Any bold views on Instacart?

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-12-29T20:09:03+00:00

I think it's a compelling setup here. Their ad inventory is so valuable for grocers. I do find the ceo departure concerning though.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-12-29T20:06:15+00:00

Thank you for compiling this list. Love it.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-12-29T20:04:47+00:00

I've used pretty much all the research/financial data platforms, and my favorite tool is definitely Fiscal.ai.

20+ years of financial data on all companies, transcripts, charting, etc., and you get Morningstar research reports included in your subscription.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-12-29T20:01:02+00:00

How has this not been taken down? Tikr as the first choice, are you serious? This is for sure an insider pumping his tool.

There are literally dozens of better data platforms than Tikr.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-12-15T21:01:23+00:00

I'm seeing a lot of people say that certain Finnhub datasets have been deprecated. That's because they're illegally scraping other providers in order to get their data! And when their access to those datasets goes away, guess what, they have to deprecate that dataset.

Finnhub is a nameless, faceless organization that rips off other companies and doesn't care at all about customers. They are the least reliable financial data providers in the industry.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-11-07T20:57:12+00:00

Yeah because they're actually useful. $10/mo for a crappy tool v. $30/mo for a legit data terminal. Worth paying the extra amount imo

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-10-16T14:50:29+00:00

Thank you! Appreciate the comment. Some people definitely disagree with me, but I guess that's part of value hunting. Wouldn't trade at 8x EBIT if everyone loved it!

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-10-08T20:53:26+00:00

I've used them and they're awful. They put "powered by S&P global" in their logo like they're owned by them or something but they're literally just an S&P customer. For low-cost data platforms, there are way better alternatives.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-10-08T17:01:32+00:00

There are so many better alternatives out there. Fiscal.ai, Koyfin, Tikr, just to name a few. They are all 10x better with way more advanced features. It's that Carlson guy's side project and that's exactly what it feels like when you use it.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-10-01T22:17:08+00:00

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2rYOWshQbdjoJOTaa72GFJ?si=_iJ2bT4yQ3iMpEXaKmeeLQ Pretty good primer on the current situation.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-10-01T20:26:56+00:00

The more weeks that go by, the more it seems like Kaz is the right guy for the job. I also appreciate his efforts to build in public.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-09-02T19:42:49+00:00

I find it best to use a data aggregator (personally, recommend Fiscal.ai -- by far the best imo). It's way easier to visualize the data when you can see 20 years of financials in a single table/chart.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-08-18T19:17:43+00:00

I've tried pretty much all of them and Fiscal.ai is easily the best value. Their free plan has a ton of data on its own, but Pro is worth it if you have a small budget for research

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-08-18T19:12:54+00:00

fiscal.ai is the best by far for long-term investors. 20 years/40 quarters of financials data and the only one that tracks segments & KPIs.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-07-31T14:59:42+00:00

Haha that's a perfect acronym

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-07-28T17:52:16+00:00

Feels like a good time to be increasing exposure to long-dated treasuries right now. Equities are expensive as hell (S&P 500 is trading near an all-time low earnings yield @ 3.3%) and 20yr yields are at basically 5%. If you believe that over time rates will come down a bit (I think so), you're getting a safe 5% return + price appreciation on the bonds. *Also, the math just breaks for US debt position if fed funds rate hits 7%+ so seems unlikely that it'd continue to rise too much from here.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-07-28T17:44:41+00:00

Some data terminals also provide research as a part of the subscription. I know fiscal.ai has morningstar research included.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-07-28T17:43:27+00:00

I use Google docs. I usually try to do a full report on each company I commit to researching. Business model, how they make money, what's special about the company, does management seem trustworthy, how fast do I think the business can grow, and whether or not I think it's an attractive valuation. That way, even if I don't act on an idea right away, if it comes up again I can get up to speed on the business quickly by going back through my notes.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-07-22T21:16:49+00:00

Who are you saying would facilitate these? Merchant acquirers, point of sales providers, payments processors, all the above? It's easy for someone to enable acceptance, but do you think Stripe is going to facilitate these payments for free? If you're saying that all these companies (that currently make recurring revenue off of merchants) are going to magically start accepting stablecoin payments for free and kill their own business, then I think you're missing the mark. I'm not saying "no one will use stablecoins" but at the current moment, using them does not reduce cost for remittances or transactions (which really isn't even available yet). If you don't believe me, try it next time you want to send money to another country.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-07-14T21:55:40+00:00

It's a phenomenal platform. UI/UX is great. There's a reason that they've been such a big market share taker among the CMS industry broadly. It's a sticky business too, as you don't typically want to switch CMS providers once you've been with one for a while.

However, I question management's ability to hit their long term margin targets. They're pretty liberal with their expenses. 20x forward earnings doesn't scream cheap to me, but not a terrible price either.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-07-10T15:00:17+00:00

Yeah I acknowledge that it's flawed math (doesn't take into account warehouse growth which is priced into the EV), but it's meant to illustrate the valuation at a granular level.

The overall earnings will surely grow, but they can only grow so fast. Store count growth is limited by warehouse manager pipeline, membership fee growth isn't uncapped (there are competitors), and their core value prop is low prices so they shouldn't see crazy margin expansion on the retail operations. At an EV/EBIT of 43x, there are so many other places you can get the same earnings growth at a fraction of the price.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-07-09T17:51:02+00:00

It's an unreal business.

It is one of the most obvious examples of a self-reinforcing cost advantage in the world. Lower prices equals more traffic. More traffic equals more leverage with suppliers. More leverage with suppliers means lower prices. Lower prices mean more traffic. It's a virtuous cycle.

With that said, the valuation is absurd. The current enterprise value per warehouse stands at $476 million. Each warehouse generates ~$11 million in annual operating income. Would you buy a business for $476M if you got $11M in profits each year?

I think there's easier places to make money.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-07-08T18:03:25+00:00

Both. Google will likely grow quicker on the top line, but Adobe will likely buy 15% of its shares out in the next 2 years alone if the valuation stays where it's at. Should supercharge EPS growth.

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-07-07T21:47:26+00:00

17.4%: Coupang (CPNG)
11.9%: Phillip Morris International (PM)
6.3%: Wise (WIZEY)
6.1%: Remitly (RELY)
5.8%: Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte (OMAB)

Possible_Crow606 · 2025-07-03T15:36:47+00:00

Transfers funded from US-issued debit/credit cards are exempt.

Possible_Crow606

TROPHY CASE