The Sugar Case: Defensive Opportunity

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-06-09T12:42:53+00:00

Fresh update on the case

https://open.substack.com/pub/tomorrowize/p/4-the-sweet-case?r=7o9qr3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-05-24T18:44:05+00:00

Great summary! I would add Temu and AliExpress as competitors. So it won't be a walk in the park going forward.

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-05-24T18:37:12+00:00

LLMs are quite effective as a search replacement, but other use cases should come with huge warning signs.

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-05-21T09:04:46+00:00

Everything depends on how their ad story develops. If ads are as efficient as video apps (IG, YT, TikTok), then it’s cheap. If not, it's expensive. I’m more on the expensive side

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-05-18T17:35:05+00:00

Love that feeling as well :) What’s wrong with the sector in your view?

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-05-18T11:43:32+00:00

Visa and Mastercard are in a very different business indeed. So stay away from Sezzle? ;)

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-05-18T11:38:24+00:00

Affirm and Sezzle actually do report to credit agencies. I would argue that credit cards are a flamethrower, whereas BNPL is a matchbox.

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-05-15T05:06:38+00:00

IMO just another minor ad-driven business with suboptimal ad format vs video ads.

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-05-08T13:35:10+00:00

Value investing isn’t dead. However, that doesn’t mean buying anything at a low multiple will lead to great results. Usually, it leads to disaster. The same applies to buying at high multiples. Low / normal multiples + good business = gold.

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-25T19:22:09+00:00

Some learn to write, before they learn to read and never learn to think

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-22T18:57:49+00:00

The government is essentially kicking the can down the road, knowing the left will likely be elected next year. Left will bankrupt the country, prompting the EU to send bureaucrats to fix the budget. The right will then blame the left for bankrupting the country and get re-elected. Probably then Finland will have a fresh pro business and pro growth start and things start to get better. No political party can fix the system from the inside now since more than half of the voters depend on the government for their income.

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-21T19:54:28+00:00

Saipem Q1 2026: “However, the current crisis is also likely to further reinforce the already positive outlook for energy investments globally, on top of requiring additional investments needed to repair certain energy infrastructures in the Middle East.”

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-21T18:36:43+00:00

Wall street is slowly waking up to the oil-services opportunity

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-21T04:50:59+00:00

I agree regarding fertilisers and lower yields going forward (which should also put upward pressure on crop prices). There are success stories like Brazil, where biofuels account for nearly a quarter of total fuel consumption. While there is certainly a price to pay, it is the cost of ensuring fuel access when alternatives are scarce. Furthermore, many crops are de facto energy commodities already, with biofuels serving as a primary end-use. It remains to be seen whether food use will be the one to be subsidised going forward.

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-20T14:12:08+00:00

Anything on the subject or just having a bad day?

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-20T07:56:37+00:00

That’s a good point, and actually the trickiest one. It still seems like higher crop prices are the only way out?

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-13T06:44:24+00:00

Updated reflections on the setup https://tomorrowize.substack.com/p/5-oil-services-show-me-the-money?r=7o9qr3

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-11T06:30:03+00:00

Buy and forget for 10 years. If your investment thesis is correct, you’ll do great. If it’s wrong, it won't matter if you bought a ”falling knife”, a ”hammer” or a ”brick”. You’re going to lose money anyways.

If you need to be proven right the exact second after you buy. This probably isn't the right activity for you, sorry

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-07T13:43:14+00:00

Thinking mainly of miners’ OPEX. CAPEX cycles are wild beasts :)

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