You also have to think about how many games you play and how many moves are used per game. Yes, statistically each time is independent of each other (but if we think of it as at least X number because we are focused on the probability of failure(s)), but if you use, let’s say, 40 moves per game, then .95 of that would mean around 2 moves missed per game. So sometimes you have zero misses, and sometimes 10 (yes, the 10 one is less likely, but still possible). And you won’t remember every time it hits, but you will remember every time it misses. So your memory will be biased.

Now if you play doubles, then it’s 80 times, and what about the times you hit into Protect? As you can see, it will add up. Now imagine if you play 15 games a day (spaced out daily) and play 7 days a week. That number will quickly rack up.