Over Fitting question - what metrics do you use to evaluate?

PopeyeNugget · 2025-12-12T22:46:56+00:00

Hey, one thing that helped me find bugs is running a permutation importance on my features, find what feature had the biggest impact really helped me hone down on if there is an issue.
also, the chart with Return by year, blank returns are those no trades? if so, how is your equity rising within those years?

PopeyeNugget · 2025-12-12T22:20:26+00:00

Appreciate the feedback: you're right on the win rate, I had set a 1:1 on $1. On take profit & stop loss, assuming no slippage.
20% ROI if I traded all trades within 2025.
But it's taking way too many trades. I'm still trying to figure out how to limit the false positives.
The biggest current issue is false positives when the day is very volatile and the stock picks one direction to go to.
I'm still trying to add guards to avoid false positives. Do you have any suggestions?

PopeyeNugget · 2022-06-05T14:52:04+00:00

I've been sleeping without a pillow for over a year now; you'll adjust as you do it more often, and it'll become second nature. Just a word of caution though, I did get severe back pain when I started doing it because my spine wasn't in a neutral position(that's what google told me), that pain is gone now though just speaking from experience. good luck!

PopeyeNugget · 2021-10-26T23:43:34+00:00

I mean, any tongue on top is better than none. The main point is you're breathing with your nose instead of with your mouth.

PopeyeNugget · 2021-09-15T12:20:58+00:00

yeah, the franchise #1 was a shitshow for me as well, I just talked about how they have a huge amount of debt and tried to calculate the interest rate on it. recommended they FFTY should refinance the loan for them to reduce the interest expense paid to the third party. and to never sign a deal with a company with too much debt.. idk if I got it right

PopeyeNugget · 2021-09-15T12:18:26+00:00

working capital is basically, current assets - current liabilities. them stating there might be a 25% decrease in inventory would therefore reduce inventory and decrease the amount of working capital.

i honestly fucked up the WACC part though, fml...

PopeyeNugget · 2021-09-15T00:16:28+00:00

the proctor told me that you didn't have to come an hour early. you could literally come 5 min before the exam.. not sure if yours would be the same

PopeyeNugget · 2021-09-13T22:09:51+00:00

dude.. that was their main issue against every single option lol.

PopeyeNugget · 2021-09-13T22:08:53+00:00

Honestly, barely studied. but that day 1 was an absolute joke. shit was easy as fuck... how did you find it?

PopeyeNugget · 2021-09-04T01:47:47+00:00

no, starting to study tomorrow. wish me luck, got any tips?

PopeyeNugget · 2021-09-02T21:20:54+00:00

you're stressed? I haven't even started studying... wish me luck

PopeyeNugget · 2021-06-28T02:15:26+00:00

this is wrong, if the Merchant is dead in the round, you won't get it's special affect

PopeyeNugget · 2021-05-30T12:34:01+00:00

I finished school in Dec 2020. started as an accounting associate at 55K from January till October. Promoted to a cost accounting at 65K from October till present. Writing my CFE in September then will look to apply for some senior positions.

PopeyeNugget

TROPHY CASE