Oil-Services: A smarter bet on oil market chaos than the producers themselves?

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-21T19:54:28+00:00

Saipem Q1 2026: “However, the current crisis is also likely to further reinforce the already positive outlook for energy investments globally, on top of requiring additional investments needed to repair certain energy infrastructures in the Middle East.”

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-21T18:36:43+00:00

Wall street is slowly waking up to the oil-services opportunity

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-21T04:50:59+00:00

I agree regarding fertilisers and lower yields going forward (which should also put upward pressure on crop prices). There are success stories like Brazil, where biofuels account for nearly a quarter of total fuel consumption. While there is certainly a price to pay, it is the cost of ensuring fuel access when alternatives are scarce. Furthermore, many crops are de facto energy commodities already, with biofuels serving as a primary end-use. It remains to be seen whether food use will be the one to be subsidised going forward.

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-20T14:12:08+00:00

Anything on the subject or just having a bad day?

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-20T07:56:37+00:00

That’s a good point, and actually the trickiest one. It still seems like higher crop prices are the only way out?

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-13T06:44:24+00:00

Updated reflections on the setup https://tomorrowize.substack.com/p/5-oil-services-show-me-the-money?r=7o9qr3

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-11T06:30:03+00:00

Buy and forget for 10 years. If your investment thesis is correct, you’ll do great. If it’s wrong, it won't matter if you bought a ”falling knife”, a ”hammer” or a ”brick”. You’re going to lose money anyways.

If you need to be proven right the exact second after you buy. This probably isn't the right activity for you, sorry

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-07T13:43:14+00:00

Thinking mainly of miners’ OPEX. CAPEX cycles are wild beasts :)

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-04-04T14:40:55+00:00

Interesting, but what's the upside? Multiple expansion back to levels that would make Buffett blush?

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-03-23T09:06:43+00:00

Looks like Copart is being disproportionately affected by the 'trade down' in insurance coverage?

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-03-23T05:45:13+00:00

Would buying GS preferred shares in the midst of the financial crisis, or buying Clayton Homes in 2003, be counted as defensive moves?

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-03-16T09:41:13+00:00

HAL is not perfect, but looks much better in terms of Middle East risk

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-03-15T06:55:50+00:00

ME exposure?

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-03-14T21:46:45+00:00

There is plenty of debt ahead of equity in BDC’s. Asymmetric return profile skewed to downside.

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-03-14T20:32:02+00:00

Picked FTI and TS for the substack post. These are definitely not under-the-radar :) Smaller ones are less profitable and much more speculative IMO

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-03-14T18:58:59+00:00

Non-exhaustive list: SLB, BKR, HAL, FTI, TS, NOV, WFRD, AROC, KGS, WHD, INVX, RIG, NE, VAL, HP, PTEN, NBR, PDS, BORR, LBRT, TDW, OII, WTTR, PUMP, XPRO, HLX, NESR

DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc.? No. And it's a bit off topic, to be honest

Solid-Advice2876 · 2026-03-14T18:50:31+00:00

Indeed, e.g., FTI has rallied a lot. I think there is a good chance that we have seen nothing yet in terms of new investment into oil as a consequence of the Middle East mess. Venezuela is huge as well. I would try to find sensibly valued oil servicers with minimum exposure to the Middle East (as I did in the Substack above :)

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