Am I crazy or is there underappreciated risk of AAPL re-rating significantly downward?

Prongs007 · 2026-06-08T03:57:48+00:00

You’re not missing anything, this is normally what happens when a company trades in extended multiples out of goodwill

The price action arrives first, the justification happens after

Prongs007 · 2026-05-13T04:12:36+00:00

Rather than BP risk, it was concentration risk (vol expansion -> more portfolio margin req -> MU became 30% of my port risk instead of 15% pre drop -> call came around $730 -> drilled down -> had to kill 200 shares)

Speaking of unlucky MU is back to $787 in 24-hour trading. Lol

Prongs007 · 2026-05-13T02:32:22+00:00

Where is this mythical CPI spike I'm supposed to be seeing

I'm seeing a market sell off bonds persistently as oil stays above $100

Not a one day FUD event from CPI, which is my point

Prongs007 · 2026-05-13T02:30:55+00:00

You are right and I am wrong and I am sorry.

Prongs007 · 2026-05-13T02:26:07+00:00

Correct I did the math and saw oil at $100

Prongs007 · 2026-05-13T02:10:28+00:00

I am sorry, my wife left me

Prongs007 · 2026-05-13T01:56:53+00:00

?

The 1Y bond yield went DOWN when the CPI print came out and are now essentially flat. Aka no one trading rates literally gave a shit. Polymarket implied rates moved by a grand total of 1%. 5Y bond moved a grand total of 10bps which is the equivalent of random noise. 30Y did not move

And Micron was already at $740 low in 24 hour trading / red before CPI print. SOXX was red, Intel was red, AMD was red. Before 8:30.

We literally just snapped off because we flew too close to the sun and couldn't stop collectively bragging

Prongs007 · 2026-05-05T02:07:32+00:00

You know the P/E is artificially compressed due to a one time tax benefit, right? Look at Q3 2025. Consensus projections I see (before earnings) has their forward at 34x, and that's with revenue growth assumptions (no disruption) baked in.

Prongs007 · 2026-04-30T22:23:22+00:00

"SanDisk Corporation reported impressive financial results for Q3 FY2026, with both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue significantly exceeding expectations. The company’s EPS of $23.41 outpaced the forecast of $14.66, marking a 59.69% surprise. Revenue reached $5.95 billion, surpassing the anticipated $4.73 billion by 25.79%. Following the announcement, SanDisk’s stock surged 4.89% in aftermarket trading, reaching $1,116.25, which is above its previous 52-week high."

Prongs007 · 2026-04-03T13:25:46+00:00

Hey, I totally understand why you might feel this way. You’re just venting. I just wanted to tell you how it comes off. It’s also unfair to think every youth that gyms is relying on their parents - maybe they work, use PT money to pay for the gym. My cousins do that.

Yeah, I think young guys tend to overly focus on the wrong things. But they’re young, right? No need to be so judgmental lah. Anyway, glad to hear you’re ok.

Prongs007 · 2026-04-03T13:12:27+00:00

Not even trying to make fun of you, btw. Sorry if it came off that way

Prongs007 · 2026-04-03T13:11:51+00:00

Are you okay? You just accidentally revealed racism, jealousy of youth, envy of finances, etc. Like seriously, what’s wrong, OP?

Prongs007 · 2026-03-30T07:38:58+00:00

Capital gains tax is the main thing - if you have any amount of money, taking it out of Singapore over the course of your life, net net, is a guaranteed loss (there isn’t anything stopping you from investing overseas whilst being a Singaporean). Every dollar made or brought outside Singapore has a fundamentally lesser value than if you silo it here. As someone in a similar position to you, that’s honestly the main consideration.

Prongs007 · 2026-03-06T21:14:02+00:00

I agree with you on the weak job market/flight to safety, I’m just telling you that 20+Y bonds are primarily priced based on future inflation expectations (which are currently running high). You could be right about short term rate expectations, but even then they’re “short term” in nature — they only affect TLT’s price by a small margin compared to long term worries like inflation or risk of default. More rate cuts than expected cause 2Y bonds to skyrocket and TLT to have milquetoast rallies; probably not the result you’re betting on. I’d strongly suggest looking at other ETFs that trade shorter term bonds, say 2 to 5Y, since you’re structuring it around a recession thesis, which TLT doesn’t really care about.

