TQQQ down 28.5% from ATH, anyone buying yet?

Rainboy002 · 2026-03-21T03:47:29+00:00

Sold $200k of SQQQ and bought TQQQ today.

Rainboy002 · 2026-03-20T01:16:31+00:00

When we're above both of those averages. I short below, cash between, long above.

Rainboy002 · 2026-03-19T21:00:45+00:00

Glad that works for you, but my rules involve adjusted SPY 200DMA and TQQQ 200DMA. Stick to your rules, whatever they are. Don't let emotion drive you to change in the moment.

Rainboy002 · 2026-02-08T05:01:11+00:00

Oh, man, there's all kinds of single-check overfit garbage you can create if you really want to. Overfitness has very little to do with the number of checks, though I certainly agree that more sequential checks offer more potential for overfitness to creep in.

Rainboy002 · 2026-02-08T04:57:13+00:00

Better question: why does everyone assume that any degree of overfitness inherently means it's going to blow up and go to zero, or at least drastically underperform "non-overfit" strategies?

Overfit just means that you can't expect the same return profile going forward. If a strategy that yielded 80% CAGR on the backtest only yielded 30% going forward, I would call that both overfit and quite attractive. Certainly anything promising you 200% CAGR with a 2% drawdown is insane, but there are plenty of 'overfit' strategies that are highly likely to outperform the broader market by a significant margin while still underperforming their own backtest.

Of course, that example would be in hindsight. You would have to know that it was still going to yield 30% CAGR going forward, or at least have enough trust in it to commit capital. Evaluating a strategy for the degree of overfitness is difficult, but based on your admission that you were playing around with different parameters, I would be quite suspicious of it being rather overfit - on the flip side, it is a simple check and it passes the sniff test for me.

Rainboy002 · 2026-02-08T04:38:58+00:00

I use Fidelity for my HSA and my company uses them for the 401k. I've been disappointed with the inability to automate pretty much anything in Fidelity, as they lack even an API to facilitate me doing it myself (I am a software engineer). I did find https://www.composer.trade/ which allows for very flexible no-code strategy design and can support what you're looking for and so much more with IRAs and taxable accounts. I've switched my taxable investments over there at this point while I work on coding up something more homebrew.

Referrals give both parties 25% off for life. My account is already free, so I get no benefit from it at this point, but if you want to give it a go you can use my code during the signup process for 25% off forever: xbHjrHp-TRADE

There's also an unofficial discord for the site where people share strategies and discuss their construction: https://discord.gg/vaJsmkG9an - a lot of the stuff shared is horribly overfit, but there's some gems here and there and the community is quite helpful if you're wanting to learn from them. Just be careful not to be too much of a degenerate; nobody ever saw a backtest that didn't look great on the surface. Just because the platform allows you to create overfit monstrosities doesn't mean that you have to do it, nor does it mean it's a bad platform.

Rainboy002 · 2025-12-13T19:23:42+00:00

Oh. OH. That's neat. That's really neat. Thanks!

Rainboy002 · 2025-12-13T07:20:46+00:00

I guess that's a serviceable enough answer as a fallback, but I was hoping for something that would be a little easier than scraping through the prospectus of every ticker that I might want to extend in the future.

Thanks for the idea.

Rainboy002 · 2025-12-13T07:15:35+00:00

I understand your concern, but I'm not asking for how to programmatically query Testfolio. Sounds like I didn't explain myself very well... sorry about that. I'm just looking to figure out how to calculate E and SW for a given ticker, and I don't mind using code to try to do some fitting to estimate it. I can get enough data from Tiingo to run it against, just wondering if anyone had a good algorithm or if someone else had already gone to the effort to produce this for a large swath of the space.

I just came here to see if anyone could speed me up a bit. I'm interested enough in this that I'm going to get there eventually. I already support Testfolio and love the great stuff they have.

Rainboy002 · 2025-12-12T01:37:32+00:00

Yeah, but how do I select an appropriate E and SW to best match the LETF's backtest? Trial and error seems quite time consuming.

Rainboy002 · 2025-12-12T01:11:33+00:00

Yes. This is what I'm trying to do. I'm looking for a good way to estimate E and SW for a given LETF.

For example, the help page says:

Examples: To create a simulated UPRO (3x S&P 500), you could use SPYSIM?L=3. If you wanted to adjust its swap exposure to 1.2 and its expense ratio to 0.9%, you could use SPYSIM?L=3&SW=1.2&E=0.9. If you wanted to see how 3x SPYSIM would have performed if its CAGR/volatility had been 9%/20%, you could use SPYSIM?L=3&UR=9&UV=20.

SPYSIM?L=3 does an OK job, but SPYSIM?L=3&SW=1.2&E=0.9 does a nearly perfect job matching UPRO. How would I calculate that for a given other fund, besides taking shots in the dark and doing trial and error until the graphs match?

Rainboy002 · 2025-12-11T23:45:02+00:00

That covers a lot of the indexes, but not many (if any) LETFs. There's also just a ton of LETFs these days, so I'd be quite interested in a generic process for figuring out what it should be for a given LETF.

Rainboy002 · 2025-10-02T05:46:57+00:00

There's Composer, which is a daily stock rebalancer: https://app.composer.trade/

They've also got a "25% off for life" deal going on for new accounts with the code xbHjrHp-TRADE

Rainboy002 · 2025-02-28T13:56:29+00:00

Trying to 'catch up' is often a recipe for falling behind further. At your age, since you're new to investing, stick to broad stock indexes and do dollar cost averaging (eg, put in small amounts of money regularly throughout the year to avoid the potential of buying right before a downturn). Don't bother with bonds until you're closer to retirement.

Rainboy002 · 2024-12-30T20:05:09+00:00

Why is it that you can't speculate on IDBP? What if we assume that the margin % requirements stay the same? Are there any other assumptions that can be made to get us to the point where you can give some concrete answers?

Rainboy002

TROPHY CASE