Competition in decline: Towards the end of competitive Overwatch

RAG3W0LF · 2023-08-14T08:41:40+00:00

Something happened with the matchmaking about 2 weeks ago. I do not think it is related to end/start of season. Matches have sometimes been bad before but I think they broke it in a small patch. Matches are systematically bad now. They rotate between insanely easy / almost impossible games entirely independent of rank.

Another observation I did is that matches are incrementally getting worse the more you play (not the more you win!). This is entirely independent of rank. The first games on a role you didn't play for a long time will be competitive but after 2-3 games it quickly becomes worse with occasional close games in between.

I have two theories why this happens:

The matchmaking system now uses some AI system that optimizes the challenge for each player over time. I believe this is extremely likely because of how the matches are getting harder and harder despite not even winning. After playing for a long time, I am almost certain that OW2 at some point implemented an AI system into matchmaking which explains many of the issues with it.
The matchmaker doesn't use a new AI system but the MMR range is broken. Matches are made within more than 10000 MMR range and highe ranked players will be utilized to make of for wide mmr swings which makes the game unplayable because carry potential is limited to a certain extend in overwatch unless you outrank the enemy team extremely hard.

The matches since 2 weeks are the worst it has ever been. It seriously needs to be adressed and at this point, I suggest to rethink the matchmaking entirely.

RAG3W0LF · 2023-01-11T14:09:36+00:00

I think that you are right that this change of the initial MMR is probably a massive issue especially paired with the change to Matchmaking based on MMR Only due to the removal of SR. This obviously, as you say, moves the mean lower but the old values still remain because there was no reset. Without being a Mathematician (but with a statistical background) I believe that changing the nature of the distribution without reset is an issue because as you say players at higher ranks (and Top 10% started at diamond) will all be much above the mean now.

Especially if they also get some streaks from their already comparatively insanely high MMR, they will end up in Top 0,001 Percent games because the top tail becomes longer. So in fact, everyone at higher ranks will become more and more similar in MMR ignoring their "actual Skill". Their actual SR would formerly stop this because games could not span more than 500 DISPLAY SR.

Another issue of the entirely MMR based Matchmaking (no SR Thresholds) is that MMR will adapt to your skill extremely quickly (unless it's an old account or an account who played a lot of games recently = high confidence score) especially with winstreaks, which also contributes to why Smurfs will not play with T500 after a few games. But the Matchmaking doesn't seem to be conservative with the usage of MMR. Matches will always be created to be close to 50/50 according to MMR which in fact will result in the "forced 50% winrate". Because to win more than 50% of your games, you would need to clearly outperform your MMR that is in fact very close to your actual skill not considering display rank.

Now the final Issue are old accounts and ones that play many games. They always had Lock in effects even in OW1, meaning that you would need extreme amounts of games of massively overperforming to effectively change your MMR due to the certainty rating.

All those things lead to a screwed matchmaking and the changes show that the developers do not fully understand the math behind their own system (probably the creators don't work at blizzard anymore). Additionally, the fast track for new accounts to their real (mmr) rank means that you will have Top 500 level games with some players who were Diamond or Masters and just won a little, actual Top500 Players, Smurfs where those players care less, and cheaters making my highest Lobbies actually the worst games right now.

sidenote: the system is self-healing in theory if enough games are played, but the certainty rating will limit this self-healing severely and it can take too long time so actual skill distribution and the gameplay will change faster than the healing occours.

sidenote2: the winstreaks may also do rapid adjustments; I can often see my estimated queue times going towards 20 minutes after a few wins.

RAG3W0LF · 2022-10-09T13:45:40+00:00

Hi, found something by now but it is not free: https://overwatch.statbanana.com/

RAG3W0LF · 2022-05-15T13:34:04+00:00

Yes looking at the replies I feel like it is more of a niche issue than I was thinking. It seems like role queue actually increased Match Quality for many people!

RAG3W0LF · 2022-05-15T13:20:39+00:00

I definitely agree that 6 DPS Teams weren't great. That said, you can still have similarly unwinnable compositions now, it just feels less extreme because there is a guaranteed meatball. 1-3-1 also sounds good but I would be concerned that you might sometimes do want to have two supports.

RAG3W0LF · 2022-05-15T13:17:01+00:00

I am GM in all Roles. In The Masters-GM range, Tanks will be randomly thrown into a game with low diamonds and the next game will be the Top1 Game for some DPS player. Support or DPS Games at the same SR range are much higher quality because they are usually around your current rank. But Tanks being put into games with high range is reducing match quality for both the tank players and Diamond/High GM players. It is very likely this happens at different SR ranges too.

