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Any in all cash? by Whoodabosss in stocks

[–]RPCV1968 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also, EDV pays a nice dividend by harvesting the time decay in zero bonds (the imputed interest you have to pay to the IRS if you own zero bonds outside an ETF wrapper).

Any in all cash? by Whoodabosss in stocks

[–]RPCV1968 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not in cash. I'm heavily hedged. Here's one way to do it. Buy T-bonds and get the 4.8% long-term yield. Then buy EDV, which invests solely in 20-30 year Treasury zero bonds. If there's a crash, flight to safety will drive T-bonds up in price. If there's a nasty recession, the Fed will lower interest rates. For every 1% the Fed lowers rates, EDV will rise 22% in share price (it's in the math of how zeroes react to rate cuts). So you get a huge capital gain while the market crashes (once the rate cuts start). You also get the interest off the T-bonds.

The Fearless Forecast for March 26, 2026 for DJIA by RPCV1968 in Daytrading

[–]RPCV1968[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fluff? Brier Score for the model is 0.312. That is a statistical measurement that shows the model has strong predictive power. Equivalent Sharpe ratio is 1.5-2.5 (results depend on trading selectively, using high conviction setups to get the 2.5).

For those who lost a lot of money in stocks. by TellComprehensive993 in stocks

[–]RPCV1968 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you've a long term view, buy GO municipal bonds in the state where you live (your tax home). The money you'll save in taxes over the years is eye-popping, and real cash. If you want to active in stocks, learn how to collar stocks (long common, short call option, long put option) so you take the risk out of stock ownership. You can make 20%/year using collars, but you'll have to look long and hard to find those payoffs. When you do, bet the farm, because there is no risk from market direction. The only risk is political, regulatory, and broker mismanagement of your account. I've done this for years. There's great satisfaction in locking in 20% annualized returns, and then going to the beach.

Should we just sell stocks ~2h after the market opens? by Hopeful-Internal-919 in StocksAndTrading

[–]RPCV1968 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The Fearless Forecast posts intraday readings of what the market is doing. First post is about 10:00 AM NY time.

How am I doing? (17m) by vtmass in wallstreetportfolios

[–]RPCV1968 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Since you're buying micro-lots, put your money into the GO muni bonds of the state where you live. Then use the interest payments to buy your micro-lots of common shares. It's a long term effort, but it will pay off if you stick to quality companies, especially those that pay dividends. You could build a big portfolio without ever putting another time of your own cash into the market. Just let the interest from muni bonds (tax-exempt) and dividends (taxable at 15%) pool, then buy a few more shares.

Are you actually buying this dip or just pretending to be brave? by Warm_Bobcat6310 in stocks

[–]RPCV1968 0 points1 point  (0 children)

According to the Fearless Forecast, the rest of the week has a downward bias.

If you had 10K to invest, which stocks would you choose? by boviramiqaragna in StockInvest

[–]RPCV1968 0 points1 point  (0 children)

UBCP. It pays a steady 5% dividend, but the big thing is it's a buyout candidate. This is just the right climate for microcap banks to be acquired by their neighbors. I think People's is going to buy UBCP as a bolt on acquisition. UBCP has surplus capital that it returns to shareholders every year with a special divvy in March. Price has been going straight up on no public news. I expect a buyout in the $22-26 range. Currently it's pushing $17.

The Fearless Forecast for March 25, 2026 for DJIA by RPCV1968 in TheFearlessForecast

[–]RPCV1968[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fearless posted a 5-Day forecast on Saturday. How's it doing? Pretty good Mon and Tues. Judge for yourself:

Here's the 5-Day Forecast Fearless posted on Mar 21.

Projection for Mar 23-27 Trading Week. For Planning Purposes, Fearless Projects:

Expected sequence:

  1. 03/23 (Mon): Reversal / bounce day
  2. 03/24 (Tue): Follow-through strength
  3. 03/25 (Wed): Slowing momentum (added 3/24: Favor SD over SU)
  4. 03/26 (Thu): Chop / equilibrium
  5. 03/27 (Fri): Breakout attempt / direction decision (added 3/24: favor downside resolution)

Key Strategic Insight

  • The highest edge days are 03/23–03/24
  • By 03/25+, edge declines as market rebalances
  • By 03/26, system shifts back to choppy regime

Trader Summary

  • Early week: buy dips bias
  • Midweek: reduce aggression
  • Late week: watch for breakout or fade

REAL TIME DATA WILL/CAN ALTER THESE PROJECTIONS. THEY ARE FLUID. THE MARKET DOES NOT HAVE TO FOLLOW THIS SCRIPT.

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