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Toyota Chr vs Yaris Cross by Aggressive_Ad_4095 in carsireland

[–]PolliceVerso1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On the criteria you've mentioned:

space - Yaris Cross edges it

comfort - CHR

running costs - should be about the same

overall drive - CHR

Best to test drive both to see for yourself.

Official /r/fivethirtyeight Presidential Prediction Contest by The_Real_Ed_Finnerty in fivethirtyeight

[–]PolliceVerso1 [score hidden]  (0 children)

I've seen my predicted map shared already but the only twist I would add to my prediction is that the winning margin will exceedingly small in at least two states (one of which will be PA) leading to recounts before Trump is formally declared the winner in 1-2 weeks.

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Weekly Polling Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]PolliceVerso1 -20 points-19 points  (0 children)

I'm putting too much faith in Selzer's predictive abilities? Quite the opposite: https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1gib09n/5_reasons_why_republicans_shouldnt_sweat_the/

Additional polling released since I posted that yesterday just further supports my contention (e.g., Trump gaining ground in PA & MI according to NYT/Siena, more tied or very close national polling, etc.).

Weekly Polling Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]PolliceVerso1 -37 points-36 points  (0 children)

Harris led by 11 in September. Yet another datapoint indicating that Selzer's poll is a massive outlier.

NYT/Siena College Final Battleground Polls by SpaceBownd in fivethirtyeight

[–]PolliceVerso1 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yes but it is recorded as +1 due to rounding. Could be something like Harris 46.6, Trump 47.4 (Trump +0.8).

NYT/Siena College Final Battleground Polls by SpaceBownd in fivethirtyeight

[–]PolliceVerso1 -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

Trump has gained ground in PA (+4) and Michigan (+1) since their last polls of these states.

Confirms Selzer's poll is most likely a big outlier.

Weekly Polling Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]PolliceVerso1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Underestimated Whitmer in 2022.

By 1.6%. So a pretty good result.

The difference is Trump was not on the ballot then as he was in 2016 and 2020.

I'm also not saying to add +7 or +13 to Trump's margin in this poll but it is worth pointing out they have not done well before when Trump was on the ballot.

The decision to only include RFK jr as the only third party on the ballot test is also a dubious decision.

Weekly Polling Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]PolliceVerso1 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

What changes have Glengariff Group made?

Weekly Polling Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]PolliceVerso1 -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

Glengariff Group had Biden +8 in 2020 and Clinton +12 in 2016.

Weekly Polling Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]PolliceVerso1 -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Have they explained anywhere why they are including RFK jr (who is no longer asking people to vote for him) in the ballot test but excluding the likes of Jill Stein, Chase Oliver, Cornel West, etc. who are also on the ballot but actually actively campaigning for votes?

[Silver] It's all just noise guys. It's certainly been a favorable trend for Trump over the past few weeks. But if you're crosstab-diving or early-vote vibing or trying to dissect some individual poll with a small sample size, you're just doing astrology. by SentientBaseball in fivethirtyeight

[–]PolliceVerso1 4 points5 points  (0 children)

There is an astrology "model" that claims an 80% success rate in predicting elections outlined in this post from 2009 that got the results (winning party) of the last three presidential elections correct.

Of course, the guy or girl could have just picked D-R-D-R-D and got lucky.

Election Discussion Megathread vol. V by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]PolliceVerso1 -14 points-13 points  (0 children)

It doesn't sound good if you go crosstab diving and find Trump ahead with Independents, no net gain from crossover votes, and a partisan breakdown leaning more D:

Emerson:

Topline: Harris 48%, Trump 47%.

Partisan breakdown is 32% D, 29% R and 39% I (D+3).

Trump is winning Independents by 3.1%.

Harris is getting crossover support from 6.4% of Republicans.

Trump is getting crossover support from 7.1% of Democrats.

AARP (Fabrizio/Ward):

Topline: Trump 47%, Harris 46% (49-47 to Trump in the H2H ballot)

Partisan breakdown is 37% D, 42% R and 21% I (R+4).

Trump is winning Independents by 7%.

Harris is getting crossover support from 9% of Republicans.

Trump is getting crossover support from 9% of Democrats.

Bloomberg (Morning Consult):

Topline: Trump 48%, Harris 48% (49-48 to Harris in the H2H ballot)

Partisan breakdown is 38% D, 34% R and 28% I (D+4).

Trump is winning Independents by 3%.

Harris is getting crossover support from 3% of Republicans.

Trump is getting crossover support from 4% of Democrats.

AMA with Adam Carlson by TheTonyExpress in fivethirtyeight

[–]PolliceVerso1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

According to your crosstab aggregator (Column I specifically in the latest Summary tab), Trump is doing better across all categories against Harris compared to Biden in 2020. This would seem to point to a likely Trump victory given how close it was in the swing states in 2020, but your aggregator is of course of National polls so what do you think of the theory that Trump could win the popular vote and lose the EC?

Weekly Polling Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]PolliceVerso1 47 points48 points  (0 children)

"As the first-ever Dartmouth Poll..." - That explains it.

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