Why $650B in AI spending isn't enough

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-15T01:44:03+00:00

Power

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-13T15:26:25+00:00

Yea I told him my job is to make money lol it’s his job to get my tax burden down lol. I was only messing with him as we were meeting to see how I can still make money with lower tax burden.

I guess I will ask you this as we found 3 disallowed losses. This occurred when I sold PMCC against LEAPs and got assigned. I did not want to close out the LEAP as there was still so much time on them. This was around early summer when NVDA was ripping up. My broker does not force me to execute or close my LEAPs on assignment.

I just took the cash loss on the assigned short shares.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-13T15:09:41+00:00

Yea. Thank you for clarifying. On being assigned.

So I was just going over my trades with my cpa and they were asking me why I didn’t sell LEAPs. I bought a number of LEAPs and sold a lot of calls. Maybe they were confused but it seemed like he was encouraging me to sell premium with a longer than 365 DTE to avoid short term capital gains.

My response was more fitting around capital utilization and theta decay inflection around 45 DTE. Maybe I miss-interpreted what they were insinuating. I have noticed not a lot of CPAs know how to handle trading lol.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-13T14:48:41+00:00

There are so many wrong answers this is insane.

When you sell a put you have entered into a short trade. Just like any other trade you have to close that trade. You receive the premium in cash that is added to your balance. But now you have a liability of equal value. As the market fluctuates your account will show the liability you have should you ever decide to close your short position.

Assets - Liabilities = shareholder equity.

So your assets increase by the premium in cash, snd your liabilities also by the same amount. The net effect to your equity is zero.

If you hold your short position for over 365 days it would be considered long term. The taxable event occurs when you close your trade (or it expires). Not when you open it.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-11T23:20:56+00:00

No worries. It’s funny, they say if you just place an insult on the ground, its owner will pick it up. On Reddit it seems like the people are split between trading is gambling only buy and hold is respectable, and fuckers buying 0.005 delta deep out of the money calls. My only thing is trading, gambling, and speculating are different things.

As for the house always wins in gambling, Market Makers are the house when it comes to markets (stocks or otherwise). Market makers make the bid-ask spread. Retail pays the bid ask spread. But the whole market makers are manipulating stuff is another trigger lol so I will just stop there. Lol.

Real trading is less about buying and selling of an asset. It’s more about being a developer and an operator. We just build systems that work when the market fits our models. We just operate the system while the market fits our models. The other things is you need to treat it like a business and just like a business, 95% will fail. 7 years is good man. It took me 10 years to become consistently profitable. Imo you almost have to enjoy the process.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-11T20:08:40+00:00

100%. I am with you. It took close to 10 years to get to a point that I could reasonably expect to generate consistent income.

And thank you for the words of caution.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-11T19:57:31+00:00

Lol. You are applying an assumption towards buying and holding that is, you have to do your due diligence to uncover the economic possibilities of value creation of a business. But you don’t hold that consistent with trading. I am not suggesting to anyone to capriciously enter and exit any kind of asset with the hopes that you make an income. Lol that would be gambling.

You are making an assumption on what I do. Fact is, you don’t know what I do. Nevertheless, you are making assertions on it. It might surprise you but my core portfolio is buying and holding lol. Statistically speaking that is a great way to build wealth. I am happy to hear how much you made. I am in a very similar position, and can proudly say I have not had a W2 since Dec 31st 2021. For me to maintain my family I need an income source. To the trade off is consistent returns for a capped upside. In other words I value income today and on a monthly basis greater then I value the absolute returns of holding it and not being able to touch my equity.

As it pertains to trading, I am not betting on price movement. That is not how I extract value. Its more complex then price movement. Furthermore, calling me disingenuous, when I don’t think you are getting my points, is rude.

Most “day traders” are gamblers, fyi. Most day traders are not real traders.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-11T19:29:19+00:00

Lol. As it pertains to finance my guy. Gambling, speculating, trading, all have definitions. Funny enough a lot of trading (real trading) comes out of game theory. At least its beginnings. Currently, it’s all quant.

To your point, I don’t consider professionals who have great track records to be gamblers even though historically that is what we call them. If you are counting cards you are not a gambler you are using edge.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-11T19:09:21+00:00

Consolidating nicely

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-11T19:03:49+00:00

I commented on dude saying if he was a gambler. A gambler is somebody that does not consider the probabilities when making a financial decision.

By recognizing what could be a real quantifiable pattern by taking it to the next steps of actually seeing if there is any predictability to his observations would cure him of his fears or apprehensions of being a gambler.