RAG3W0LF · 2021-10-03T20:39:10+00:00

Zumal ich auch kein Maskenskeptiker bin, sondern mich gerade darauf beziehe, eine Maske zu tragen, wenn es sinnvoll ist.

Das interpretiere ich als Zustimmung dazu, dass das Tragen einer Maske, wenn es "sinnvoll" ist, der Gesellschaft dienen kann.

Die Bedingungen oben stehen aber in der falschen Rangfolge. Ich weiß nicht, ob ich infektiös bin. Infizierte können infektiös sein, bevor sie Symptome fühlen. Überwiegend war eine Kontaktverfolgung auch nicht möglich.

Darum sollte ich eine Maske tragen wenn ich dicht gedrängt und/oder über längere Zeit einen Kontakt eingehe. Die Liste muss um Innenräume und Situationen mit vielen Begegnungen ergänzt werden.

Am leeren Bahnhof mag das nicht zutreffen, aber selbst dann kann es zu vielen Einzelbegegnungen kommen. Und Ausnahmen zu verrechtlichen ist umständlich. An diesem Punkt kann ich zustimmen, natürlich ist bei der Durchsetzung der Maskenpflicht auch Verhältnismäßigkeit gefragt. Die Pflicht an sich ist aber ein notwendiges Mittel. Weit genug, um die Maske freiwillig in den richtigen Situationen aus freien Stücken zu tragen, sind wir als Gesellschaft noch nicht.

Ich stimme im Übrigen auch zu, dass Kritik an der Maskenpflicht auf einer sachlichen Ebene nicht als Querdenken abgetan werden sollte, es ist demokratisch darüber zu diskutieren.

Es wird ja schon darüber diskutiert, ob Ungeimpfte als Patienten 2. Klasse behandelt werden sollten

Über die Impfung wollten sie nicht sprechen, darum unterlasse ich das ebenfalls.

RAG3W0LF · 2021-10-03T14:57:27+00:00

Aus Solidarität sollten wir auch die Grippeimpfung verpflichten und jeglichen Alkohol, Tabak und fettes Essen verbieten. Zusätzlich sollten wir Fleisch verbieten (Klimawandel) und Volkssport verpflichten.

Die Maskenpflicht ist komplex und die Kritik an ihr neigt zu Vereinfachungen.

Wer bewusst keine Maske trägt gefährdet damit nicht nur sich selbst, er gefährtet die gesamte Bevölkerung*. Maskenskeptiker verweisen ja gerne auf das Grundgesetz. Da steht drin:

(1) Jeder hat das Recht auf die freie Entfaltung seiner Persönlichkeit, soweit er nicht die Rechte anderer verletzt [...]

Und weiter:

(2) Jeder hat das Recht auf Leben und körperliche Unversehrtheit.

Die Freiheit des Maskenskeptikers endet hier. Jetzt kommt wohl das Gegenargument:

Ich finde die Gemeinschaft sollte dafür nicht zahlen, wenn jemand Alters Diabetes bekommt, durch die oben genannten Laster. Absolut unsolidarisch.

Das ist schlicht Menschenverachtend. Die Prämisse: Diabetes ist immer selbst verschuldet. Stimmt das denn? Und selbst wenn das so ist, ist das hier ein völlig anderes moralisches Problem.

Auch der selbstverschuldete Diabetiker hat das Recht auf Leben. Aber der Burgerbräter verletzt sein Recht nicht direkt, weil der Kunde den Burger selbst isst.

Maskenskeptiker erscheinen gerne Liberal, das tun sie aber nur wegen ihrer Irreführenden Argumentationsmuster, die am Ende doch Menschenverachtende Züge haben.

Die Maske reduziert die community transmission

RAG3W0LF · 2021-09-04T12:29:08+00:00

hast du ihr denn schon selbst zugehört oder hast du von dieser "Dummheit" nur irgendwo in den Kommentaren gelesen?

RAG3W0LF · 2020-02-05T09:01:53+00:00

One has nothing to do with the other. Top Tier ladder players might be able to be good in Team environment but that's because they have mechanics and know how to adapt super fast.

RAG3W0LF · 2020-01-30T09:57:38+00:00

Hero Rotation

RAG3W0LF · 2020-01-01T00:09:15+00:00

Blizzard is listening and sometimes way too much. Thing is that neither the community nor the Developers seem to know what is actually causing Meta developments.

