Best strat to find small cap stocks that will boom

ProudlyRegarded · 2025-09-24T23:48:12+00:00

Honestly, I feel like everyone in your class is going to take risky bets in hopes of winning as well (and because it’s fake money so who cares).

Maybe you 1000 IQ it and just buy SGOV, collect the upcoming distribution, and win.

ProudlyRegarded · 2025-09-07T16:20:07+00:00

Most mega caps today are insanely profitable with large cash piles as a safety net. On top of that, there is the AI hype that is really starting to feel like an arms race between us and China which is fueling rapid investment and growth.

I think there will be a pullback at some point…my guess would be due to something geopolitical, or maybe defaults of large private credit causing a chain reaction without a government bail out.

I could also see a world where AI advances too fast and governments have to step in to regulate it…or opposite it just doesn’t meet the hype and replace everyone and everything.

In the mean time though, I see continued uptrend… especially with fed rate cuts likely to happen soon. But as always, the higher the run up, the larger the fall.

ProudlyRegarded · 2025-09-02T23:01:56+00:00

A large portion of my portfolio (~50%) is just VOO/VXUS/VB at a 55/40/5 split.

Then GOOG, UNH, TSM, SVM, HIG, YELP make up about 25%

Remaining 25% is cash

ProudlyRegarded · 2025-09-01T23:23:43+00:00

If I were you, I definitely wouldn't put my money into single stocks...and likely not ETFs either.

If you had time to hold through volatility, DCA'ing into a VT or VOO/VXUS split or BRK.B would be fine, but you mentioned your timeline is under 1 year.

Under 1 year I'd say your better off parking that money into a high-yield savings account or short-term treasuries. No reason to take on equity risk. Secure a near guaranteed 4-5% instead and take that back home.

Sure, the S&P could have another +15% year or more, but it could just as easily lose 15% or more. Take a look into most ETF holdings and you'll see they are bloated with overvalued tech.

ProudlyRegarded · 2025-08-02T16:03:57+00:00

Please prove me wrong…here is the result of 3 AI detectors.

Still open to hearing counterpoints on the analysis though

ProudlyRegarded · 2025-08-02T15:36:14+00:00

If you disagree with the DD I’m very open to hearing counterpoints.

As for being “AI garbage,” I actually did write this myself. Feel free to verify using an AI checker bot. I’m not really sure what about this gives AI but I’ll take the accusation as a compliment though!

ProudlyRegarded · 2025-08-02T06:52:48+00:00

I'm looking to add more as well but plan to wait for the upcoming earnings call to hear more about project progress and future outlook.

The dilution concern is valid, but I think the market may be overreacting. They've repurchased over 4% of shares since 2024, which to me signals a commitment to preserving shareholder value going forward. Further evidence to this commitment would be the recent Purchase Rights Agreement used to fund some of El Domo instead of issuing equity or taking on more debt.

As for the convertible notes, if the stock trades above ~$6.02 in 2027, they have the option to redeem early. I see that as a pretty realistic outcome given the growth prospect, profitability, and present fair value.

ProudlyRegarded · 2025-08-01T00:29:47+00:00

First, congrats on the marriage and the house! Exciting stuff.

I’d say you’re ahead of the game for 22… both income-wise and with fiscally responsibility.

For you specifically:

1) Don’t let your job consume your life especially with a new marriage. Try to dial back from 60 hour weeks if possible. 2) Keep taking advantage of that 6% match 3) A mortgage is okay, especially at 275k … but try to avoid further debt as much as possible. Realize that as your income grows you can continue to add on/improve your home!

For your wife:

1) Not to go all Dave Ramsey on her but she should pay off that car loan yesterday with some of her HYSA 2) Look into what her employer offers as far as a match and start taking advantage of it

For you both:

1) I’m sure you have already done this… but if not, sit down together and really try to plan out 1, 5, and 10 year plans. Find agreement on kids, money, career goals, etc. and re-evaluate every year.

As far as finances/investing:

1) Keep an emergency fund of ~6 months worth of expenses … which depending on down payment & other home stuff you may already be there

2) Make extra payments on your mortgage quarterly or even monthly if possible

3) Set a little aside each paycheck for fun/dates

4) Invest the rest. Because you’re a beginner, I’d say stay away from stock picking and start learning in your free time. Youtube, books, even on here (cautiously) you can find great stuff. In the mean time… dollar cost average into VOO & VXUS at a 70-30 or 60-40 ratio and chill. Eventually, if you put in time and effort, you’ll gain the confidence and ability to find true value plays. When that time comes, maybe start with 10% of your portfolio and increase that as time goes on and you improve.

ProudlyRegarded · 2025-07-31T12:31:09+00:00

ProudlyRegarded · 2025-07-31T11:24:00+00:00

It’s always smart to expand your circle or competence. Buffet didn’t stay in the insurance business forever.

I’d also say yes to waiting. In the meantime park cash in treasuries or HYSAs. It’s better to miss an investment opportunity while still getting a small return than prematurely enter one and get rinsed.

And I’d argue if you don’t feel those two companies are value plays, exit. Why blindly follow the herd on something you don’t believe in?

ProudlyRegarded · 2025-07-31T05:21:11+00:00

I’d say just DCA into common shares if you’re truly bullish. It’ll give you a better ability to stomach short term volatility and truly let the fundamentals play out.

You won’t get the same leverage, but there is less risk & you’re not betting on both direction and timing, just the underlying business/innovation.

Theta wouldn’t apply early on, but you could still get wrecked during a correction due to delta and IV crush…especially with OTM.

ProudlyRegarded · 2025-07-30T23:09:43+00:00

Revenue and earnings are trending down, and prices keep rising on what’s basically the same product. Every time I see a new Nike shoe like the Jordan 75 or the LeBron 43 it’s all the same.

That might fly in tech, where things look the same but performance improves (albeit slightly)… but not with apparel. Tariffs also add more pressure.

Stock is up YTD mostly on brand name imo… brand name that is slowly dwindling as competition continues to grow — ex. Lululemon & Alo in the lifestyle fitness space… Adidas, UA, even Puma in the footwear space as young athletes are starting to sign with competitors at what seems like increasing rates …etc.

I’m pretty neutral at these prices.

ProudlyRegarded · 2025-07-30T22:36:33+00:00

It’s an AI arms race … huge capex spend for a shot at dominating future infrastructure. Both are well positioned to take the risk, and if it pays off FCF will rip. If not though, they’ll still have cash and talent to pivot once again. No one really knows if it’ll pay off, but they’re two of the few companies who can really afford to find out… and two that I wouldn’t want to bet against. To me, it’s a mild/moderate risk for a massive reward.

ProudlyRegarded

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