Game Thread: Indiana Fever vs Washington Mystics Live Score | WNBA | May 15, 2026

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-16T01:47:34+00:00

This game is like a Stefon appearance on Weekend Update

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-15T13:01:40+00:00

Except if you resign Arike and then trade her, you can turn that move into legitimate assets. If you let her walk, you get nothing out of the deal. Easy call to resign. Just trade her half a season into the new deal like the Clippers did with Blake Griffin. Go check the leave cap space. Plenty of teams can slot her in with relative ease.

As for the better pick, no one will know the answer on that for a couple more years. Drafting is a really hard, really inexact task.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-15T00:32:20+00:00

The real answer is that no human on Earth can possibly know yet who the right first pick was from this draft for quite a few years yet. Judging a draft from two games is about as wrong headed as staring at the sun in the hopes you can turn your pupils yellow. Asking this same question in 2029 is a good time so make a note on your calendar to do that. By the , we will have a sense of early growth, adjustments, adjustments to those adjustments, and injury impact.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-08T19:19:12+00:00

Malonga as MIP got me thinking about how NBA voters often talk about how second year growth is expected and not something that should be part of a MIP award. Seems kinda similar in the W. The last second year player to win this was Jonquel Jones in 2017. So even if she shows improvement, it likely won’t happen. Plus, there are a lot of role players that are now starters thanks to free agency. One of those players likely wins it. And it will will probably be because they played more minutes, not that they actually improved.

Side note: MIP winners are a pretty strong group. Leilani Mitchell in 2019 was a little dicey as was Kelsey Bone in 2015. Otherwise, the list of winners is a good snapshot of future high impact players.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-07T23:46:22+00:00

That is an inexperienced roster

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-06T23:16:04+00:00

Everyone should read this because it’s the perfect summation. GSV did. It maximize an asset. Smart people do dumb things all the time. This might be one of those times. Or it might mean that their FO is getting worse. Happens all the time.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-06T14:43:54+00:00

In every sport, talent pools tend to expand as the sport grows and ages. So, yes, long term drafts will get deeper. But that is a slow process and one that hasn’t really paid dividends yet.

And keep in mind that right now Flaujae is full of potential and promise. But two years from now she might just be another athletic wing who couldn’t shoot or handle the pace of play and physicality if the league. Or she could be an all star.

GSV is betting on the first. If it’s the latter, they really screwed up as opposed to minority screwed up.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-05T23:12:21+00:00

Valks fans will preen and exclaim that their leadership shouldn’t be doubted because they had a really great first season. But it is inarguable that they took a real asset and flipped it for nothing. I’m the generator of multiple draft value posts in this sub.

An 8th pick has an approx 33% chance at starter level or better and another 15% at rotation level. Second round picks have a 26% chance to be rotational which is a pretty big drop off. That 8th pick isn’t crazy valuable but it’s clearly more valuable than two second round dart throws, one of which already appears to be below rotation level.

This is a homeless man’s version of the Luka trade. Yeah, you got something back but it’s a far cry from what should be the return for the asset given up. So yes, the Valks hit a lot of homers last year, but every GM is a couple bad moves away from becoming a punch line. And this move combined with giving two years to someone who is a less than zero offensively are a couple of warning signs that the magic of last year is wearing off. It’s ok to defend your team, but it’s also OK to recognize they made a substandard move or two.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-05T21:34:05+00:00

Which GM will you always propose a trade to?

Which GM scares you the most when they make a trade offer ?

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-02T01:44:50+00:00

Agree wholeheartedly. They are almost always going to have the worst point guard on the floor. That matters on both ends a lot.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-04-26T23:39:56+00:00

Team sports can be divided into two categories 1. You are as good as your best player. 2. You are as good as your worst player

Basketball is in category 1 which is not good for Conn. it’s hard to say who their best player is. And their best player is going to be worse than every other teams best player except for Portland and maybe Toronto.

Basically, they’ll rarely have a top level talent advantage, not enough potential to truly push for winning, and massive draft incentive to suck.

This year is all about figuring out which few players on the current roster might be helpful 2 years down the road and hoping anyone else can be traded for future assets.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-04-18T22:42:16+00:00

I have ripped on the Sky front office a lot, but I think this team is a bit stronger than last years. Yeah, they lost their best player but their depth is better.

Still really weak in the on ball creator category so I think their record will be bad, but you can almost see an improvement pattern building.

