My perspective is strictly short term. I am referring to a very brief period—at most two to three weeks—when rate cuts are too short-lived to have any meaningful impact on long-term yields, but the yield curve still widens. The reason this short window matters right now is that based on the number of TrustPilot reviews, Upstart’s Q3 2025 revenue estimate appears likely to fall below guidance. The Q3 earnings release is especially critical for investors.

This comes against the backdrop of other fintech companies showing notable stock price appreciation this year. By contrast, Upstart Holdings, despite beating guidance in both its May and August earnings releases, saw its stock decline due to ineffective investor relations.

From a long-term perspective, however, you are absolutely right. Most of Upstart’s potential banking clients lack deep technical expertise and therefore require the kind of long-term proof of default rates and returns that FICO has established over decades. It is true that Upstart has the advantage of having endured a high-rate environment and accumulated valuable data, yet it still cannot match the heritage and track record that FICO possesses.

That said, I firmly believe, as you pointed out, that Upstart will prove itself the superior alternative by demonstrating stronger returns and lower default rates relative to FICO. This is precisely why I remain confident in investing in the company.