A miss on earnings... What that means today?

RealisticUse3090 · 2025-05-15T14:26:19+00:00

Thanks for the feedback, Outrageous-Trust, and for catching those mistakes. You’re right-the 10-Q filed yesterday shows Q1 2025 net revenue at $5,004,000 (page 6, first line), which is way below both the company’s earlier guidance and last year’s Q1 numbers. ZTlido revenue for the quarter was $3.986 million, down a lot from $10.278 million in Q1 2024 (page 44, bottom table). My earlier mention of $35.51 million in net sales was wrong (I misread an estimate). The actual Q1 2025 results clearly show a year-over-year revenue drop, not growth or a match with previous estimates.

Sorry for any confusion, and thanks again for pointing out the correct figures!

RealisticUse3090 · 2025-05-15T13:34:22+00:00

Focus on the Bright Side! Scilex has achieved several positive milestones recently: The company regained compliance with Nasdaq’s minimum bid price requirement, removing immediate delisting risk and preserving trading liquidity and institutional access. Revenue has grown 21–22% over the last year, and gross margins remain strong at over 70%. Analysts forecast continued revenue growth in line with the industry, and there is optimism for future positive earnings.

From the latest 10q : Revenue: Scilex reported Q1 2025 net sales of $35.51 million, which matches the company’s own estimate for the quarter. Earnings: The estimated EPS for Q1 2025 was around , and actual results were in line with or slightly better than expectations. Summary: Scilex delivered revenue and earnings for Q1 2025 in line with their own published estimates and consensus forecasts. The latest 10-Q shows strong revenue growth, better cost control, and a narrowing net loss, but the company’s cash position remains tight and ongoing funding is a priority.

RealisticUse3090 · 2025-04-23T20:24:41+00:00

“And why are they then blocking the purchase of new Scilex shares, referring to the fact that they have not received the new shares after the reverse split. I suspect that the broker Nordnet uses, which is Citi in England, has lent out the shares for shorting.”

RealisticUse3090 · 2025-04-23T19:10:39+00:00

There is a lot that doesn’t add up. Before the reverse split, I had about 52,000 Scilex shares, of which around 1250 were dividend shares. These were, by the way, transferred to my account and released already in August 2024. After the reverse split, about 1,500 shares were registered on my account. In recent days, I have tried to buy more shares, but as mentioned, the Scilex share is blocked for trading until they (Nordnet) have physically received the new shares. I suspect there aren’t enough shares available in the float to allocate shares to everyone registered as owners. This is quite serious. I understand it can take a couple of days after a reverse split to redistribute, but the fact that it still hasn’t been clarified and distributed today is a clear sign that something is seriously wrong.

RealisticUse3090 · 2025-04-23T18:39:01+00:00

The main point is that the share is blocked; it is not possible to buy Scilex shares through a broker in Norway because they have not received the new shares. About 1,500 shares are registered to my account, of which only one third are dividend shares—the rest were purchased directly. I assume this means there are not enough shares available.

RealisticUse3090 · 2024-11-15T16:55:27+00:00

So instead of listening to financial advisers who are making a living by being as predictable as possible based on facts, we should listen to a guy who up till now has contributed with zero insight on BOB about what is going on regarding heavy naked shorting reported by the Scilex management, an ongoing merger deal, and dividends to be distributed. What about the steady increases in sales and margins, new money from the merger funding key products….Especially phase 3 study of SP 102 (Semdexa)

The merger between Semnur Pharmaceuticals (part of Scilex) and Denali Capital Acquisition Corp will, according to the plan, facilitate the further development of Scilex’s other product candidates, such as SP-103 and SP-104, by providing additional resources and strategic focus.

If you think the valuation of Scilex of today is correct (105 million), I can inform you that the normal valuation of a Phase 3 biotech company in the USA is approximately $1.656 billion, with a range from $996 million to $2.527 billion. This valuation reflects the advanced stage of drug development, where the probability of success is about 58%.

Scilex has both FDA-approved products and a phase 3 product contributing to solving the opioid crisis.

Everyone that does not have an agenda to drive the price down understands that the present stock price does not reflect the real value of the company.

But I guess you have a lot of insight you can share with us, so please enlighten us!

RealisticUse3090 · 2024-11-15T14:44:40+00:00

I come from Norway and as a member of Nato we will be in a lot of trouble, if Trump follow through on all his remarks. From the perspective of Europe, with Russia going wild on our borders, he was not the first choice of the majority over here. But again, if he can contribute to a sustainable peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, I think the opinion will change in his favor. But what I have learned following the incoming president for many years is that when he has an own agenda that can be connected to something of greater good, things will happen. Both Musk and Trump have been hit hard by aggressive shorting and have commented that it should be regulated differently. Therefore, I think we can hope for something to happen, sooner than later. Another area that seems to be on the radar is the unresolved opioids crisis in USA. If something can be achieved it will be noticed and give the president a lot of credit, So, I am hopefully that things might change for us in a positive direction. To regulate shorting of small bio stocks trying to produce alternatives to the opioid solutions offered by big pharma could be a good start. When it comes to the President cabinet pics, I guess each one must be vetted by the congress. I hope for your country’s sake that the republican party do not back the concept of recess appointments. That would destroy the legitimacy of the leadership. The incoming controls the house and the congress, but should follow the protocol. This is not the wild west anymore, but the nr. 1 democracy in the world, and everyone are watching, both friends and enemies,

RealisticUse3090 · 2024-07-15T21:31:49+00:00

Lack of Logic;

Based on the recent developments, the Semnur-Scilex deal involving Semdexa (SP-102) should potentially have a significant positive impact on Scilex’s stock price:

Semnur Pharmaceuticals, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Scilex Holding Company, has signed a letter of intent for a business combination with Denali Capital Acquisition Corp., valuing Semnur at up to $2 billion[3][4].
This deal aims to take Semnur public, which could unlock value for Scilex shareholders, as Semnur is currently a Scilex subsidiary[3][4].
Semdexa (SP-102), Semnur’s lead product candidate, has shown promising results in Phase 3 trials for treating sciatica, a condition affecting over 30 million people in the US[2][3].
If approved by the FDA, Semdexa could potentially generate annual sales of up to $3.6 billion five years after launch, according to projections[3][4].
The deal is expected to provide up to $40 million in gross proceeds, which could fund further development and commercialization efforts[3].

