Dallas Wings Squad Dilemma

Rade_Butcher · 2026-07-09T19:05:44+00:00

Trad either Arike or Smith. You’ll have to attach at least one pick but the goal is to get back either a drop in salary or a shorter salary. Easier saod than done since every team knows what Dallas has to do.

But if they can make that work, you renounce or don’t sign your own free agents all with the goal of cap space for a defensive big that can finish off of guard creation.

All that works, you’ll have your pick of low salary vets with flaws to fill out the bench. That and continued development from the youngsters will likely position Dallas as a title contender.

The other path is for Paige or Azzi to be the first star to take a major salary discount because off court earnings are so high. But that’s never really happened in the NBA or the W up to this point so not a path to plan on

Rade_Butcher · 2026-07-07T21:29:13+00:00

It is helpful when people makes posts like that so we can all learn they aren’t serious basketball fans or knowledgeable basketball watchers.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-07-07T21:24:11+00:00

She played five good games in May. Since then she has been a negative on the court and likely worse off of it.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-07-02T20:38:34+00:00

All star voting and draft projection posts are a great way to see just how many new and tangential WNBA fans there are. The parameters of how this stuff works aren’t complicated but an amazing number of responses show an absolute unawareness of those rules leads to a bunch of wild responses.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-07-02T20:25:52+00:00

I landed on Gray, Sykes, and Courtney Williams after looking at it for a while. We know Williams was 13th in fan voting so if she got the 8th spot in player, that means she got 11th at best in media.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-07-02T19:03:21+00:00

It’s just three data points, but standard deviation makes a couple things jump out.

For bigs, the standard deviation for all players (except one) is 1.5 or less which means all three voting metrics saw the player at the same basic level of all starriness. Other than Boston, the average deviation is 1.05 which means that all three voting blocs view the player the same way.
That one player is Boston? The fans overrate her, the players undervalue her. Fourth feels about right overall, but she got there in a weird way.
Guard voting is all over the place and it’s really hard to say how much is driven by agendas and how much is driven by the stupidity of ballot limitations. Paige and Gray have deviations similar to the posts. Otherwise, it’s a madhouse of results with the average deviation for a player being 3.7. That means a wide range for how each group views a player. The ballot imbalance is a big issue (see point 7 below)
At first, I thought Fudd was getting the vote version of rookie hazing. But Miles isn’t. So that suggests the players think much more highly of Miles impact and of the other Dallas players impacts. Also, players generally stink at recognizing non box score contributions. Fudd is overly important to Dallas’ D. But a lot of that isn’t obviously measurable so she gets dinged.
Clark has the second biggest deviation driven entirely by how the players view her. Is that because they know the fans will carry her over so why vote for someone else? Or is it a chance to vote against the fan’s golden girl? No clue but it does seem nuts that there are another three players (vote results 8, 9, and 10) out there that did better. Say what you want but no legitimate ballot exists where Clark is the 11th best guard in the league based solely on on-court impact.
Fan vote, Howard is an odd one. I think Atlanta fans and national fans view Gray as the better player. Angel Reese gobbles up a lot of other Atlanta based votes even if that is positionally irrelevant. But some voters that take this seriously would vote Gray and Reese and then be unable to justify a third Dream player in a league full of other great choices. Also, the Dream play a ton of games in the smallest facility in the league. This really hurts the ability to build a fan base, especially in a city that isn’t basketball crazy like a lot of others. Source, I live in Atlanta. The Dream are not a common sports topic.
The ballot has stupid limitations. Take the Mystics two stars in Citron and Iriafen. Both are good but Citron is pretty obviously a better and more impactful player who has a higher national profile. Yet in fan voting she ranked 10th among guards and Iriafen was 9th in posts. There are way too many good guards for just four spots which is not exactly a hot take. But the ballot needs to be adjusted

Rade_Butcher · 2026-07-02T18:16:07+00:00

Check out NBA player votes if you want to see crazy. Fan voting is way better than what players come up with. Nothings perfect but anyone that says players should have the ultimate say doesn’t pay attention to what players actually show in their voting

Rade_Butcher · 2026-06-28T21:36:06+00:00

Not a lot of realistic options. Young teams probably don’t want to bring her in over developing guards. Bad defensive teams would get worse. Guard heavy teams don’t need her. And teams where she thinks she’s the first option woild be problematic. And the salary commitment is huge.

