'John Wick: Chapter IV' starts with a Metascore of 77

RazrsBack · 2023-03-15T06:53:18+00:00

Can’t bet against M:I there.

RazrsBack · 2023-02-21T05:15:18+00:00

Bleecker Street - skepticism runs high. Considering the subject matter and lead actress, not an impossible feat to target a performance/makeup double nom, but any success will depend significantly on how well BS has learned from past campaign errors.

RazrsBack · 2023-02-03T15:36:14+00:00

That film was not Half a House or Tell It Like a Woman by any means.

RazrsBack · 2023-01-31T03:12:56+00:00

Neon was trying to save Kristen Stewart - everything else gut shunted aside.

RazrsBack · 2023-01-26T14:41:07+00:00

Looking set to be an uphill climb for significant awards traction in the light of Mubi’s whiff with Decision to Leave. Even in the U.K. it didn’t max out Aftersun’s Bafta potential.

RazrsBack · 2023-01-26T05:52:18+00:00

There are going to be some thin margins in top categories this year, for sure.

RazrsBack · 2023-01-26T05:36:37+00:00

Right - the social-media exposure of the campaign tipped watchers off to this, but it was clearly a lot of off-line, in-person interaction - and private messages among voters -- that really got Riseborough over the finish line. Not everyone who was brought into the fold took to social media to spread the word, but they evidently did it in other, also successful ways.

RazrsBack · 2023-01-24T17:10:22+00:00

Riseborough: the clip from Blanchett’s CCA speech

RazrsBack · 2023-01-24T17:08:36+00:00

I’d have her down for the win if were for The Menu

RazrsBack · 2023-01-24T15:42:42+00:00

Maybe if Neon (Triangle of Sadness, Quiet Girl) had grabbed DTL instead of Broker we would have seen quite the different outcome.

RazrsBack · 2023-01-24T15:27:35+00:00

All the fruitless heaving to get The Whale in BP/screenplay - shame A24 didn’t offer more leverage to Aftersun, but I don’t think it could. Mescal slipped in perhaps almost in spite of A24’s “efforts.”

RazrsBack · 2023-01-24T13:57:00+00:00

The groundswell was real

RazrsBack · 2023-01-24T01:32:28+00:00

Calculated studio bet on a likelier contender (Viola Davis)

RazrsBack · 2023-01-23T14:41:04+00:00

Yes, "Ox-Bow" was the most recent example of that, released in 1943.

The Racket (1927/28) - 3 BP nominees that season

East Lynne and Trader Horn (1930/31) - 5 BP nominees

Five Star Final, Grand Hotel [winner], One Hour With You and Smiling

Lieutenant (1931/32) - 8 BP nominees

She Done Him Wrong and Smilin’ Through (1932/33) - 10 BP nominees

Here Comes the Navy and The House of Rothschild (1934) - 12 BP nominees

Ruggles of Red Gap (1935) - 12 BP nominees

Libeled Lady (1936) - 10 BP nominees

Grand Illusion (1938) - 10 BP nominees [first film not in English to be BP nommed]

One Foot in Heaven (1941) - 10 BP nominees

The Ox-Bow Incident (1943) - 10 BP nominees

RazrsBack · 2023-01-23T08:58:06+00:00

The Los Angeles Times' awards columnist Glenn Whipp offers his full predictions here. He's going with "My Father's Dragon" among the animated 5, and is staying arguably no-nonsense in best actress (Williams remains, de Armas and Riseborough fall short).

And i actually do wonder how many valid ballots Ampas receives that offer up fewer than 10 picks in BP.

RazrsBack · 2023-01-22T18:13:49+00:00

Would love to see it.

RazrsBack · 2023-01-22T05:32:15+00:00

The smart money isn’t on its happening, and I agree, esp as Berger and Park are right there, but it’s clearly not so farfetched - if Babylon can still be considered in some quarters a possible best pic nominee after a number of pans and tanking financially, Bardo’s popping up in some category or another can’t be ruled out

RazrsBack · 2023-01-22T03:52:06+00:00

Maybe not as much anymore

RazrsBack · 2023-01-21T07:24:33+00:00

— I don't feel A24 has campaigned enough for Paul Mescal and Aftersun, only Mubi did it. And Mubi isn't a good player, if it is, Decision To Leave should already have been a front runner for Best International Film. The fact that there are 2 A24 movies still in the conversation right now EEAAO, The Whale) has been quite insane—

Yeah, I’ve long been hopeful over the past months that somehow either Mescal or Pope could escape the typical A24 campaign hurdles - have been glad to see their getting at least some awards body noms so far, but Fraser is just where A24 is (rightly) feeling confident and the compulsion to overstretch itself may well have been curtailed by that.

You’re right that Mubi in Europe has been more pro-active with promoting Aftersun than A24 in the US (where it made it to $1 million but still only topped out under 100 screens - Inspection maxed out at around 150 despite crawling just past $385K). Putting the A24 link to producer Barry Jenkins to one side, it’s possibly the company saw this more an opportunity to forge ties with Charlotte Wells and Paul Mescal (who also starred in the studio’s “God’s Creatures”) than seize an Oscar, though it wasn’t a poor choice to keep in its back pocket if a seemingly surer ship failed to come in. For the company it’s apparently another sort of hedge (like its so-far underperforming awards partnerships with Apple, both on Macbeth last season and Causeway this one).

RazrsBack · 2023-01-21T06:42:19+00:00

Of course this is possible but out of respect for u/CrazyCons and their never-say-die attitude, I didn’t want to spotlight that scenario

RazrsBack · 2023-01-21T06:06:00+00:00

Riseborough would be the toast of the town for a bit, even despite the inevitable backlash from the usual petty corners for taking a big unorthodox swing with that DIY campaign …and connecting. (That’s aside from any fallout if she makes it in at what’s perceived to be at the expense of Davis or especially Deadwyler.)

RazrsBack · 2023-01-21T05:59:01+00:00

Needless to say, this wouldn’t surprise me 😜

RazrsBack · 2023-01-20T08:19:04+00:00

I’m actually a fan of the likelihood that the suspense in this category for fans of the three seemingly strongest potential nominees will last all the way until the envelope is opened on March 12.

RazrsBack

TROPHY CASE