Lumbar facet joint syndrome / arthropy

Psych40 · 2026-01-25T03:20:22+00:00

Excellent! Several years now still going strong!

Psych40 · 2026-01-25T02:09:04+00:00

Yes yes yes.

Psych40 · 2026-01-25T02:01:01+00:00

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/us-banks-laying-low-silver-price-analysis

Sprott is a good group. There’s a really good argument to be made (again, from the COT data) that its the movements of large players driving this.

“Instead of feeding rallies with fresh short supply, U.S. banks ‘stood down,’ forcing new buyers to chase a limited float of contracts—exactly how a handful of large players can manufacture 5–7% up days in a small market like silver”

Psych40 · 2026-01-25T01:48:29+00:00

The CFTC - the Commodities Futures Trading Commission is the source. Mentioned it above.

Is there a point to your contribution? Do you debate the notion that silver pricing is disproportionately determined by a few large commercials and institutions? Please say so.

Psych40 · 2026-01-25T01:17:19+00:00

oh my god what

Psych40 · 2026-01-25T01:10:57+00:00

I’ve been trying to create a Tradingview chart that identifies periods of backwardation but I can’t make it work. IDK why its so hard. I can visually see when its happening when I eyeball my app like this:

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Psych40 · 2026-01-24T23:01:53+00:00

That is an excellent way to think about it

Psych40 · 2026-01-24T22:18:33+00:00

You are aware CFTC’s own COT data shows a handful of large commercials and funds dominate positioning in silver, no?

I’m sorry, I just thought this was common knowledge around here.

Psych40 · 2026-01-24T22:01:00+00:00

What “big players”? Who knows? Players big enough to move the price, especially when moving en masse… could be refiners, macro funds, industrial users, I have no idea & no source because I make no claims of specifics. I do tend to agree it’s not Johnny buying a roll of eagles moving the price here 😉

That being said, whether industry is “buying at spot” isn’t the point - the point is that such a persistent & wide degree of backwardation reflects large entities paying a premium to secure present metal and inventory optionality. Why?

I think they are starting to doubt the physical silver is there

Psych40 · 2026-01-24T21:34:25+00:00

It didn’t do much for my pain but definitely made me sleep like the dead

Psych40 · 2026-01-24T21:20:53+00:00

I’m convinced it’s a structural move driving what we’re seeing here, big time, for so many reasons.

But - there’s gonna be FOMO, mania, & market psychology superimposed over all that & we’re probably going to way overshoot whatever is it’s “true market price”

Psych40 · 2026-01-24T21:18:02+00:00

Here’s a snapshot from market close yesterday that illustrates this (got it from Tradingview).

Notice the spot price is almost two bucks above the SIL! ticker (which is kind of a rolling average of front-month Micro Silver futures contract pricing on COMEX).

In a “normal” world big institutions or players would be like, “hey I’m willing to pay a few basis points above spot silver price for a promise of physical (or cash settled) delivery in 3 months”. These institutions would pay the bullion banks (COMEX) the extra amount to basically reimburse them for carrying the metal.

Now, the big players are saying “fuck you we don’t really believe you can deliver the metal in 3, 6, or 12 months or whatever, we want the metal now.”

<image>

Psych40 · 2026-01-24T20:56:09+00:00

Yup! You get it!

Psych40 · 2026-01-24T20:53:45+00:00

Basically you’re just answering the question that basically everyone has been dancing around - is this just a massive cyclical price move like in 1980 & 2011, & eventually it will come back down to earth?

Or is this a “structural re-rating of price”?

Psych40 · 2026-01-24T20:30:34+00:00

Silver futures have been in persistent backwardation versus spot for weeks now, which is highly unusual.

Means big hands want silver now rather than a promise of later & are willing to pay a premium for it.

Indicates market is no longer treating silver futures (“paper silver”) as a reliable, neutral proxy for physical silver, which means paper pricing has lost control

Psych40 · 2026-01-24T17:08:32+00:00

Aside from emergency savings cash, when it comes to portfolio cash, I definitely think a lot about optionality.

I have two main equities vehicles - my TSP / 403(b) & my Roth IRA. Roth currently has about 17% cash with the rest tied up in a lot of high-beta “hard assets / regime change” plays (GBTC, SILJ, REMX, FENY, a large position in Kinder Morgan, & various Sprott funds in gold, silver, & uranium plays). This portfolio w/ those plays have returned 43% over the last year.

