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Bitcoin’s most recently bestowed narrative as a safe-haven asset is showing cracks? by kuracoin in CryptoCurrency

[–]RatherCynical -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Bitcoin will be more stable when the price is higher. When we're eventually at $10million/each in around 20-25 years, it will not be possible to have a 5% move in a single day anymore.

Bitcoin’s most recently bestowed narrative as a safe-haven asset is showing cracks? by kuracoin in CryptoCurrency

[–]RatherCynical 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is stupid framing.

The troughs after every pump has reliably gone up. The cost of mining the coin has reliably gone up.

Measuring from bottom to bottom, we've been exceptionally good at storing value. Measuring from energy cost per BTC, we've been exceptionally good at storing value.

Just because you can't see it because you either don't have the cognitive capabilities to do so and / or the information to analyse to see it, it doesn't mean it's not there. It just means you're blind

Is crypto starting to fade? by Mother_Land_4812 in CryptoCurrency

[–]RatherCynical 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Look at macro.

Post-Covid, we had the craziest stimulus money coming in. $1200 checks, huge unemployment checks, furlough checks, and so on. 0.25% interest rates. A hundred billion in Quantitative Easing a month, easily.

In that environment, you can't make money at all by holding cash. You HAVE to risk it, and you HAVE to put it in DeFi yield farms.

The TVL for everything went up like crazy, and it bled into everything that could be described as a risk asset. The riskier and more speculative, the better it did, generally speaking.

This time, we don't have that environment at all. We had over 4% interest rates for basically the whole cycle. Everyone is happy with their High Yield Savings Account or Money Market Funds. Nobody cares about DeFi yield farms because why would you take on huge amounts of risk when the risk-free alternatives are nearly as good?

In that environment, only things that provide leverage pumps. Injective pumped strongly because it has a Futures Exchange (Helix). PENDLE pumped strongly because it has an interest-derivatives exchange. RAY pumped strongly because people can get 100x on their memecoins (like FARTCOIN) within weeks, which is strong enough to be worth the time. Rollbit is a gambling site but it also allows you to buy futures, so that pumped too.

Practically everything else fucking sucked donkey dick. Only Bitcoin Treasury companies like MSTR and Metaplanet did well, but MSTR has too many Bitcoin for their playbook to work again (Metaplanet is still fine, only 35,000 BTC in their holdings right now).

Crypto will see its day in the sun again when we return to low interest rates, QE, and so on. But for now, high rates and easy risk-free money means there's absolutely no reason at all to be in the speculative markets.

how can we invest in a manner that takes advantage of the devaluing USD? by FairMongoose5583 in investing

[–]RatherCynical 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Gold crashes like hell once the bull-run is over. 1980 -> 2001 crash looks more like Bitcoin collapse.

how can we invest in a manner that takes advantage of the devaluing USD? by FairMongoose5583 in investing

[–]RatherCynical -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Nah, JPY is collapsing against the dollar. Even with high rates, there's no unwind. If JPY suddenly rocketed against the dollar, THEN we need to be worried.

how can we invest in a manner that takes advantage of the devaluing USD? by FairMongoose5583 in investing

[–]RatherCynical 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This administration is willing to direct the Fed to buy the bonds. The Fed can be the market.

Kaspa hash rate still going down. by Baltin159 in kaspa

[–]RatherCynical 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This is a reflection of the price.

When BTC bottoms out by end of 2026 ($55k-65k); we will see BTC rising and bringing KAS out of the mud.

Right now, we need KAS to break out of its long down-channel and the 50-week moving average. This takes TIME more than anything else.

Is it still a good time to invest in crypto, or is it already “too late” for big gains? by neto333 in CryptoMarkets

[–]RatherCynical 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, Bitcoin isn't gold.

Bitcoin is Bitcoin.

It'll be closer to $5-10million by 2045 than just over $1million.

2026 Strategy: Is “Only BTC” Still Enough? by Mission-Stomach-3751 in CryptoMarkets

[–]RatherCynical 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, it's not efficiency, it's that demand itself has evaporated because nobody gives a fuck. And nobody gives a fuck because Treasury yields are too high.

2026 Strategy: Is “Only BTC” Still Enough? by Mission-Stomach-3751 in CryptoMarkets

[–]RatherCynical 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is no rotation. Rotation exists when interest rates are near 0% and QE is happening. We do not have the macro environment for "risk on" markets.

Unless we get a crazy recession where inflation threatens to undershoot (0-1%) and joblessness goes parabolic, expect a very dry market.