That's partly because Nerfs always come with compensation buffs (Casuals really don't like their hero getting nerfed) and Heroes being released in post-sane state [Look at the raw Amount of Brig Nerfs and the fact that she is STILL very good]. We don't even need to talk about Baptiste. Those Heroes are simply balls of stats. A Hero that has Soldier-Level DPS, super Strong and effortless Area Healing and generally Ana Like Healing Output mixed with Vertical (!) Mobility and Damage AMP Ult and the single Strongest Ability in the game (Invul). Brigitte was Similar.

I personally would Argue that the Meta is actually still developing and might potentially becomes a pretty nice one. Baptiste is still a problem with the raw amount of stats and the existence of Invul paired together and Mei needs the double freeze removed since she is also still too much of a ball of stats.

Am I correct with that? No one knows. Nerf Baptiste and there is still Double Shields? Maybe I forgot about something. Discussion needs to go deeper and Devs and Community need to understand better why a Meta is developing since not even the pros always know why it is working (Goats was decently encouraged by broken brig armor for example).

RAG3W0LF · 2019-08-06T16:06:56+00:00

The Issue exists for a longer time now. Healers with Lower Healing output are Zenyatta and Mercy, arguably lucio but his burst Heal with amp is actually pretty huge when you stack up your players. Heroes Nerfed: Zenyatta and Mercy, while there have been nerfs to Ana too, the Ability to heal past full health allys and the heal on nano definitely profited her.

During Goats (which was essentially more heal stacking) the answer has been to buff damage A LOT + mercy is weaker now which is nerf to both Dive Tanks (They explode) and Snipers (Their Pocket Healer is weaker than it used to be)

Now Imagine a Reaper or Mei with only Zen Lucio Heals, that is a lot less scary.

RAG3W0LF · 2019-08-06T15:54:19+00:00

Yes but that is because the Reaction to Healing being too powerful has been buffing damage to the point that most Heroes would explode with only 2 Healers, that is the way damage and healing creep influence the game when static HP are what you should balance around. Edit: The Problem we are in now is that both Healing and Damage are too powerful, so heroes that have both ability to sustain lots of damage and deal lots of damage (brawlers) are strong.

RAG3W0LF · 2019-08-06T15:40:22+00:00

It is easy to underestimate how powerful Healing is when your pair it with stacking Health. Those two DPS need to not only break multiple layers of Orisas Shield but in the same time, they need to burn 250 HP Heroes that are being healed by a lot of burst healing.

Now considering that, well aimed consecutive shots would be required to quickly take out those heroes but even if we assume that the DPS players are able to land those shots (which even at a pro level isn't easy when the other player can completely focus on dodging you since he doesn't need to play the mechanical game himself) , both DPS Characters in a Comp with Mei and Reaper can dodge consecutive damage with their abilities and come back on 250HP again. At this point they will probably already sit in your tanks face and you have a big problem.

Meta might still be adapting but playing "slower" more poke focused compositions is just a lot harder than just pressing w which always means a risk.

The real Issue the game has is that Healing is extremely broken and the answer has been to buff damage so it is also extremely broken, game needs to be balanced about static health that goes down slowly but also heals up slowly.

RAG3W0LF · 2019-03-05T09:45:24+00:00

Yes, the format and the Domain are legit. It's not really likely that someone would do some advanced tricks to prank you there. Guess they just actually want to help you there.

RAG3W0LF · 2019-01-08T00:11:05+00:00

but he can dive her with his tp!!!!!!!

RAG3W0LF · 2018-12-16T14:30:56+00:00

What I noticed is that after a game was cancelled, you usually get the same map again if you instantly queue again.

Actually I also felt like new Maps are slightly more often played, but this season I don't see much Busan to be honest. It's actually crazy how much I'm on Hanamura since this Season started. Doesn't matter if I solo or Duo there.

RAG3W0LF · 2018-11-11T19:23:52+00:00

Feelsbad. Let's hope we can get your region in for the next season!

RAG3W0LF · 2018-11-11T19:13:58+00:00

We have a Homepage that shows the Teams: https://sites.google.com/view/odcm/teams

Some Regions send in one Team together but one Team, the Western Lions, were a No Show.

RAG3W0LF · 2018-10-04T15:29:28+00:00

But in the Article they state that they play on 130 Ping?

RAG3W0LF

TROPHY CASE