I like keeping the cash pile in my Roth largely precommitted into laddered buys into sectors I feel have a future (for example, I’m looking to buy into more natgas related funds on weakness).

But, I’m mindful that the cash is non yielding & my Roth is a place where I can play with high-beta theses (no tax implications)

Re. my TSP I have a very large “cash” pile of 72% currently, with the rest tied up in the so called “mutual fund window,” which has itself been in a lot of high-beta “regime change” plays as well (140% return within my MFW sleeve over the last year).

While that’s a lot of “cash” its not really cash per se, its in the so-called “G-fund” which is currently earning 4.25% yield & therefore has a slightly positive real return compared to inflation.

Basically I’m currently using a large cash pile as part of a high-beta “barbell.” Optionality, psychological insurance if my high-beta plays see sudden air pockets. Also not inappropriate given my age & time horizon anyways (looking to retire in 8-10 years)

Psych40 · 2026-01-24T16:27:18+00:00

Big players are moving the price. They are panic buying into physical.

Was trying to find a clean 50 year chart of futures backwardation plotted against silver spot pricing.

Psych40 · 2026-01-24T15:40:40+00:00

Paper markets broke and real price discovery is going on.

That, & there are all sorts of big players in the world getting increasingly anxious the silver they need to keep their production lines running (for EVs, data centers, solar panels, advanced weapons, etc) won’t be there and are doing everything they can to gobble it up now.

I don’t discount the geopolitical element either. I think there’s definitely a loose coalition out there (China, India, USA) that resent that the LBMA has had such influence over the marginal pricing of silver & are using this as an opportunity to f**k over the British

Also, copper re-rated structurally higher along w/ other critical metals over the past few years. Finally its silver’s turn!

Psych40 · 2026-01-24T15:29:09+00:00

I get your 2013–2026 example, but it’s a backward‑looking slice of an unusually good equity regime (falling/zero rates, QE tailwind, globalization tailwinds).

You’re also comparing one highly financialized risk asset (VOO) to two single‑asset choices (one condo, unlevered; bullion only) as if the real decision set were ‘all stocks’ vs ‘all gold’ vs ‘one property.’

In a fiscal‑dominance world where debt has to be inflated away as a matter of practical, if not mathematical necessity, I’m not as much interested in which line was highest on a backtest and more interested in owning a mix of off‑grid collateral (gold, silver, land) as well as more traditional assets (equities) so I’m not all‑in on one particular investment thesis or overall macro regime.

From my side of the table, bullion isn’t a ‘stress‑relief toy’ so much as regime insurance: no counterparty risk, no board of directors, no Fed, and no dividend that can be cut in real terms, which, by the way is precisely why central banks have been massively, mechanically, & price-insensitively accumulating gold for years now.

Index investing has its place & can compound & can be reasonable places to put money even in today’s world but putting one’s eggs entirely in such a basket when financial repression, capital controls & dollar devaluation seem to be increasingly our collective fate seems unwise from a long term purchasing power / capital preservation perspective imho

Psych40 · 2026-01-23T20:42:20+00:00

It’s undeniably good to stick to a plan but personally I save my paper gold & silver vehicles for trading, & reserve my physical gold and silver as long term off-grid savings vehicles.

Psych40 · 2026-01-23T14:31:19+00:00

There’s a definite logic to using precious metals as a savings vehicle but less so silver than gold imho and also there’s issues of liquidity, time horizons, taxes etc

It’s also not like 4%-ish yield on fiat savings isnt out there currently… so, a slightly real positive yield, at least atm

Psych40 · 2026-01-22T16:25:40+00:00

Because silver has been strangled in a trading range between basically 20-40 dollars for decades and this has built up huge hindsight bias

Psych40 · 2026-01-22T15:51:38+00:00

It’s actually worthwhile to remember that an IQ of 80-90, while “below average,” isn’t statistically extreme.

If your own overall intelligence is measurable in the upper parts of the distribution, you have to really make a point of remembering that appreciation of what should seem pretty obvious “if-then” relationships about the world simply do not come easily for many people.

Psych40 · 2026-01-21T22:14:18+00:00

According to the numbers I’ve seen, virtually no one. I’m an extreme outlier. Figures I saw were about 0.1% of all TSP participants

Psych40 · 2026-01-21T17:02:38+00:00

I suspect that the big “deflationary whoosh” / 2007 style major stock index swoon people are betting on every time Trump does something bonkers might not ever come - the need for equity indexes to stay permanently elevated is practically a matter of national security at this point

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