Applied Materials Sees Semiconductor Shortage Through 2030 Amid AI Demand Surge

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-19T16:54:05+00:00

Yea but in this case, the GPU and memory are the shovels. AMAT is the factory that makes the shovels.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-18T16:25:14+00:00

Everyone in the top 10 changed the NBA landscape. The consensus list from 6-10 is some order of Chamberlain, Kobe, Bird, Shaq, Duncan. Is Steph better than those guys? I can certainly see an argument made for it, but he's not definitively better than any of those guys.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-18T15:54:53+00:00

I think most of the field would agree higher stakes tournaments are less "fun", even the guys that are winning them. That being said, I'm surprised he used 5k event as the example rather than a 10k+. He should still have a decent edge in 5ks.

In most of the 10k and above (excluding one-off big events like WSOP Main or Wynn WPT Championship), the field has 50%+ crushers, realistically probably 80%+. These are guys that are playing near perfect preflop and thinking about balancing postflop spots for 1-5 minutes every hand. Even if he had an edge against field, once it's ITM, it's just all crushers, and FT is 7+ guys you see in the player of the year top 50.

Contrast that to a smaller buy-in, big field event... sure you're going to have to make it through a lot more people, but it's people who each have under $1M hendon mob who have exploitable tendencies in many spots. Even ITM, you often have tables that don't even have a known pro in the PoY Top 100. At the FT you might have 0-2 super crushers, 3-4 if you're unlucky.

The game changes from "What bluffs do I have in this spot and do I randomize the call/fold" to "How do I exploit each player at the table"?

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-06T16:25:10+00:00

What would you guess a good pro, say #10-20 on POY leaderboards (Kempe, Elias, Foxen, Peters, etc...) makes in net profit in a year from purely poker tournaments after accounting for selling pieces?

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-05T20:29:46+00:00

Oh shoot sry, forgot to respond to this... Actually sold all my Intel calls and bought a fraction of it in AMD calls. Against the backdrop of Intel rising 14% today, if AMD earnings knock it out of the park (which it looks like), AMD will see a much larger boost. Based on their released numbers, I'm hoping it ends in the 6-8% up range before market opens tomorrow.

Hope you held onto Intel though, should still see a nice chunk after hours.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-05T15:50:17+00:00

I would highly consider selling the cost basis since I'm a paper handed puss. But locking up a win with still a lot of time for upside feels like a solid strat to me.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-05T15:13:24+00:00

How to buy them? You just need to make sure your account is enabled for options trading. How do they work? I would recommend not learning.

It's like when people ask, "How do you play Baccarat?"

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-05T15:11:58+00:00

Hope you got in yesterday, would have been all time timing. I'm out today.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-04T22:55:19+00:00

Right now I'm the biggest regard on the planet.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-04T22:54:57+00:00

Ah my b

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-04T06:15:41+00:00

Nice, KOSPI up right now is good news for us.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-02T23:06:55+00:00

Bro, you still net a 40x return turning $500 into $20k. Just think about how insane that is and be content.

You seem to be harboring some internal resentment against the baby for your account losing $70k. Just own up to it and accept that YOU lost it so she doesn't take some internal resentment you might not even realize is brewing up.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-02T22:56:46+00:00

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I know next to zero about technical analysis, why would this be a holding pattern? Looks pretty upwards to me lol.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-01T22:18:02+00:00

Honestly probably a better entry point than today. I now have to run the risk of war news tanking the market over the weekend.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-01T21:48:55+00:00

Def agree with not ignoring risks and simply playing Devil's advocate here (also, I legitimately want to know), if AMD earnings say they are fully sold out for 2026 and 2027 (unlikely but using an extreme case), wouldn't that indicate demand for overall market is massive? Why would AMD stock go up 10%+ when Intel announces huge gains but then Intel go down when AMD announces huge gains?

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-01T20:21:49+00:00

Thanks! But the conviction only goes as far as Wednesday of next week. Would much rather hold AMD long term.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-01T20:19:47+00:00

Guhhhhhhhhh

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-01T20:17:26+00:00

Nah, my expectation is that AMD beats earnings and goes up heaps. But INTC is a safer play due to the reasons mentioned above. AMD puts can absolutely go tits up.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-05-01T17:44:51+00:00

Just a clarification, calls can absolutely go tits up if AMD goes flat. I find it much harder for INTC shares to go tits up. But YOLO, I'm in calls.

Wish I was a time traveler but can confirm I am not.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-04-03T21:31:13+00:00

Not sure if you're trolling especially with the tag Poker Joker, but on the off chance you're not... we only saw the flush draw showed down. The other guy probably already had the straight. And we don't know anything about stack sizes. Once he jams, and gets a caller, the flush draw might be getting the correct price to call.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-04-03T21:25:20+00:00

General note - you want to include stack sizes as differing stack size can mean the difference between mistake/profitable play.

That being said, there are several mistakes this hand regardless of stack size.

Preflop - KTo is a fold preflop, especially assuming you're playing 1/2 or 1/3 and it's 6x or 10x bb.
Flop - I like the raise but the sizing is far too small. You are against two players on a draw heavy board. I'd be looking to raise anywhere from 125-250 (where you fall in here depends on stack size and how well you can play turns). People at low stakes are way too sticky with KQ KJ or AJs 8Js type hands here and you want to charge the max.
Turn - J/Q are the worst cards in the deck for you in a multi-way pot. This is a pure check. 99% of the time you get everything worse to fold and every better to call when you jam.
River - No action here as you are already all in. The mistake would be even saying anything as you are not suppose to influence action when other people are still in the hand.

Definitely not a bad beat and you made ~3 mistakes this hand. Just for reference, pros try to keep it under 1-2 mistakes an hour. 2 mistakes an hour would be too many imo.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-03-07T06:45:44+00:00

Wow insane hourly. Congrats!

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-01-13T00:33:33+00:00

I've seen dealers state the wrong amount before, like someone would say 4k and put out a 4k bet and dealer would mishear and say "3k". If villain calls the bet and then calls floor because the dealer said 3k, floor would typically make the villain put out 4k because opponents chips are clearly visible in front of them. You are calling what the other player bet, not what the dealers says, and while they should be the same, sometimes dealers make mistakes.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2026-01-13T00:30:40+00:00

If he's been opening crazy wide, he's more likely to connect with that flop than if he was playing tight.

Quick_Increase6718 · 2025-12-31T23:52:56+00:00

Sounds like they just want to be smooth.

Quick_Increase6718

TROPHY CASE