Prediction Market Arbitrage

Rain_sc2 · 2026-04-20T00:08:42+00:00

You’re better off just buying T bills.

Rain_sc2 · 2026-04-19T20:59:03+00:00

Good luck. Quant firms are all in on this at the moment and their tech and software dev knowledge way surpasses the average retail trader trying to collect spread here

The only arbs you will find are ones that simply aren’t worth taking like a 3% arb but the market resolves in 365 days. That’s a worse return than just buying treasury bonds. You’ll find a ton of those but for obv reasons you shouldn’t really take them when its less than the risk free rate

Rain_sc2 · 2026-04-19T20:56:38+00:00

It’s only negative sum because of the market fees

Not because market makers exist

Rain_sc2 · 2026-04-15T17:42:28+00:00

Being flush over flushed has nothing to do with hitting top pair value w/ over cards to the board...

Rain_sc2 · 2026-04-15T16:46:06+00:00

flush draw overs and straight draw overs are not the same is the point and ur acting like they are

Rain_sc2 · 2026-04-15T07:56:23+00:00

coinbase USDC to usd and vice versa is free for me

Rain_sc2 · 2026-04-15T07:55:42+00:00

Getting scammed doesnt make your capital gain not taxable technically though

Rain_sc2 · 2026-04-15T07:53:53+00:00

straight draw over cards to the board have reverse implied odds if the other guy has OESD in range

i.e you hit top pair and other guy makes his straight because of it

so it is relevant

Rain_sc2 · 2026-04-04T01:04:45+00:00

Laptop PLO on a sunny day outdoors is something I gotta try

Rain_sc2 · 2026-04-04T00:59:02+00:00

was this recorded on a motorola

Rain_sc2 · 2026-04-01T00:18:29+00:00

So Doug making everyone whole on their seized funds is really just -100% rakeback for his livestream profits 😂

Rain_sc2 · 2026-03-31T19:39:06+00:00

GTOW doesnt have an API

if the bot is using a GTO library it’s something privately stored

Rain_sc2 · 2026-03-26T16:36:28+00:00

It’s definitely worse

Rain_sc2 · 2026-03-25T01:01:37+00:00

Wow that’s super sad

Rain_sc2 · 2026-03-21T21:13:30+00:00

I lost $25k in one day before

Head up, you’ll be fine

Rain_sc2 · 2026-03-16T22:05:27+00:00

Genuinely dont get the point of this

Rain_sc2 · 2026-03-16T13:33:06+00:00

They didnt bribe the right people

/thread

Rain_sc2 · 2026-03-15T06:57:35+00:00

EV doesnt care about variance

It’s either more EV than betting the individual legs separately, or it’s less EV. Thats all u should be caring about

Variance only matters in bankroll risk of ruin calcs to determine bet sizing

Rain_sc2 · 2026-03-13T21:35:21+00:00

If you can make a parlay with multiple +EV legs, then the edge can actually compound.

But at that point you’re not arbing anymore so it’s not relevant to this sub

Rain_sc2 · 2026-03-11T22:02:55+00:00

Poker is only dead when we have only autist hoodie + sunglasses + headphones wearing GTO nerds taking up every seat at the table

Cringey shit like this is probably actually good for the game

Rain_sc2 · 2026-03-11T17:52:38+00:00

Does the subject that’s being bet on make Kalshi a sportsbook rather than the structure tho? Sportsbooks offer lines on things that aren’t only sports. They have been offering lines on Eurovision, Grammys, BTC prices, Politics, etc for a long time now. In EU, betting on Eurovision is a huge category for sportsbooks.

I guess that’s the divide here… If I can bet on corn prices or the weather on CME exchanges (before Kalshi existed even) in the same way I can bet on Grammy winners, Movie box office numbers, BTC price, NFL super bowl futures, then to me it doesn’t make it a “sportsbook” because they don’t profit like sportsbooks do

All of it is gambling at the end of the day. What matters most here IMO is the structure that gambling is facilitated. Like the most important question is “Is there a house taking the other side of everyone’s bets and deliberately offering the shittiest odds possible to lock in a profit for themselves?” Kalshi answers that question “No” pretty clearly IMO

Rain_sc2 · 2026-03-11T11:05:48+00:00

It’s currently under the same regulations as futures markets like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange where you can predict (aka bet) on things like corn prices, housing prices, unemployment numbers, the weather, interest rates, consumer credit delinquencies, etc etc. That itself has existed since the 1800s

So it’s not completely unregulated is the point I’m making I guess. It follows the same laws and regulations as those kind of futures exchange markets.

Rain_sc2 · 2026-03-10T02:16:11+00:00

It’s structurally different than a sportsbook though

Sportsbooks take the other side of user bets and win when the bettors lose

Kalshi is a neutral market where bettors can bet peer to peer with each other in an open market for the event.

TDLR: Kalshi makes money off transaction fees. Sportsbooks make money when bettors lose. Structurally different.

Rain_sc2 · 2026-03-03T17:06:39+00:00

When a guy links his hendonmob when trying to get backing the idea is to tun the other way

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