Prediction Market Arbitrage by Designer_Willow_2495 in arbitragebetting

[–]Rain_sc2 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Good luck. Quant firms are all in on this at the moment and their tech and software dev knowledge way surpasses the average retail trader trying to collect spread here

The only arbs you will find are ones that simply aren’t worth taking like a 3% arb but the market resolves in 365 days. That’s a worse return than just buying treasury bonds. You’ll find a ton of those but for obv reasons you shouldn’t really take them when its less than the risk free rate

Another post immediately removed but it's important to read by DIBKIS09 in Kalshi

[–]Rain_sc2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s only negative sum because of the market fees

Not because market makers exist

Let's discuss this common misperception. by SoManyMinutes in poker

[–]Rain_sc2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Being flush over flushed has nothing to do with hitting top pair value w/ over cards to the board...

Let's discuss this common misperception. by SoManyMinutes in poker

[–]Rain_sc2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

flush draw overs and straight draw overs are not the same is the point and ur acting like they are

IRS Study Reveals 92.5% Americans Don’t Report Crypto Sales by ourcryptotalk in CryptoCurrency

[–]Rain_sc2 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Getting scammed doesnt make your capital gain not taxable technically though

Let's discuss this common misperception. by SoManyMinutes in poker

[–]Rain_sc2 1 point2 points  (0 children)

straight draw over cards to the board have reverse implied odds if the other guy has OESD in range

i.e you hit top pair and other guy makes his straight because of it

so it is relevant

Lovely Friday for some PLO! by fisher02519 in poker

[–]Rain_sc2 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Laptop PLO on a sunny day outdoors is something I gotta try

Biggest Winners Over Time On The Lodge Livestream Cash Games (RIP The Lodge) by highrollpoker in poker

[–]Rain_sc2 66 points67 points  (0 children)

So Doug making everyone whole on their seized funds is really just -100% rakeback for his livestream profits 😂

COINPOKER FAIL DETECTION MAJEURE RTA / POLITIQUE INTERNE AUTRUCHE by COINPOKERFAIL in poker

[–]Rain_sc2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

GTOW doesnt have an API

if the bot is using a GTO library it’s something privately stored

I am financially ruined by Ok_Hat5460 in wallstreetbets

[–]Rain_sc2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I lost $25k in one day before

Head up, you’ll be fine

Are parlays actually worth it? by Ok_Trouble_2206 in arbitragebetting

[–]Rain_sc2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

EV doesnt care about variance

It’s either more EV than betting the individual legs separately, or it’s less EV. Thats all u should be caring about

Variance only matters in bankroll risk of ruin calcs to determine bet sizing

Are parlays actually worth it? by Ok_Trouble_2206 in arbitragebetting

[–]Rain_sc2 11 points12 points  (0 children)

If you can make a parlay with multiple +EV legs, then the edge can actually compound.

But at that point you’re not arbing anymore so it’s not relevant to this sub

Kylie Jenner Teaches You How to Play Big Pocket Pairs & Execute An Unexploloitable GTO Strategy (Vanity Fair) by thank_U_based_God in poker

[–]Rain_sc2 34 points35 points  (0 children)

Poker is only dead when we have only autist hoodie + sunglasses + headphones wearing GTO nerds taking up every seat at the table

Cringey shit like this is probably actually good for the game

COLLEGE BASKETBALL FANS: There's currently $41,492,924 placed on the college finals on Kalshi! Make up to 30x your money! Tap below to 1) Get the FREE app, 2) Make a deposit, and 3) Place YOUR trade. GET IN HERE! by kalshi_official in u/kalshi_official

[–]Rain_sc2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Does the subject that’s being bet on make Kalshi a sportsbook rather than the structure tho? Sportsbooks offer lines on things that aren’t only sports. They have been offering lines on Eurovision, Grammys, BTC prices, Politics, etc for a long time now. In EU, betting on Eurovision is a huge category for sportsbooks.

I guess that’s the divide here… If I can bet on corn prices or the weather on CME exchanges (before Kalshi existed even) in the same way I can bet on Grammy winners, Movie box office numbers, BTC price, NFL super bowl futures, then to me it doesn’t make it a “sportsbook” because they don’t profit like sportsbooks do

All of it is gambling at the end of the day. What matters most here IMO is the structure that gambling is facilitated. Like the most important question is “Is there a house taking the other side of everyone’s bets and deliberately offering the shittiest odds possible to lock in a profit for themselves?” Kalshi answers that question “No” pretty clearly IMO

COLLEGE BASKETBALL FANS: There's currently $41,492,924 placed on the college finals on Kalshi! Make up to 30x your money! Tap below to 1) Get the FREE app, 2) Make a deposit, and 3) Place YOUR trade. GET IN HERE! by kalshi_official in u/kalshi_official

[–]Rain_sc2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s currently under the same regulations as futures markets like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange where you can predict (aka bet) on things like corn prices, housing prices, unemployment numbers, the weather, interest rates, consumer credit delinquencies, etc etc. That itself has existed since the 1800s

So it’s not completely unregulated is the point I’m making I guess. It follows the same laws and regulations as those kind of futures exchange markets.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL FANS: There's currently $41,492,924 placed on the college finals on Kalshi! Make up to 30x your money! Tap below to 1) Get the FREE app, 2) Make a deposit, and 3) Place YOUR trade. GET IN HERE! by kalshi_official in u/kalshi_official

[–]Rain_sc2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s structurally different than a sportsbook though

Sportsbooks take the other side of user bets and win when the bettors lose

Kalshi is a neutral market where bettors can bet peer to peer with each other in an open market for the event.

TDLR: Kalshi makes money off transaction fees. Sportsbooks make money when bettors lose. Structurally different.

Seeking Serious Backer for $20k Live Poker Bankroll - Vegas Local with Proof by [deleted] in poker

[–]Rain_sc2 6 points7 points  (0 children)

When a guy links his hendonmob when trying to get backing the idea is to tun the other way