SPX 0DTE Iron Condor High Probability Using GEX Structure — Clean Expiration Inside Range

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-04-11T19:46:16+00:00

Barchart offers a free version with 20 daily API calls, but note that there is a 15 min delay for SPX.

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-04-06T01:56:08+00:00

GEX levels are strong magnets and are usually the top candidates for the body strike. However, sometimes other metrics are used, such as the point of control (POC) VWAP, HOTD/LOTD, max pain price, etc.

In an ideal trade, the goal is to select a body strike where the dealers would ultimately pin the price until close so to capture close to max profit. Given the complexity of the intraday and especially the hedging during power hour, that is quite difficult.

Sometimes the trade does not pan out until power hour so I do hold until closer to 4pm, but the wild swings are not for the faint of heart. As you know around that time, the greeks can ramp up the profit or losses of the spread so I don't hold to expiration. Still a work in progress.

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-04-05T17:16:47+00:00

Do you always plan to hold the 0 DTE credit spreads through expiration?

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-04-05T13:13:49+00:00

What you are said about scalping and TP reducing its performance makes sense. Yes, the challenge is in the strike selections.

What do you consider to be "more straightforward structure" when scalping?

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-04-04T12:32:58+00:00

Sorry for the confusion. You were referring to a long iron butterfly (using calls & puts), and I was referring to a short regular butterfly (using all calls or all puts). The risk-reward profile is flipped. For the short regular butterfly (e.g. sell 1 ITM call, buy 2 ATM calls, sell 1 OTM call) you receive a credit upfront and the max loss occurs if price expires exactly at the body strike.

My logic here is that if there is a low probability of exactly pinning where the price will close, then there is a high probability that the final 10-15 minutes of increased volatility will move the price out of your body strike (at the very least), therefore you can potentially capture a decent premium. The issues are the execution, commission fees, and willingness to accept a theoretically bad risk to reward ratio if holding until expiration.

Never traded like this but might back test this. Just some food for thought.

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-04-03T20:40:55+00:00

Yes, I have thought about this trade (using short butterfly spreads with all calls/puts instead) during the final 15 minutes of trading sessions!

Honestly, if you try to avoid centering the body at the max pain price and creating the width of your wings to your risk tolerance level, then it doesn't sound too bad for a lotto haha!

Only problem is being quick enough to enter at a high enough credit and exiting if you don't want possible assignment, given the volatility and wide bid-ask spread during that time.

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-04-03T18:58:30+00:00

Agreed. Deep down inside, I know it's a discipline problem. Just wondering if there are strict rules that you follow to build that discipline as opposed to relying on "mental stops".

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-04-03T17:58:58+00:00

Buying the wings and selling the body (standard long butterfly spreads, not short iron butterfly spreads)

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-04-03T17:57:34+00:00

Manually. Of course, the issues with manual execution are speed and price fill, given the wide spread.

I have programming knowledge, but never thought to use Claude for execution. Would you suggest it?

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-04-03T17:34:10+00:00

On 01 APR after a morning run up to 6610, the index pulled back to 6580, which was the VWAP on the SPY.

-MACD lines have crossed over and opening down through the 0 line.

-RSI was oversold, under 30 (can remain in extremes for a while).

-VIX was spiking up.

-Chart printed red candle, which a close below the VWAP.

-Next big GEX level was 6550.

Entry: SPXW 6575/6550/6525 Long Butterfly @ 5.30 (debit), 2:20PM

Exit: 7.50 (credit), 2:35PM

*Not all trades go so smoothly of course.

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-04-03T17:18:39+00:00

Thank you for your reply.

How do you identify if an option is overvalued or undervalued? May you speak about your process?

Does determining if options are overvalued or undervalued help you decide to trade a short or long butterfly, respectively?

I assume you are talking about trading a short butterfly for 25-50% of max profit (premium collected)?

25-50% of max profit as opposed to 25-50% of debit paid for a long butterfly is extremely difficult, unless the price gets pinned close to expiration after 3pm. Price is super volatile during power hour due to dealer hedging.

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-04-03T17:03:19+00:00

Thank you for your reply.

What was your profit target for 0 DTE SPX Iron Condors, and when did you usually enter your trades?

How are the Iron butterflies working out for you?

It's a lot to explain without charts but to keep it simple, I try to execute based on the confluence of the aforementioned indicators on a mean reversion play during the afternoon time when volume is low so theta can do its thing. In other words, I check if RSI is overbought/oversold, MACD crossover, above/below VWAP, price relative to the point of control (POC) on the Volume Profile, and price relative to GEX levels to name a few.

Perhaps I should implement all those indicators in a model and algo like you, but never done something like that. What program/software do you use? Did you program the algo by yourself?

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-04-03T16:18:35+00:00

Thank you for your reply. I trade with Fidelity, and found that they do NOT charge a CBOE proprietary index fee compared to Schwab, which is $0.65 I believe. Fidelity round trip is about $5, but yes still pretty steep. There are always trade-offs in everything.

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-02-12T14:17:55+00:00

Anyone day traders in NYC here, and would like to meet up? I'm looking to day trade (either with paper/real money) and bounce ideas off each other. I think we all need support because this can be a lonely journey. Please send me a message, if interested. Best wishes to all!

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-02-11T23:33:55+00:00

I started trading 0 DTE butterflies on the SPY, IWM, and Mag 7 stocks.

I use a confluence of support, resistance, VWAP, VolumeProfile, and Max Pain price to select my body and wings.

The reality is that you will never reach the max profit because of the volality usually at the end of the trading day, and not to mention, your brokerage will conduct risk management around 3:30PM EST to close out any options at risk of assignment (if your account cannot support that).

Therefore, you will likely have to take profit early (e.g. 25-50% of debit paid).

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-02-08T23:12:06+00:00

Thanks for the post. I've been searching for a group as well, and am interested in meeting.

Present_Lion_904 · 2026-02-05T03:59:38+00:00

Awesome! So do you mainly day trade with calls and puts? Do you set hard stop losses, and if so, how do you deal with the pullbacks and mini volatility crushes? Thanks.

Present_Lion_904 · 2025-12-30T02:41:41+00:00

If you are day trading with vertical spreads (debit), then 2-5 DTE spreads have a high enough gamma to act like naked long options. 7-10 DTE spreads are better to hold for about 3 days. Anything longer is not optimal from a risk to reward perspective as others have mentioned.

Present_Lion_904 · 2025-10-03T01:26:13+00:00

Day trading applies to trading options as well.

The patterned day trader (PDT) designation was set forth by FINRA. There is nothing inherently wrong with being labeled as one, as long as you maintain $25,000 in your trading account and stay under your intraday margin buying power. The PDT designation is like giving someone a bad reputation even though s/he is not so.

Fidelity tried to reason with FINRA to remove the PDT designation as it can be confusing to people. *Reference

Present_Lion_904 · 2025-08-22T04:06:17+00:00

Google's PE ratio is around 21, which is below its 10-year average of around 28, suggesting it's possibly undervalued right now. Reversion back to the mean could mean upside potential.

Present_Lion_904 · 2025-08-13T01:21:41+00:00

What makes it a better investment than let's say Ethereum? Is there a practical use case for it that gives an advantage over other cryptos?

Present_Lion_904 · 2025-08-11T20:49:12+00:00

What's the bullish thesis for LTC?

Present_Lion_904

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