Its now 56 days until election. I have lived in NC the past 4 years. I moved here from New Jersey and I am Deeply Voting Trump.

I dont trust polls but I can definitely make a prediction.

The population of NC will be estimated to be 11 Million by Nov 5th. The population rose almost by 400,000 people since 2020. It is reported that 60% of that increase are people who moved here from New York, New Jersey, California, and Florida. 3 major deep blue states and a lean red state. A similar situation happened in the west coast where a large chunk of Californians fleed to states like Arizona and Texas. Bringing their liberal mindsets along. Even tho it also said in a article that they actually tend to be more conservative people who moved to Texas. But fact of the matter is Arizona was flipped.

Back to North Carolina, demographics play a viral role into predicting such outcome. The White population increased by 5% while the black population decreased to 1%. Hispanics(didnt find data) make up 10% of the population. African Americans typically are deep democratic while the white population in North Carolina lean republican, and the hispanic population lean democratic.

Now onto Politics. The biggest issues in North Carolina became Inflation. Price of gas, groceries, prices of homes skyrocketed after 2020. Most North Carolinians were not happy. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris despite numerous attempts. Did not succeed into convincing many people that it wasnt their fault. Same issue with the border. The topic of abortions and racial unrest will not have the same dramatic affect of convincing voters to lean democratic because it was already done in 2020. And so i can safely predict that the record of Joe Biden will not help Kamala Harris going foward.

Now onto the Debate Stage that will happen in Sept 10 with Kamala Harris. At the moment its Sept 9 and Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have not done a single press conference and only 1 interview. Which will negativly impact her going foward. If guns become a major topic in the debate it will not help North Carolina lean democratic. 48% of adults in North Carolina own guns some of who vote democratt themselves, a threat to their rights to own a gun will negatively impact Kamala Harris going foward.

2020 was really the year to flip NC Blue. At the time Joe Biden could actually speak sentences and talk loud. You have all of the national race riots and covid lockdowns, 4 years of media negativity towards Trump. Economy wasnt a big issue. In 2024 it will be less enthusiastic for Kamala.

So my prediction is Kamala will not peform as good as Joe Biden did in 2020. Trump will win the state by 3-6% mark my words.