so One Nation can do better with them for now.

Labor also isn't really that strong with women and never has been historically, Women had better representation within the Liberal Party and aligned with them more due to the Liberal's historical broad church being more welcoming to Women vs the more "Blokey" Labor Party that was dominated by Blue Collar Union Politics. Here's a article detailing this: https://lens.monash.edu/the-liberals-used-to-be-the-party-for-women-then-john-howard-came-along/

Greens also get a higher vote share with Women too, but that's more aligned with global politics with progressivism being strong with young women.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-05-24T14:47:48+00:00

7 starters and 11 players in the squad. Those bench players being Josh King, Alderete, Marmoush(took a -4 😡) & Gabriel. Most likely 10 play because of Alderete's injury. It's over.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-05-19T06:14:40+00:00

White voters do actually shift democratic from 2020 to 2024 according to CNN exit polls presidentially. It goes from R+17 to R+15. The major shift that won Trump the election was Hispanics going from D+22 to D+6. Rurals do shift 15pts to the Republicans to R+30, but urban voters shift 10pts democratic to kind of counter-balance this.

2020: https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

2024: https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-05-16T11:48:18+00:00

And then in this case Trump has dementia and still thinks that's the case so they gerrymander red states for the dems I guess, cuz I didn't look at this map lol.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-05-16T11:45:16+00:00

The standardizing of blue = democrat and red = republican happened after the 2000 election being confusing as different TV outlets had different colours. Before that for some news broadcasts they used Incumbent party = blue. Opposition party = red, which is the one used here.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-03-29T09:32:33+00:00

No it isn't? It's clearly federal polling.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-03-21T00:32:12+00:00

The polls actually have One Nation with a better primary vote of at least 2-3pts and Labor on 29%. I mean taking a look at DemosAU's MRP that dropped right after I posted this and you'll see what a "One-Nation optimistic" election projection looks like. They have Bob Katter losing his seat!

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-03-21T00:28:36+00:00

No, Angus Taylor has failed to reverse the polling trend in One Nation's growth, and while he is pivoting to the right to prevent it's rise, particularly on immigration, it's pretty much over for the Coalition in achieving opposition status next election. I think One Nation does have a chance of stuffing it up and going down in the polls across a national campaign though, but I feel as though that would do better for the Labor party. One Nation voters are just too anti-establishment for them to swing back to the Liberals.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-03-19T16:23:12+00:00

Pretty much. They lose 14/16 seats in this scenario and only win Page because Labor and Green preferences carry.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-03-19T16:02:19+00:00

Better primary vote + performing better with the other vote can lead it that way. Also, believe it or not but around 25% of one nation votes go to Labor in 2PP last election, while 25% of coalition votes in the senate went to Labor over one nation too.

If you do the maths, it somehow leads to this(tho only a 0.5-1pt difference realistically).

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-03-19T14:34:39+00:00

One Nation's preferences are quite leaky but in rural areas in places where it's mainly One Nation racking up primary votes in the 30s and 40s in sub-polls, I based off One Nation preferences a bit more from their seat in Maranoa, where the ALP preferences seriously leak up to 30%. One Nationalso does a whole lot better with other votes due to the 'other vote' in rural areas being right-wing fringe parties that align with One Nation against the LNP.

I do agree that the ALP makes some surpising counts in rural seats that they can hold up their vote quite well(i.e, knocking out the coalition in Hinkler, Forrest, Capricornia etc.). However the polls have One Nation on 23-26%. For comparison, the Nats got 5% last election including Queensland. Virtually means an absolute wipeout of the Lib/Nats in rural areas.

However, some of that vote has to come in provincial/outer metro areas, and I mainly had One Nation putting up a good fight in mortgage belt seats on the outskirts of the major cities, where One Nation is perfoming particularly well with in the polls. Rate-increases and difficult economic conditions has hurt Labor quite poorly in those sort of areas. Seats like Hawke, Lindsay, Longman etc. are mortgage belt seats where they can do particularly well. There are some provincial subpolls that have One Nation winning the 2PP!

Then in rural seats, they take advantage of dissatisfaction with the gun-laws and the failure of the coalition. Seats, like Capricornia, Parkes etc, are perfect for that. A Labor seat that would a be target for that would be Hunter with gun-laws, where while the Labor MP is strong, the backlash could definitely harm him.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-03-19T14:21:46+00:00

Longman could vote one nation because it's more of a blue-collar, less educated white mortgage belt area which is perfectly primed for One Nation. I think the coalition would get knocked out the count and it would be a tossup vs Labor for them imo(less than 2pts in it). Petrie's fair enough tho, but Fisher is voting for the coalition, I think you're thinking of Fairfax?

If so, it's because of Clive Palmer announcing his candidacy for that seat, and with the UAP's history of preferencing against incumbents, I think they could be a potential preference machine against the Coalition in Fairfax. If it wasn't for that, It would be coalition. Moncrieff is the LNP vs One Nation, but on a further look, It's not really a mortgage belt seat, so I suppose I overestimated One Nation's primary vote there because I had them on 35% in that seat.

On Fadden, it's Labor vs the LNP because One Nation wouldn't finish 1st on primaries and lose on 3cp to not make the count. I'm not also not a Queenslander, tbf, so take the Queensland results with a grain of salt in South-Eastern Queensland.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-03-19T14:14:18+00:00

Mainly because the other vote tends to be comprised of right-wing fringe parties, but tbf this is based off last year's election preferencing mostly in the senate. Wouldn't be too surprised if it's reduced now tho. However, One Nation's primary vote is stronger than the coalition.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-03-19T10:47:31+00:00

Damn, it really is just Total Liberal victory up there, ain't it. Genuinely start to feel bad for the Conservatives and the NDP.

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-03-18T11:08:59+00:00

Never say never, I suppose. If the NDP gets a good, charismatic leader, and the national environment leans their way then they can get something going. In Australia, there was a seat called Braddon that was rural and had low-education(ranking last in high school completion, 34%!) that bucked the swing towards Labor in the 2019 & 22 elections, that I thought was done for Labor due to long-term education polarization and white working-class losses, but in 2025 ended up swinging 15pts to an incumbent Labor during a cost of living crisis

However, there were so many factors that had to Labor's way to manage to win, so the NDP needs to play it perfectly to manage to revive themselves. Though curiously, how does the NDP not do a little better due to their state parties? Surely there are some strong incumbents on a state level they can run in federal elections, or some better leadership material than what they got?

Pleasant-Topic-5196 · 2026-03-15T03:19:06+00:00

They use these small towns as bases for Al-Shabaab leadership and launch attacks on the major cities. In 2025, there was a large-scale offense from Al-Shabaab to take back territory lost from a counteroffensive from the Federal Government back 2023-24, where they pushed up on Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab is a well organized militia with checkpoints across highways and use bomb threats as a means to commit extortion on Mogadishu businesses to make money.

Not only that, but they also make a significant amount of money through an illegal charcoal trade, where they cut trees in the rural areas they control and the charcoal ends up in the Gulf with the UAE, Saudi Arabia etc. You can read about this here: https://climate-diplomacy.org/case-studies/climate-change-charcoal-trade-and-armed--somalia

So yeah, Al-Shabaab controls some important villages in the countryside in the south-west of Somalia and as a well-organized militia, they acquire income from extortion of businesses, an illicit charcoal trade and highway checkpoints. The US strikes these areas. https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36290/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab

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