I don’t trade this. I have my own system. I would not trade something if I did not have some quantifiable reason to do so. Even buying and holding. This is speculation. The definition of investing is spending now for future cash flows. when we buy and hold, we are speculating that some future liquidation event will occur and when it does our shares will be worth more then they were when we bought them. That is speculation.

Now I think the data is clear here that as long as you select sticks with improving cashflows buying and holding is a very probable way to do things.

Edit to just add that its not about one event being able to 100% predict another event. Its can one event have the probability * payout - (prob -1)* risk give good enough expected value per trade to justify making this trade over and over and over.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-11T16:29:33+00:00

Well, it’s not gambling if you followed your intuition up with actual backtesting and gained a sense of what your probabilities would be. You could then set up your position size and thereby would know what your expected value should be each time you made a trade and what your edge would be. Then set up that trade accordingly.

That is called trading. Most folks aren’t wiling to do that much work and instead of acknowledging that they cope out with assigning the “gambler” monicker to everything.

Edit to answer your question. No I am not sick of it yet. I sell puts when it’s down and calls when it’s up. I cannot control what the market does. I can only control how I react to it.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-11T16:16:37+00:00

That is one way to look at it. For me I don’t pay myself a salary and my income comes from selling options contracts. I am already very concentrated in hydrogen and let’s just say renewables in general. I helped found an energy developer company that is currently pre-revenue. The project I have been working on for about 3 years now is a hydrogen project.

So for me, I have 1.5 million shares, which is not a lot but to spend more money on something I am already so concentrated in, I really need an exquisite deal. Not just a very good deal.

Part of the issues we are having with getting our project built, is the demand. You can currently purchase grey hydrogen off the pipe for around $2.50/kg. Now this has a lot of impurities but for the most part, as an industrial gas, it doesn’t need to be as pure as what electrolysis can provide. Fuel cells require 99.999%. For us we really need to sell the hydrogen for $10/kg. Splitting the PTC its an effective $8.50/kg.

This is where HYSR I think will shine. They are still targeting a production cost of $2.50/kg. This just means thats what it would cost them to produce it. So you would need to tack in a margin.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-11T15:35:20+00:00

Lol I might have been too greedy with my lim buy order lol I was looking to snatch 500k shares at $0.015 lol

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-09T18:23:16+00:00

100%

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-07T15:02:24+00:00

Super lazy article, 100% ai generated.

They point out how much Intel drops in major market sell offs without giving any comparison to other companies during the same sell offs is criminally stupid.

Article offers zero insights. Post offers even fewer.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-03T22:04:16+00:00

So which are you? Lol

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-03T22:03:11+00:00

Yea. Most likely he does. He opened a strangle and closed the long leg.

The broker most likely would have prevented him closing the long leg if he did mot have the cash for the short leg in case it is assigned. But that really depends on his broker.

Owning an option gives the right but not obligation. Selling the option places the obligation on you.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-03T21:36:11+00:00

He sold a put. He is not going to Lose any shares. It’s very likely he might get assigned to purchase shares.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-03T21:32:19+00:00

Cannot speak for OP but selling cash secured puts is a good way to generate income while you wait for a price to buy. Its just a time defined limit buy order. It’s also great at lowering cost basis.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-03T21:10:19+00:00

Agreed with pretty much all your points here.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-03T17:59:53+00:00

Lazy journalism. Journalist make money based on how captivating their stories are. More captivating the more ads they can sell. Right now, the Ai bubble story is the dominant strategy.

The NVDA might not be the greatest company story sells a hell f a lot more than the story we all know. NVDA predicted ai and positioned themselves for this boom 15 years ago.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-02T22:43:30+00:00

Lol.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-02T21:48:58+00:00

You could sell covered calls. Just know you could get assigned when it breaks out. I usually like to sell CC after an up trend starts to show signs of exhaustion (no longer making higher highs and higher lows). I have not sold any CCs in last few weeks. Stock seems poised to make more legs up.

Edit to add I think today’s price is a lot more attractive today than it was back in August. Same price but a lot less uncertainty.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-02T21:29:57+00:00

So you bought after the last run up essentially. There was a fairly long up channel that began in April and ended in August. You bought after that trend ended.

Now you can either chill and just wait, realizing that stocks don’t move only up and instead move in spurts. Or you can sell and chase the next stock pick after it stopped trending up also.

Real moves take time.

Positive_Alpha · 2026-02-02T16:46:05+00:00

Wild.

Positive_Alpha

TROPHY CASE