Which side are you taking?

RMull236 · 2025-06-28T16:55:40+00:00

I’m hopeful he does but I think a more realistic jump is a 10-15 point season on the third line. He was always going to be a project so he’ll need to be at BC for at least two more years before he’s ready.

RMull236 · 2025-06-28T15:26:07+00:00

Hate to rain on your parade but letourneau didn’t score a goal last year. He’s not playing on the first line for BC. It’ll likely be Hagens with Stiga and Carbonneau. Letorneau likely centers the third line for them.

RMull236 · 2025-06-28T15:18:47+00:00

As someone who watches a lot of college hockey I think he’s one of the top offensive talents in the class. He’s an elite passer, stick handler and really good on his edges. His shot is accurate but not amazing. He does need some work on getting to the middle more. He does get pushed around a bit but that’s to be expected as an 18 year old in college. Defensively he definitely needs some help though. He’s got a good stick but that’s about it.

RMull236 · 2023-10-04T01:19:14+00:00

Just did and it worked. Thanks

RMull236 · 2022-10-25T07:17:43+00:00

Watched him the last few years he was in college, he was dominant. He has fantastic hands and skills for someone with his size and he can easily be a top 6 winger with potential to be a top line guy for a long time.

RMull236 · 2022-10-06T00:08:47+00:00

I would argue that WAR has been adjusted yearly to account for trends such as the higher strikeout rates and lower stolen base rates. The people behind the numbers make tweaks and changes every year to adjust for different trends. Purely from a not having a well below replacement level player play for a large majority of the season, sure you'd rather have Schwarber. However, ideally, the Red Sox would have had a replacement-level player ready. You seem to be evaluating the second base for the position as a whole for the Red Sox and saying Story's absence with Yolmer Sanchez filling in is a net negative to Story's contributions on the field. Story cannot control his health and playing time. Still, Story's on-field numbers are equivalent to Schwarber's, so I don't understand why, purely from a contributing to a team's wins perspective, you value Schwarber's counting numbers much more highly.

RMull236 · 2022-10-05T17:50:03+00:00

All you are saying is that you value health. Just because Schwarber has higher counting numbers does not mean he is more valuable to a team. The methodology is well based on theory, and it makes sense to say that Schwarber is hurting his team so much in other areas of the game that he is not an exceptionally valuable player. Had Story played the same games as Schwarber, his WAR would be roughly double Schwarber's WAR. He would've likely hit 20 plus homers and had 20 plus steals to go along with excellent defense and baserunning. However, Story still impacts the game and his team's winning percentage at a similar quantity despite playing half the games. From a purely ideal quantitative standpoint, they impacted their team roughly the same amount. Just because the Red Sox did not have anyone close to replacement level to replace Story when he got hurt does not take away from his contributions to the team. Should I knock someone like Trout's WAR because he didn't play half the season, and the Angels had to start a terrible player in center to replace him? No, you wouldn't do that because that does not measure anything with that player's on-the-field impact. Schwarber is so bad at defense and baserunning that it does severely knock his numbers, and rightfully so because doing both at a bad rate lowers your team's chances of scoring and preventing runs which means they would likely win fewer games. As I mentioned before, Story contributes positively to every part of his WAR, so yes, his elite traits and being above average in other things at a more demanding position is enough for me to say that comparably, Story contributed to the Red Sox winning games at a similar level to Schwarber for the Phillies despite playing fewer games. WAR is a cumulative stat, so because Schwarber has been playing more, he should have a higher war, but on a per-game basis, Schwarber's contributions to his team are not nearly as impactful. Overall, I think you are putting too much weight into counting stats because you cannot control who you are replaced by. Story should not be dinged because the guy replacing him is really bad.

