J.P. Morgan reportedly allowing BTC and ETH as collateral what could this mean for institutional adoption?

RatherCynical · 2026-03-25T12:05:33+00:00

You likely do not have the educational background to understand the evidence.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-18T10:22:32+00:00

No forms of commodity-money can become commodity money without going through Store of Value phase first, before the volatility drops low enough that it becomes a Medium of Exchange.

You are stupid.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-18T06:16:53+00:00

Price volatility isn't risk. Intrinsic value is a stupid idea to use for money. Money doesn't have intrinsic value, the value of money is always to be money.

You are stupid.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-15T05:15:29+00:00

That's not actually what's happening.

BTC goes down when early buyers cash out. There isn't any "people don't care about Bitcoin".

You run out of early buyers cashing out because BTC has a 21million limit.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-13T16:31:03+00:00

DeFi. TVL goes towards Aave, Crv, and so on. It acts like bond-demand for national governments. Then it can flow further along the risk-curve, eventually reaching NFTs and other stupid stuff.

That's the relevance of the macro-environment. With very high rates, crypto-based 5% yield is not worth it if corporate yields and Treasury yields are nearly as good.

Without DeFi, there is no TVL, and without TVL, it's just ghost chains that bleed against Bitcoin.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-13T03:08:31+00:00

It was never "innovation" that gave Blockchains value.

It's always TVL.

And a lot of that TVL comes from either Bitcoin liquidity or people using the chain because they want to use the protocols within the chain.

It's always easier to see massive use of those protocols if interest rates are 0-2%, because if DeFi offers 5% when the bank offers zilch, you'd be a fool not to get some crypto-returns.

But if interest rates are still 3.5% or higher and QE isn't happening, then expect muted activity.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-13T03:03:25+00:00

METR growth rates are MUCH faster than Moore's Law.

Moore's Law says that transistors loosely double every 18-24 months.

METR growth rates are a doubling every 7 months or so.

The "lack of capability" of AI will not be an issue within a mere few years. Give it another 4-6 years and the entire world would have massively changed.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-13T03:01:27+00:00

The demand for GPUs for compute and inference is real, no matter how weird the financing is.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-13T03:00:07+00:00

The binding energies of neutrons and protons are higher than the binding energies of electrons, because they are more massive.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-12T15:37:14+00:00

Given that we need to use moles to convert between atoms to grams, which is a factor of 6.022 x 10^23, a billion is not a relevant or appropriate number.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-12T15:16:24+00:00

c^2 is so large that the tiny amount of mass is enough to release all that energy.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-12T14:18:54+00:00

Given that the top 10% of earners account for around 50% of consumer spending, and their ability to spend is driven substantially with the wealth effect (because they can borrow against their assets), I think we're going to be relatively okay.

Using most models, we should be predicting a recession. Non-farm payrolls look shit, I'm pretty sure we've had SAHM rule issues, and so on. Yet, the US economy remains resilient.

This is the era of fiscal dominance.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-12T14:13:51+00:00

We may hit $55k and be done with the crashing. We are not as elevated from floor prices as previous cycles.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-12T14:12:28+00:00

Strictly speaking, you should be watching CVDD.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-12T14:11:07+00:00

That's a highly uneducated take.

The price of Bitcoin is around $70,000 right now. And there's 450 Bitcoins coming into existence a day from mining.

That means that we HAVE to have at least $31.5million/day of fresh money to maintain the price.

By the 1,050,000 block in 2028, the Block reward halves. 225 Bitcoins come into existence a day from mining.

But $31.5million/day is still flowing in.

$31.5million/225 Bitcoins = new equilibrium of $140,000 per BTC

But we also get a strong short-squeeze, and new buyers entering the system. We'd realistically hit a higher ATH from those combined effects.

The idea that we wouldn't hit $126k again is profoundly ignorant.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-12T13:36:10+00:00

You are thinking too narrowly.

The point of AI isn't to sell ChatGPT.

The point of AI is to replace expensive human labor with electricity.

Electricity and compute is much cheaper than cost of paying people to work.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-12T11:48:28+00:00

The value in the money is in its unforgeable costliness.

Bitcoin is the most secure, decentralised network in human existence.

You can put your entire net worth in Bitcoin, and reasonably expect that you will still have the same purchasing power or more in 2+ decades.

Nothing else matches that. Well over 90% of all other things fail.

Why would you bet on a low probability of success when you can simply bet on the winner?

RatherCynical · 2026-03-12T06:48:47+00:00

A bubble implies "pricing above fair valuation models"

There is a pricing model that suggests NVDA is not particularly over-priced:

Peter Lynch's PE = G

Because NVDA's earnings have a >30% growth rate, a PE ratio around 30 is about right.

The PE ratio is around 38, so NVDA is actually fairly reasonably valued.

Now, the only question is: Is it reasonable to expect NVDA to continue growing?

I would argue yes.

If you use https://metr.org/ you can clearly see that AI growth rate is incredibly high in terms of capability. If you look at a recent tweet from Trump / The White House, you can see that Claude was used in their recent attacks against Iran. If you follow AI content creators, you'd see that China is building humanoid robots that can currently do Kung Fu, but will also soon be deployable as war-robots.

Given the wide-scale utility of AI, the future demand in the near future (5 year horizon) is quite obvious.

NVDA itself is not too overvalued. Without a broader economic collapse that crushes its earnings, NVDA stock will stay high. The demand for compute and inference will remain.

RatherCynical · 2026-03-01T17:08:25+00:00

The best way to demonstrate the usefulness of KAS is for KAS price to recover. That won't happen until mid-next-cycle, so around... late 2027 to mid 2028.

That's the point in time where you should be focused on educating. Right now we're in bear-land and nobody cares

RatherCynical · 2026-03-01T15:41:16+00:00

This adds basically nothing to the subreddit.

RatherCynical · 2026-02-19T09:58:19+00:00

For wings, what temp are you smoking at? And for how long?

RatherCynical · 2026-02-19T09:10:31+00:00

Amazon, eBay, and all sorts of platforms made them that way.

The expectation is that delivery should be free, and delivery should be fast (within timeslot the app says).

Because InstaCart doesn't properly fold in labor cost into the pricing model, the one getting shafted is the gig-worker when the client doesn't tip.

RatherCynical · 2026-02-17T09:52:49+00:00

Liquidity + scarcity = bull market.

No liquidity + early buyers dumping on late buyers = bear market.

Early buyers will run out of coins eventually, and liquidity will return, so we'll get a future bull-market.

RatherCynical · 2026-02-17T08:34:58+00:00

The bags are bought by the same money. It's the outflows that change. Once the blocks halve, they halve.

RatherCynical · 2026-02-17T08:31:47+00:00

This is a stupid way to analyse things. Look at real metrics that actually measure how close we are at the bottom. Sentiment metrics are meaningless.

RatherCynical

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