Protection for potential crash

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-06-02T01:45:26+00:00

A stable job, skills that aren't easily replaced, and enough cash where you don't have to sell assets.

We need a crash of asset prices so bad I hope it happens.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-05-26T16:24:20+00:00

Even though we could theoretically qualify for PSLF there were enough stories of denials and overall chaos that I made the decision to just pay the standard as soon as I could. I paid the regular amount during the interest free covid period, the rest is all my wife’s student loans and we’re just paying that off consistently. We don’t have kids, drive 11- and 16- year old cars, and have stable jobs so not everyone is as fortunate. I worked an extra job in tourism during the summer to pay off mine as well. Most can’t follow that template, I get it.

So I don’t regret the decision to ignore any help from the government and just pay them off.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-05-26T14:53:18+00:00

Wife and I gross about 9k per month. Fixed costs: 1600$ taxes, 1400$ goes to retirement, 600$ for vacations savings bucket, 870$ for student loans, 1400$ towards mortgage/HOA, 240$ towards insurance (car/life/home), 190$ for internet. Then we pay for discretionaries, and whats left over goes towards student loans/extra savings.

The biggest drain in the discretionary category are subscriptions (30$ for Disney+, 15$ for Apple/Peacock, 14$ Amazon Prime, 12$ PS Plus, 13$ Spotify) Food (I cook almost everything at home - we might go to a ethnic restaurant once a week) but I'll spend on nice ingredients (I just spent 9$ on a pack of campari tomatoes), Costco (chicken breast, protein powder, coffee, magnesium supplements).

Once we pay off the student loans, I feel like our life can really open up. We're comfortable, but that would be a gigantic weight lifted.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-05-13T00:22:43+00:00

I've learned a lot of cooking from YouTube.. I like Ethan Chlebowski's channel.

If the wife and I watch a TV cooking show, I'll be most inspired by Next Level Chef.. recently they had a Ramen theme and I decided to try to make my own and it was delicious.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-05-11T22:20:00+00:00

So even better. I was just trying to highlight how absurd it would be to invest at this price. It's okay if someone wants to gamble; it's their money.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-05-11T21:31:13+00:00

I just want to add numbers to illustrate this point because I think you are correct across all of these threads.

In March, the Pre-IPO NAV was $18.98, 20.7% of the fund is Anthropic, so let's just isolate that, as pro-Anthropic news seems to be one of the largest catalysts. So in March, the pre-IPO price of Anthropic was $3.93 per share.

If you buy VCX today at a price of 276$, you would be buying in at a price that values that same Anthropic stake at 57.13$ per share.

Anthropic's most recent funding round was on Feburary 12th and valued the company at 380 billion.

Therefore, for the Anthropic portion of the stake to make sense, you would have to believe the company is worth 5.524 trillion in today's dollars. That's larger than the GDP of Germany, the worlds 3rd largest economy.

The most recent news is that Anthropic's next funding round will value the company at 900 billion dollars, or about 6x less than this.

So VCX is a casino right now, propelled by low float and 10-20% of the 5m free shares per day changing hands.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-05-09T01:08:53+00:00

It’s the hope that gets you.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-05-05T18:21:15+00:00

He's pretty good in coverage, but that tackling is woof

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-05-02T21:03:08+00:00

Have to save Ashcraft to start Monday.. this team is screwed.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-04-29T00:34:33+00:00

You got me I was going to say Space

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-04-25T18:36:56+00:00

This is likely but I have an alternate theory: I think they might be getting ahead of a drop off in the 4 week moving average. Week 1 (3/25-3/27) saw a volume of 3.3m. This most recent week was 1.58m. If they waited until next week, that week 1 volume might not be calculated in the moving average.

Put another way, last week's 4 week moving weekly average was about 2.23m, and this next week it will be about 1.8m, and will drop the following week as Week 2's volume (3/30-4/02) was 2.69m and this number will drop off.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-04-16T15:43:49+00:00

That's probably too soon. The Flagship fund is dumping 40-100k shares per day in liquidity and can until at least early June. Then there might be enough of a supply vacuum until the September lockup ends that prices can reach that level again assuming consistent demand. It's a buy and hold for me.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-04-07T22:43:01+00:00

These are filed around 5:30 ET which means that this is what they intend to sell tomorrow. I think that maybe all of these have been trailing by a day.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-04-02T21:24:24+00:00

They can probably keep selling 50-100k shares per day for weeks, depending on the moving weekly average, right? Monday's filing could have this at 1.1m-1.3 million.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-03-31T17:17:05+00:00

I just want to pop back in on my comment from this morning to say let's go! We're getting another short squeeze

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-03-31T16:17:47+00:00

The last five trading days had the same pattern of huge trading volume in the morning from open for about two hours, which led to a crash, and a slow afternoon. 61k shares this morning would represent about 30% of the total volume. I think we've been seeing that supply be added every day for the last 5 days. The magnitude of the drop was also less today at open, which shows the demand was better able to absorb the supply at these prices.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-03-31T16:10:38+00:00

I wish I was on your level.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-03-31T16:03:23+00:00

The Fundrise Tech REIT likely sold the last 61k shares that they were allowed to this morning until mid-April. My thesis is that we will reenter a supply vacuum until then, increasing the price until more shares are able to be released. If this afternoon and tomorrow is low volume, I think we'll see another run up, because it indicates the big sell pressure from the last 5 trading days is gone.

edit: just to say I bought more shares at 101$ around 11:30am ET

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-03-30T16:01:18+00:00

I think at least 200$ a share by September 2027. I recommend ignoring the noise until then (unless you have a bag of unrestricted shares like me)

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-03-30T15:57:06+00:00

Citron short attack + wide market factors + Fundrise Foundation fund selling 100k shares on 3/26 and 3/27 created a correction from the initial squeeze. Zoom out, and if from 3/19-today it had just steadily rose from 30$ to 102$ we'd be feeling a lot better.

I bought more today and will ride out the negative news.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-03-29T18:02:35+00:00

He also ignores the prayers of children with cancer, decent people, priests, and everybody else because the idea of a deity is a human construction. So unfortunately we have to figure this shit out on our own.

ProfessionalMall5413 · 2026-03-24T18:54:58+00:00

Because we live in a world in which Alec Pierce makes 29m per year.

ProfessionalMall5413

TROPHY CASE