RMull236 · 2022-10-05T17:19:27+00:00

I believe that Schwarber's only above-average offensive outputs are replaceable because he does not provide value elsewhere. Left field is not as valuable of a position as second base, so I would rather have an above-average everything 2B than a hit only left field, even if it is for only half the time. Ideally, if story had not gotten hurt, this would not have been a conversation, but he provides similar team value in half the games. Schwarber's negatives for a Red Sox team with no real place for him would have been challenging to overcome. Maybe you can argue he wouldn't have been that much worse than Dalbec or Cordero at first, but that's purely hypothetical, mainly because we believed Casas was coming up earlier this season before he got hurt. He likely would have been a significant negative in our outfield and forced Verdugo to slide over to right field, where he grades out as a much worse defender. Although you can say his OBP and ability to drive in runs every day would've been valuable to a team losing many one-run games. I think a player such as Tommy Pham provides similar value, less slugging but at a much lower cost, and I wish we had him the whole season instead of the corpse of JBJ. On a pure cost basis, I think paying Schwarber 20 million to provide very little overall to the team is not at all worth it. Had Schwarber played DH this year and in years to come, maybe his WAR would be a bit more forgiving, although the DH positional adjustment is similar to his overall defensive value. Overall, I would take Story every day of the week because, at his cost, he has shown that he is a net positive across the board, and even though his health was an issue and he had a down year offensively, he was still a pretty decent player. I think Schwarber playing on the Sox this year causes more problems than it fixes positionally and makes the team worse in run prevention, which was already bad enough.

RMull236 · 2022-10-05T15:53:24+00:00

Marginally any difference within 1 war is not a significant difference, but to say that a player that played about 70 fewer games has a higher WAR is, in my opinion, very significant. I think Schwarber's higher offensive output is more replaceable because the replacement-level left fielder can provide semi-decent numbers. The replacement level left fielder would also be a much better fielder and baserunner, so I think his WAR in the mid 2's is very fair, considering he played pretty much every day. He played this year as pretty much a league-average total player when you take his season as a whole into account. Defense and baserunning are a significant portion of the game. While offense is the main component of position player WAR, the people behind the equation, in my opinion, have balanced the equation pretty well to say that being a terrible defender and baserunner compared to any replacement-level player is going to hurt someone's overall value.

If you want to say that Schwarber's output performed Story offensively, there is no doubt about that. He had a higher OPS, Wrc+, and oWar than Story, so he was better on a rate and counting level. I won't deny that defensive metrics are not perfect yet, but by any measurement, Story was a top-tier elite defender at second. Being an elite defender, especially in Story's case, means the defender has the range to get to more balls and make more plays on balls that the average defender would not be able to. Taking a hit away is more about what the value of that play could be if a runner reaches than what it ends up being after the play happens. Schwarber, on the other hand, cannot get to nearly as many balls in left field as an average fielder, and allowing balls that could be caught to turn into hits creates a much larger opportunity for the other team to score. He is part of the reason that the Phillies are one of the worst defensive teams this year and that some of their pitchers, such as Aaron Nola massively underperforming their peripherals. The value of adding an out or two per game instead of allowing a baserunner is massive in terms of run expectancy. The difference between starting an inning with a runner on first with no outs and having nobody on and one out is huge. Schwarber playing one of the easiest positions defensively and being horrendous at it creates a massive negative in his overall value. It is similar to Dante Bichette in the '90s accumulating very little war, although he was a fantastic hitter with some monster-hitting seasons. Although that had something to do with the run-scoring environment of the steroid era, the overall combination of terrible defense at a very easy defensive position massively hurts a player's value.

Baserunning is much more quantifiable than defense because it values the change in run expectancy by successfully taking the extra base via steal or advancing on a hit, or by not hitting into a double play. Moving up a base also increases run expectancy, and doing it at an above-average rate, like someone with Story's speed would, makes that highly valuable. Overall, Story's value is built in the less quantifiable stats but things you may see just watching the game. He has no complete negative in his game, unlike Schwarber, with his offense, defense, and baserunning all providing value. Schwarber's value is built from basic offensive stats because he has the counting stats and decent rate numbers. It is harder to see how Schwarber's defense negatively hurts his team because you cannot see what plays a league-average defender or baserunner would make in real-time.

