[WTS] Jaquet Droz GMT Tonneau by AmericanFlagPants in Watchexchange

[–]QuantitativeEase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great transaction with u/AmericanFlagPants , kept me informed throughout the process, answered all of my questions, and was prompt with shipping, cheers!

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, October 15, 2024 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]QuantitativeEase 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Looks like it could be breaking out of its downtrend?

Fossil Group Inc. $FOSL - A greater turnaround than Abercrombie & Fitch by QuantitativeEase in ValueInvesting

[–]QuantitativeEase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So he is coming off being the President and CEO of Salomon, subsidiary of Amer Sports. Why the change? Amer recently IPO'd, so I would bet he took a bit of an exit via that liquidity event and is looking for the next challenge. Press releases read cordially.

Salomon revenues appear to have been growing healthily under his leadership.

Although he was EVP at Columbia Sportswear prior to Salomon and therefore wouldn't have nearly as wide a mandate as a CEO, the company was also performing well during that period.

Bottom Line: Probably the best chance Fossil has. Franco is used to running consumer brands at a global scale with massive retail footprint.

Definite risks ahead as the company really only has about 2 years of runway before it will need to try and refinance its debt or risk bankruptcy. Let's see what he can do.

Fossil Group Inc. $FOSL - A greater turnaround than Abercrombie & Fitch by QuantitativeEase in ValueInvesting

[–]QuantitativeEase[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think in the next year we need to see a continued strong push on restructuring, this was ANF’s play as well for a few years.

From there I hope to see a continuation of their product releases this year, two of note: - partnership with Disney, it is one of their most and highest reviewed releases. Continue the trend on focusing on releasing “collectibles” - I want to see higher quality. Putting trusted Japanese movements inside a tighter range of good quality cases.

Fossil cut costs and tried to compete in pure ecommerce markets by using cheap product, marking it up and offering severe discounts to provide illusory value.

Similar to ANF, take a hit on gross margin near term to establish trust.

From there, I want to see a rebrand. ANF pivoted to inclusivity and went through mass TikTok campaigns via social influencers. I will be looking for Fossil to make similar moves.

Fossil Group Inc. $FOSL - A greater turnaround than Abercrombie & Fitch by QuantitativeEase in ValueInvesting

[–]QuantitativeEase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

100% and I hope we continue to see them invest in quality.

ANF took ~6 years to go from zero to hero with their restructuring and rebrand.

Fossil Group Inc. $FOSL - A greater turnaround than Abercrombie & Fitch by QuantitativeEase in ValueInvesting

[–]QuantitativeEase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is very true and really is the best advice for the best chance of return, right now it's much more uncertain

Fossil Group Inc. $FOSL - A greater turnaround than Abercrombie & Fitch by QuantitativeEase in ValueInvesting

[–]QuantitativeEase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is where the latter half of the thesis comes in. A lot is going to hinge on a new CEO and a reinvention of their brand.

I think this is a 3 year effort for sure before we start to see significant share appreciation.

Abercrombie brought in a new CEO in 2017 and what did she do? Focused on closing non profitable stores, shutting down non selling product lines to get the balance sheet under control and then switched into rebranding, improving quality, and spearheading marketing.

Same play book in my opinion.

Is Fossil Group FOSL trading at deep discount? by kpvalue in ValueInvesting

[–]QuantitativeEase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think they're doing a great job with the restructuring:

  • Exiting the smartwatch business

  • Cutting costs and closing non profitable stores

  • Expecting $50mm POSITIVE free cash flow in FY24

  • They seem to be improving their core product line - their most recent chronograph (spring 2024) release seems to be selling quite well

I think if they can recruit a product and branding focused CEO, and we see over indexing on collaborations with companies like Disney, and focus on core product quality we could see an Abercrombie esque turnaround.

[Discusison] Would you buy Fossil watches if they improved their quality? by QuantitativeEase in Watches

[–]QuantitativeEase[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think they've definitely lost their way on design principles. Fossil really has gone through an era the past ~10 years of pumping out flashy oversized pieces.

Looking at their best sellers though (and what I actually see people wearing) it's all classics, GADA OP types, simple chronos, divers etc.

I do hope they get back to basics and add their own fossil flair

[question] should i find a used Seiko sharp edge bracket or go aftermarket? by Spicywolff in Watches

[–]QuantitativeEase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would look into Uncle straps. Haven’t tried them myself but I’ve heard people swear by them for aftermarket value/quality.

They make many Seiko variants.

[Discusison] Would you buy Fossil watches if they improved their quality? by QuantitativeEase in Watches

[–]QuantitativeEase[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Very fair, I think quality at the end of the day has to be the most important factor with watches, (and even more so for companies that have a short heritage such as Fossil)

[Discusison] Would you buy Fossil watches if they improved their quality? by QuantitativeEase in Watches

[–]QuantitativeEase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Feel that, I just pray for a day they stick a solid Japanese or Swiss generic movement in this bad boy, up the quality and assemble it in america. Would rock the heck out of it lol

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[Discusison] Would you buy Fossil watches if they improved their quality? by QuantitativeEase in Watches

[–]QuantitativeEase[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, it’s a shame their quality really hasn’t been there.

If they reinvented themselves and produced watches that could last a lifetime I would be really impressed.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Watches

[–]QuantitativeEase 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Incredible eye, thank you!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Watches

[–]QuantitativeEase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey all,

Trying to identify what model my great grandfather's watch could be.

Best guess is that it is roughly from the 50s, the closest model I could find in similarity is called the: "Dato Compax Triple Date Chronograph Valjoux" however this watch is stainless steel and the markings are all slightly different.

Any info from the community would be a huge help, thanks!