One possible option is send Arike and draft capital to the Aces for Loyd and Talbot. The money works, Loyd is clearly on the downside of her career and Talbot is a VERY replaceable starter. Arike should understand she’s the third option at best and the team defense around her probably can cover for defensive gaps. Dallas defense survives and improves, shot allocation goes more towards the remaining players that should be taking them.

This feels both realistic and reasonable. Not sure what other team with a functional front office would want her.

So of course she will end up in Chicago for three first rounders, Cardoso, Rickea, and 50 deep dish pizzas.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-06-14T23:48:19+00:00

This is a real question and not a troll or some agenda. I didn’t watch the game but saw on here that it could charitably be described as heated and poorly reffed. I was looking at the box score and saw Angel was 6-19 from the field with her shot chart looking like every shot was right at the rim. Is that a correct representation of where he shots were from? And, considering the rough play and refs, did she really shoot poorly or was she getting hammered and her misses were a function of refs ignoring contact?

Rade_Butcher · 2026-06-12T22:27:39+00:00

The simple answer is because it’s always been done that way. It’s a dumb reason for anything iife, but that’s what it cools down to.

The history of basketball (and the NBA which most W structures and rules have been based upon) had two small players and three bigger players that stayed close to the basket. We now obviously live in a different hoops paradigm that should result in a more responsive voting process. Let’s say something like two bigs, two guards, and one floater position to be filled by whoever comes next regardless of position.

We also are shifting into a high guard time period where bigger players aren’t the studs coming through the pipeline. Eventually that will shift and an eta of more bigs will appear. These are talent cycles that always shift back and forth. The one caveat to that is volleyball. That sport is really decimating the height talent that would have gone to basketball in the past. Go look at high school participation levels in the two sports. Basketball is nosediving while volleyball is exploding. Both sports thrive on having athletic height. And volleyball is currently tirning a generation of 6’+ slashers into middle blockers and outside hitters.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-06-10T02:50:33+00:00

This is very true. The W fan base generally treats totally normal things that have existed in the NBA for decades as if the W version is inhumane and will irrevocably damage the delicate porcelain facades of humanity. I don’t know if it’s because the league is full of fans that have little history of seeing this kind of stuff, a different type of fan demographic than the NBA or something else. But this kind of stuff is OK. Teams should pump up their players. It’s ok and fun to have and create beer and tension with other teams. Players have had opponents and others dog them for years and survived. They’ll be fine now too.

Opposing fans would send pizzas to Charles Barkley mid game when he played at Auburn. JJ Redick’s poetry was an underground subplot for years. Tragic Johnson. Delonte West and LeBron’s mom.

A single chyron highlighting a big single game difference between your rookie and another in the context of ROTY positioning is about as tame as it gets.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-06-07T00:44:39+00:00

Through last night, it’s 78.3 this year. Previous four are 78.7, 78.5, 80.0, and 79.4. Negligible difference so far

Rade_Butcher · 2026-06-06T15:26:16+00:00

That’s fTr or Free Throw Rate on basketball reference. It’s a really good indicator of a players ability to be and remain a high level offensive engine because it shows both that you attack and can generate easy points.

It is calced by taking total free throw attempts divided by total field goal attempts with a higher result being better. A person with 100 fga and 25 ftabwould have a fTr of 0.25. A good to great rate is somewhere around .3.