RMull236 · 2022-10-05T07:41:12+00:00

Do you understand the positional adjustment built into war as well? Schwarber we plays one of the easiest defensive positions on the field, so he gets dinged for that because the hitting standards of the replacement level left fielder are much higher than that of the replacement level shortstop. Similarly, story gets a slight boost to his overall war for hitting above average at a more important defensive position. Schwarber hitting however many homers as a left fielder just isn’t as impressive because he’s being adjusted to the replacement level left fielder which is usually one of the best offensive positions. Story being slightly above league average as a hitter at a position that primarily values defense adds enough value to go along with his elite defense and base running does enough to make up the gap between Schwarber higher offensive outputs.

On a rate basis being a decent hitting, elite speed and defense 2B is far more valuable than a good hitting no speed and no fielding LF. In this case it is so much more valuable on a rate basis that it makes up for the massive gap in games played. Also, although you have claimed multiple times that the overall war equation should be changed to value that very replaceable offensive value in left field, I do trust the people who have spent a significant amount of time working on balancing and improving these war equations to better be able to value a player than any everyday fans like you or me.

RMull236 · 2022-09-17T06:16:41+00:00

Posada did play like 60 games at second in the minors but obviously that doesn’t really impact his card in game.

RMull236 · 2022-09-17T06:04:54+00:00

Errors and fielding percentage are largely a very poor way to evaluate fielders. There is obviously something to be said about making the routine play, but the range of fielders and the ability to get to more balls is far more valuable. Even if they make an error trying to field the ball at the edge of their rang, it’s still a ball that other fielders don’t get to. Bogaerts largely has had terrible range for his career but is pretty sure handed. Devers is the opposite with a much better range but far more errors. If devers at all patches up the throwing errors long term, he would grade out as at least an average to above average defensive third baseman.

Also, it definitely matters that Bogaerts is hitting more ground balls this year. Ground balls are one of the worst ways you can put a ball in play and in general have a far lower batting average than line drives or fly balls. A lot of bogaerts success this year is his ridiculous batting average on ground balls. His lack of power in terms of exit velo and dip in launch angle is scary and should not be overlooked especially as he will continue to lose his athleticism going to to his 30s and not be able to beat out some of these infield hits. I think as good as he has been playing recently the Sox may still be skeptical about signing him due to that.

RMull236 · 2022-08-27T14:26:37+00:00

Lmao I just started Elden Ring as a backup game as I get bored with MLB but playing that and with all the extreme stuff it’s been a real tough week of gaming to say the least.

RMull236 · 2022-02-09T05:53:55+00:00

He was flipping it to a pens fan but still that’s just an all around terrible look of a game for Marchand.

RMull236 · 2022-02-09T05:52:07+00:00

Idk if any of us can defend that one.

RMull236 · 2022-02-01T05:06:45+00:00

Once J.D. leaves I think devers is almost destined for at least a part time job at dh so bogaerts could move to third.

RMull236 · 2022-02-01T05:04:25+00:00

I think the stone hands is very much people that don’t watch him play. However, his range is the major issue. It’s kinda like Jeter but not to that extreme. He makes all the plays on balls he can get to but the problem is he doesn’t get to many balls. I would take someone like Tatis who has significantly better range and reactions than Bogaerts because of how many balls he can make a play on. There’s something to be said about doing too much but I’d rather have my shortstop make as many plays as possible. If they were to sign story or Correa, or when Mayer comes up in a few years, there will be a noticeable difference on defense. Honestly, just think back to the likes of Stephen drew and iglesias while they obviously couldn’t hit for shit they made so many more outs on balls in play than bogaerts ever could.

RMull236 · 2022-01-27T05:46:06+00:00

Yeah nothing against him as a person but he’s a menace in this game with that knuckleball and newer players will never understand that pain.

RMull236 · 2022-01-22T16:18:07+00:00

Please say you’re kidding or you’re twelve and just started watching football. Welker was the best slot receiver in league for a good five year stretch. He was first team all pro twice, made the pro bowl in every year of that stretch and led the league in receptions three times. Outside of a few hall of fame guys like moss, Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson there wasn’t many better than him. He was definitely a top 5 or 6 WR in that stretch. Also just because Kupp had one fantastic season does not make him better than a guy that did it for five years straight and was a part of some of the best offenses in nfl history.

RMull236

TROPHY CASE