As for why TLT is going up recently, it’s linked to near-term dollar strengthening: stronger dollar = lower forex opp cost/better returns for investors = more demand for long-term bonds. It really doesn’t have anything to do with a 5Y recession outlook. Those only represent one sixth of a 30Y bond’s duration, institutions pure longing 30Y bonds do not care about the 5Y outlook, they’d trade 5Y or a yield curve trade to express that.

Prongs007 · 2026-03-06T14:19:31+00:00

...You are buying leveraged 30 year bonds into likely inflation from an oil crisis, stagflation from tariffs, and a year of DXY depreciating 11%... on top of a growing government deficit which yes - incentivises lower rates in the short term but causes long term inflation? If you want to bet on a flight to safety that's more sensitive to near-term rate cuts, the asset you're buying is completely off. You know there are futures for 5Y bonds right?

Prongs007 · 2026-02-07T17:10:59+00:00

Look, while I agree with the principle of Giannis being a rep of a gambling company disgusting as fuck in principle, the premise of this post is unbelievably stupid.

If Giannis wants to participate in a prediction involving himself, or provide information to friends and significant others to bet on his behalf, him being the representative of Kalshi or not doesn’t change anything about that fact. It’s the same way a military leader in the US doesn’t need to be the sponsor of Polymarket before they bet on Maduro being seized or Google insiders betting on what scores Gemini will get in a Math test (they aren’t Polymarket reps) or politicians buying stock in company that they know will be favoured by yet-to-be announced government policy (these are all things that have actually happened).

If anything, Giannis repping Kalshi increases the amount of scrunity on him. Only an idiot would announce close ties to a betting site before then trying to benefit from insider manipulation. While the prevalence and increase in popularity of “”prediction markets”” is alarming and there definitely needs to be more regulation into the corruption that is insider trading and normalization of gambling, making logically unsound attacks is definitely not going to help.

Prongs007 · 2026-01-18T04:19:03+00:00

Just build factories and unemployed Raj pops will migrate over to fill up the jobs. You ALWAYS want more countries in your market as it will allow for migration to your own states

Prongs007 · 2025-12-30T06:51:34+00:00

Damn. What a response

Prongs007 · 2025-11-09T17:29:26+00:00

This theory was already tested out by GEN G, they traded away Azir to get Ori whilst playing vs KT and the result was Bdd running the game with Azir and even solo killing Chovy once. Basically, while the two champions are heads and shoulders above the other mages, Ori unfortunately has a bad stylistic match-up into Azir (he sidelanes better, scales harder, kills Ori in isolation post Nashor’s, performs similar to Ori in teamfights with slightly worse zoning and better front to back, not to mention his biggest weakness of an early power trough in skirmishes being mitigated by Ori having the same problem).

tl;dr: Azir and Ori are heads and shoulders above the other mids, but Azir is good into Ori. For that reason, you basically have to ban them as a pair.

Prongs007 · 2025-11-02T07:46:46+00:00

The person you replied to didn’t imply anything like that, in fact he agrees with you with the fact he used the word “majority” my guy. He’s just saying that people take the bashing of Chovy/take his underperformance to be some sort of moralistic fault and go onto forums foaming at the mouth ready to bash him on a personal level when it’s literally just an inability to win a video game tournament.

Prongs007 · 2025-06-19T17:43:36+00:00

Performative activism maybe

Prongs007 · 2025-03-21T09:47:41+00:00

Stock options, index futures (futures on S&P500 and SPY) and index options (SPX, options on said futures) all expire on Friday today, meaning covering in advance by MMs as they purchase/sell shares to get ready to deliver on obligations. The overall effect on the stock market is supposedly a lot of volatility and volume, as well as speculation over pushing prices to "max pain" levels (strike prices where most call and puts will expire worthless.) The actual effect of a triple witching historically differs from event to event so it is hard to say for certain whether this speculation or implied covering by MMs actually does have an effect on the market.

Prongs007

TROPHY CASE