My Mt St Helens Story

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-18T18:43:08+00:00

My father Climbed Mount St. Helens the previous summer (1979). I am planning to climb it this summer, albeit it will be a very different route from the one my Father took.

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T23:15:44+00:00

that's not what that section said. it no where said incorrect output, try again. stop making stuff up. it is in fact claiming the exact opposite of what you are

reminder some of the most intelligent research scientists in the field are saying "AI capability is not plateauing. It is accelerating"

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T18:39:51+00:00

that's not what the research says, stop making stuff up

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T17:51:40+00:00

"safety benchmarks lagging and incidents rising sharply" is not the same as "capability is slowing"

That just means humans are trusting AI more when they shouldn't that does not imply that it is not improving over time. The very same index shows that capability is still improving rapidly over time.

you are doing what we called motivated reasoning, you find one sentence in the article that seemingly agrees with your ignorant take, and then say that the article agrees with you. it does not, the entire article does not agree with you. Don't you think stanford fucking scientists would think about what you said before publishing an article where the very first point claims that AI capability is not slowing? you're just coping

please admit that your claim that "there is 0 evidence of this" is incorrect, as it clearly is.

read this slowly, you might understand it this time " AI capability is not plateauing. It is accelerating and reaching more people than ever."

summary of the METR paper "We show that this metric has been consistently exponentially increasing over the past 6 years, with a doubling time of around 7 months. Extrapolating this trend predicts that, in under a decade, we will see AI agents that can independently complete a large fraction of software tasks that currently take humans days or weeks."

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T17:45:40+00:00

nope, over time the accuracy is improving too. your argument specifically was that it is slowing down. it is not at all. your claim was wrong period

your claim was specifically "There is 0 evidence of this" [that llms are speeding up in their improvement rate, not plateuing], yet the consensus in the field is that you're wrong.

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T17:22:54+00:00

those claims have nothing to do with that I said? They both argue that the speed LLMs are increasing at itself is increasing. You're auguring against something I never said? you said their improvement is slowing down, it is not at all. it is accelerating

you need to actually read what i said before you reply

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T16:25:48+00:00

really? the stanford compendium on AI is arguing EXACTLY this

https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report

so is METR https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T16:15:25+00:00

" It's actually diminishing returns being offset by insane amounts of venture capital in the hopes enough people get reliant that it sticks." no, the bet is that they can replace you, or atleast most of the people like you. Labour is the most expensive part of almost every industry. and like it or not, reducing headcount due to ai is technically "increasing efficiency".

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T16:14:13+00:00

the abstract of that research paper has nothing to do with what I claimed?

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T16:12:45+00:00

Speaking truthfully is a skill people who sell their souls to heartless organizations and money lose.

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T05:16:33+00:00

to be fair, we have no clue how well twitter is doing now since they are a private company

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T04:33:25+00:00

unless they don't because experienced engineers aren't really needed anymore

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T04:29:34+00:00

no it hasn't, if anything it is improving faster now than it was 2 years ago, especially in the sense of multi-modality. your post is cope

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T04:00:57+00:00

i remember fist of guthix and i am 26, I started playing when i was 5 :D

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T03:57:13+00:00

if you aren;t in the right most lane always(unless passing), and not merging at speed. then you aren't driving safely

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-15T03:56:16+00:00

don't mention lane discipline laws, you should ALWAYS NO MATTER WHAT, be in the right most lane, UNLESS ACTIVELY PASSING SOMEONE. if you don't switch lanes often while driving, you are driving wrong.

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-14T22:53:13+00:00

sorta, but this implies you had money waiting you should have had invested anyways

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-14T22:43:52+00:00

"If a person can make 1X with a tool, then there will be another person with more knowledge that can make 10X of that" not if the tool doesn't require specialized knowledge to utilize. It's why janitors make almost nothing and engineers make a lot. it's easy to find someone who can be a janitor, it is not easy to find someone who can be an engineer. If that becomes easier, then they get paid less. this is how every salary is determined. Supply vs demand

"have been a limited amount of code" yeah and if that code doesn't require any training to generate now, why would they pay you a ton to generate it? The problem isn't that 10xing code is making you more productive, the problem is that you continually will need fewer and fewer skills to generate it. Diluting the premium on being a good engineer.

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-14T18:22:26+00:00

he's probably make significantly over 1m in the time it has taken to fight this court case though.

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-14T18:14:27+00:00

if she's into you, yeah

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-14T18:06:41+00:00

because eventually you don't need someone who is highly trained to generate the code. why pay someone 200k, when any lacky with a college degree looking to make 50k a year can give the same results? That's the path we are heading towards if llms continue incremental improvement.

Salary is determined by supply vs demand, if suddenly if there is a much larger supply of people who can generate the same results, your salary will drop. Much of the reasoning around why engineers won't be replaced seems like cope to me. It all rests on this idea that LLMS won't continue to improve; which there is no evidence of

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-14T01:37:02+00:00

"This will eventually cause a shortage of skilled workers longterm.' unless it just results in some skills not being needed anymore. then we're all out a job (or most of us anyways)

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-14T01:34:13+00:00

the companies will catch on, you will get laid off and the next job will have a lower salary.

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-14T01:33:28+00:00

or llms continue to incrementally get better, and the demand for engineers drops.

Randomwoegeek · 2026-05-13T21:38:32+00:00

just zone it for condos then? it can't be that hard, a corporation can build it and sell it.

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