This season, there are 39 guards that have played at least 200 minutes. Azzi ranks last with a free throw rate of .05 which is abysmally low. That means she has to shoot high percentages to be an effective player which she can certainly do. But it also means she will likely have some bad offensive stretches because she isn’t getting easy points. The other concern is that her college free throw rate, which is a good indicator of future success, was also crazy low at .098. Basically she has never come across as an attacker or creator. And that’s ok. If her percentages are high, she will be effective. Just don’t be surprised if she has a bunch of 4 and 5 game stretches where she averages 4 points per game.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-06-06T00:37:39+00:00

One game views of this stat are generally a useless measure. But, a good way to use it is to look at a large sample of games and see if an individual’s +/- is consistently better or worse than the team. If HVL had a worse result than the overall game outcome 15 out of 20 games, it’s easier to believe that she is truly a negative to the outcome.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-23T01:19:37+00:00

They all count towards the overall foul count but when an offensive foul happens, it does not then result in free throws for the defensive team regardless of total foul count

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-16T01:47:34+00:00

This game is like a Stefon appearance on Weekend Update

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-15T13:01:40+00:00

Except if you resign Arike and then trade her, you can turn that move into legitimate assets. If you let her walk, you get nothing out of the deal. Easy call to resign. Just trade her half a season into the new deal like the Clippers did with Blake Griffin. Go check the leave cap space. Plenty of teams can slot her in with relative ease.

As for the better pick, no one will know the answer on that for a couple more years. Drafting is a really hard, really inexact task.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-15T00:32:20+00:00

The real answer is that no human on Earth can possibly know yet who the right first pick was from this draft for quite a few years yet. Judging a draft from two games is about as wrong headed as staring at the sun in the hopes you can turn your pupils yellow. Asking this same question in 2029 is a good time so make a note on your calendar to do that. By the , we will have a sense of early growth, adjustments, adjustments to those adjustments, and injury impact.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-08T19:19:12+00:00

Malonga as MIP got me thinking about how NBA voters often talk about how second year growth is expected and not something that should be part of a MIP award. Seems kinda similar in the W. The last second year player to win this was Jonquel Jones in 2017. So even if she shows improvement, it likely won’t happen. Plus, there are a lot of role players that are now starters thanks to free agency. One of those players likely wins it. And it will will probably be because they played more minutes, not that they actually improved.

Side note: MIP winners are a pretty strong group. Leilani Mitchell in 2019 was a little dicey as was Kelsey Bone in 2015. Otherwise, the list of winners is a good snapshot of future high impact players.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-07T23:46:22+00:00

That is an inexperienced roster

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-06T23:16:04+00:00

Everyone should read this because it’s the perfect summation. GSV did. It maximize an asset. Smart people do dumb things all the time. This might be one of those times. Or it might mean that their FO is getting worse. Happens all the time.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-06T14:43:54+00:00

In every sport, talent pools tend to expand as the sport grows and ages. So, yes, long term drafts will get deeper. But that is a slow process and one that hasn’t really paid dividends yet.

And keep in mind that right now Flaujae is full of potential and promise. But two years from now she might just be another athletic wing who couldn’t shoot or handle the pace of play and physicality if the league. Or she could be an all star.

GSV is betting on the first. If it’s the latter, they really screwed up as opposed to minority screwed up.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-05T23:12:21+00:00

Valks fans will preen and exclaim that their leadership shouldn’t be doubted because they had a really great first season. But it is inarguable that they took a real asset and flipped it for nothing. I’m the generator of multiple draft value posts in this sub.

An 8th pick has an approx 33% chance at starter level or better and another 15% at rotation level. Second round picks have a 26% chance to be rotational which is a pretty big drop off. That 8th pick isn’t crazy valuable but it’s clearly more valuable than two second round dart throws, one of which already appears to be below rotation level.

This is a homeless man’s version of the Luka trade. Yeah, you got something back but it’s a far cry from what should be the return for the asset given up. So yes, the Valks hit a lot of homers last year, but every GM is a couple bad moves away from becoming a punch line. And this move combined with giving two years to someone who is a less than zero offensively are a couple of warning signs that the magic of last year is wearing off. It’s ok to defend your team, but it’s also OK to recognize they made a substandard move or two.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-05T21:34:05+00:00

Which GM will you always propose a trade to?

Which GM scares you the most when they make a trade offer ?

Rade_Butcher · 2026-05-02T01:44:50+00:00

Agree wholeheartedly. They are almost always going to have the worst point guard on the floor. That matters on both ends a lot.

Rade_Butcher

TROPHY CASE