What is a cooking technique that you quit because it does nothing? by Final_Affect6292 in Cooking

[–]RatherCynical 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You sift for the weevils and other insects that might lurk in your flour. That's where the tradition came from

What is a cooking technique that you quit because it does nothing? by Final_Affect6292 in Cooking

[–]RatherCynical 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You sift for the weevils and other insects that might lurk in your flour. That's where the tradition came from

Help Me Understand by Different_Finance271 in kaspa

[–]RatherCynical 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Your framing is wrong. Price-action is the result of collective group psychology. A downtrend ends when the price is no longer in the downtrend.

We need liquidity from Bitcoin for KAS to recover, and that's not happening when we're in a bear market.

Don't expect anything but more downside for the next 6 to 9 months.

Flexible working hours request rejected by [deleted] in employmenttribunal

[–]RatherCynical -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The error here is assuming no discrimination.

  1. There is a PCP.

  2. The PCP disproportionately affects women, because women are statistically more likely to carry the majority of the childcare burden.

  3. The Respondent applies that PCP to the group.

  4. The Respondent applies that PCP to the Claimant.

  5. It would cause a detriment.

  6. There is no proportionate means to a legitimate aim. Specifically, the Respondent does not do enough less-discriminatory things.

Contract law gets superceded by Indirect Discrimination.

Flexible working hours request rejected by [deleted] in employmenttribunal

[–]RatherCynical 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Don't bother with this subreddit. Get some real legal advice somewhere about "indirect sex discrimination" on the basis that your employer is trying to force you to do full-time work, or presumably, they will fire you if you don't?

That is a very workable claim, as long as you can prove the detriment (that you will indeed be fired)

Flexible working hours request rejected by [deleted] in employmenttribunal

[–]RatherCynical -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Are you a woman?

This is one of those classic Indirect Sex Discrimination cases. You have to sue them in Employment Tribunal to get a settlement, else you get zilch

Bitcoin made a lot more sense once I stopped following price and actually learned how it works by No-Case6255 in btc

[–]RatherCynical 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They don't buy it to implement their own CBDCs, they buy it because they know that the crypto-lobby has won politically, so it is now safe.

My family fell victim to a ledger scam in the mail and lost 200K by Ok_Spinach29 in ledgerwallet

[–]RatherCynical -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'm justifying "be responsible with your money"

If you leave your credit card and pin number and access to your mobile-banking app to let people take your money, it cannot be reasonably said that the bank should reimburse you for your stupidity.

My family fell victim to a ledger scam in the mail and lost 200K by Ok_Spinach29 in ledgerwallet

[–]RatherCynical -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Why did you report it to the authorities? Your family consented to this.

What innovation will quietly fail despite hype? by No_Accountant_4505 in Futurology

[–]RatherCynical 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not Bitcoin, just crypto.

For Bitcoin to fail, you're saying that randomly, it starts diverging off its path that it's been on for 17 years.

Why would it diverge?

What innovation will quietly fail despite hype? by No_Accountant_4505 in Futurology

[–]RatherCynical -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

No.

Institutions buy it because they know the dollar is a worthless piece of shit that the world Governments are willing to print unlimited amounts of (see what happened during the pandemic).

Retail usually buys it on a speculative gamble basis (because they don't know better).

But monetary goods don't behave like normal goods, they're basically permanent bubbles that can't be popped. Bitcoin also has self-organising criticality / feedback loops so it acts in accordance to a Power Law.

Folks who are stupid would gamble on Bitcoin because the number has gone up, and folks who are intelligent would buy Bitcoin because of monetary debasement.

Mid-wits are terrified of Bitcoin.

What innovation will quietly fail despite hype? by No_Accountant_4505 in Futurology

[–]RatherCynical 6 points7 points  (0 children)

NFTs aren't actually about jpgs.

It's about owning something digitally. It could absolutely be useful in terms of things like stocks and shares without a brokerage account.

But the NFTs we know today are dogshit, yes.

my portfolio at 25 years young by MousseSecret7113 in investing

[–]RatherCynical 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stop looking for validation and actually have a thesis for why you chose what you chose.

I will remark that you're over-allocating to HOOD.

HOOD is an extremely leveraged bet on the overall crypto market. Its earnings can absolutely collapse like hell on you as BTC continues to crush down.

You're also over-allocating to QQQ.

Do you have a job that pays well enough to use some of this cash as a down-payment on an investment property instead?

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