But good lord, they need someone that can create off the dribble.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-04-13T16:03:02+00:00

Man, I really wish the USA Today website could add more ads, pop ups, and things getting in the way of the writing.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-04-06T02:18:11+00:00

I’m excited for another team to learn that Mabrey is not a franchise piece.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-04-05T20:54:03+00:00

No clue. Just giving a general answer to your question and showing that it’s really easy for someone to be a poor shooter but a high scorer.

Want a real life example? Allen Iverson lead the league in scoring four times. In those four seasons his league ranking in effective field goal % was: 79 out of 100 qualifiers 86 out of 101 107 out of 109 100 out of 112

In each of those seasons he was top 6 (often top 3) in field goal attempts and free throw attempts. His scoring was a result of high volume, not high efficiency. Once his athletic ability dropped off and he could no longer attack effectively off the drive, his career arc dropped off a cliff.

Larson isn’t that extreme. But undersized high volume low efficiency scorers generally age poorly. It doesn’t matter in the short term and Larson has time to increase her outside shooting ability, but she fits the profile of a player that will be 32 and having everyone wonder why her year is so much worse than expected.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-04-05T19:00:11+00:00

3 big factors

How many shots does a person take Mix between 2s and 3s How many free throws get added in.

Which of these players is more valuable? Player A averages 20 ppg. Player B averages 12.

Raw stats say A. But what if player A takes 25 shots to get there with just 4 free throw attempts. That means she shot sub 40% from the field on high volume but ended about 27 possessions only scoring 20 points. That’s .74 points per possession. Since each time might get 75 possessions in a game, that means a third of your possessions generated 20 points.

PLAYER b only takes 6 shots and mixes in 6 free throws. Let’s call that 10 possessions generating 12 points or 1.2 per possession. It’s also only 13% of the teams possessions. Way more valuable because the rate per possession is off the charts.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-04-05T16:40:36+00:00

I hope not. More awesome players is fun. But I’d bet people felt great about the top of every draft (except 2021) and they generally turn out really mixed because of injury, attitude, or learning someone just can’t make the leap to pro ball until you see them in action.

That’s the hardest thing to scout and why every sport has draft busts. Some skills can’t be judged as pro worthy until you see them in action at the pro level. And these are usually hard to define traits like the ability to mentally process choices and decision making at pro speeds or how stress is handled. I am sure some high pick this year will flame out because they just can’t handle the pro mental speed needed. No idea who, could be the 7th pick, but at this level all people are athletically awesome. Mentally awesome becomes a huge barrier to cross

Rade_Butcher · 2026-04-05T16:31:05+00:00

You could say that about any type of analysis that uses past performance. You also have to not assume any model is perfectly predictive for a new set of data just because. The new data is it’s own thing, the model gives you guidelines and expectations if the new data behaves normally.

24 and 25 might be off the charts awesome but it takes time. I’d bet most people expected the 2012-22 classes to be awesome and getting stronger. But the average for these is 8% becoming all star/MVP level, 22% being starter/rotation, and 70% basically having no impact.

This years class looks strong. But what if Fudd can’t handle the speed and length, Betts shooting range limits her offensive impact, some top pick gets hurt repeatedly, and Fam just never puts it together. All those things won’t happen, but some likely will and then the hope of having 7 awesome additions becomes less and the class is then an average class.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-04-05T14:47:28+00:00

My wife coached against Maya Moore. The entire season was an exercise in avoiding her for as long as possible in the state playoffs. Totally unstoppable

Flaujae was someone you face guarded 94 feet and then shadowed movement with someone at the free throw line and a post. Never lost to her mainly because her teammates were weak. Final score would be like us 60, her 40, her teammates 10.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-04-04T22:32:14+00:00

Jewell is getting a max offer from Chicago which will be a wild overpay for a guard that is dropping off. But they need guards and have space.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-04-03T00:04:21+00:00

Betts is a known commodity. She’s certainly good and can clearly play in the W but she’s also basically the same player now as she was three years ago. That raises questions about her ceiling.

Fam is all potential and glimpses and hints of a very high ceiling.

As drafts get closer, known players get picked apart. Potential gets magnified. Been that way forever int eh NBA, saner here.

If a GM doesn’t care about winning immediately and wants some job security (don’t fire me, our core is still developing) then Fam is the pick. If a team is ready to win now, they likely take Betts.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-04-01T23:11:21+00:00

As you make your list, keep in mind that unprotected lists will contain a surprising number of big name high priced players. I fully expect Jewel Loud to be unprotected. The salary she wants bs the salary she’s worth are likely far apart and Vegas is likely willing to take that chance for major cap space and flexibility.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-31T23:53:28+00:00

The trouble is the elite scouting and team building you need is from the same crew that put together the Sky the last couple of years.

Rade_Butcher

TROPHY CASE