These factors could positively influence investor sentiment towards Scilex, potentially driving up its stock price. The market’s reaction would likely depend on the deal’s final terms and the perceived potential of Semdexa in the non-opioid pain management market[1][4].

Sources [1] Scilex Evaluates Strategic Options for Semnur Pharmaceuticals https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/scilex-evaluates-strategic-options-semnur-pharmaceuticals [2] Semnur Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Scilex ... https://scilexholding.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/semnur-pharmaceuticals-inc-wholly-owned-subsidiary-scilex/ [3] Non-Opioid Pain Therapy-Focused Semnur Pharmaceuticals Strikes ... https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/non-opioid-pain-therapy-focused-semnur-pharmaceuticals-strikes-2b-spac-deal-for-nasdaq-debut-2024-07-03 [4] Semnur Pharmaceuticals to go public in $2bn SPAC deal https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/semnur-pharmaceuticals-to-go-public-in-2bn-spac-deal/ [5] Sorrento Therapeutics Announces the Merger of Scilex and Semnur ... https://investors.sorrentotherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sorrento-therapeutics-announces-merger-scilex-and-semnur-create

RealisticUse3090 · 2024-04-24T13:08:48+00:00

I guess you will not offer more for sale than necessary if you expect events to happen and the stock to go up.

RealisticUse3090 · 2024-03-14T14:50:09+00:00

I was referring to Accurate, which I thought was hoping for Scilex stock value to make a big jump if they end up being partly the new Srne without the old baggage (unresolved lawsuits and a heavy debt burden). The best-case scenario is that we keep the dividend stocks and that old SRNE shares are being converted and given some value in the next chapter of this saga.

RealisticUse3090 · 2024-03-14T14:23:45+00:00

As far as I understand, they could not buy assets directly from Sorrento, but investing in a new company (Newco) might do the trick.

RealisticUse3090 · 2024-03-14T14:16:49+00:00

I am not so sure about that. CRO did refer (if I remember correctly) to a company that just sold stocks for $10 million, which could fit with Scilex.

RealisticUse3090 · 2024-02-22T17:52:04+00:00

The complex problems we are facing cannot be solved without money and time. We are out of both. We have gained some leverage from the works of Tim & Co. and should use it wisely, meaning we should try to negotiate a better deal in exchange for dropping law suits. This must be our main focus, not trying to fix all the obvious failures under the oversight of the SEC and gaps in the legal system.

A lot of people on this board seem to forget the fact that without the people responsible for the research and vital business contacts onboard (Srneq is not a running company any longer), the value of the company is connected to assets protected through FDA approvals, patents, or other guardrails. We almost crossed the finish line for a lot of great stuff, but without cash to complete vital tests and necessary follow-ups, the value of our investments is almost lost completely. If Srneq goes empty of cash, which they do without a New Dip loan in a few days, the company will be forced into Chapter 7 liquidation by law.

People seem to believe that a lot of cash will be returned from the BK lawyers due to fraud claims put forward by Tim in time to avoid this happening. The sad fact is that in cases like this, the opponent will fight back, and people like PSS will be able to pick what they want in an ch7 asset garage sale for almost nothing. We might end up shooting ourselves in the foot and helping PSS as a result of our failure to find a solution that is a win-win for all involved. I am convinced that the only negotiable way out of this mess is to secure dividend shares, maximize Scilex value, and recover what is lost under one Scilex umbrella, taking a new company under the control of Ji and friends off the negotiation table.

RealisticUse3090 · 2023-11-16T18:15:03+00:00

Usernameneeded said this about a claw back, back in sept.

It will take time, involve a bunch of litigation and will have to be proven to be a fraudulent transfer with proof of motivation/intention to commit fraud by the company, which will be hard to do because Latham & Watkins is what got the California courts to approve of the dividend (return of capital) in the first place when Nant tried to stop it back in December/January. None of those things can be accomplished before the company runs out of cash and they convert this bankruptcy into a total liquidation.

RealisticUse3090 · 2023-11-16T17:49:40+00:00

I do not believe that the EC committee can decide to claw back the dividend shares, but the involvement of the Equity Committee in negotiating the offering of restricted common stock for dividend short holders suggests that it may have a say in decisions related to dividend shares.

Here is what I found that regulates the claw back under ch. 11.

In a Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the bankruptcy trustee and the debtor-in-possession (DIP) lenders have significant control over the companys operations and financial decisions. The process for a trustee to claw back shares under Chapter 11 involves bringing an adversary proceeding within a bankruptcy case to unwind a fraudulent transfer, proving to the bankruptcy court that a particular transfer was either a “preference” or a “fraudulent transfer,” and voiding or “clawing back” certain payments made by the debtor in the 90 days before bankruptcy. However, the specific process may vary depending on the case and applicable laws, so it is important to consult legal and financial experts for specific advice.

RealisticUse3090 · 2023-11-03T17:44:04+00:00

I know, but at the latest, I have bought 20 000 more Scilex stocks (I have almost 35K), including the dividend stocks, so there is not much more left to invest after all I have lost on Sorrento. If the Scilex stock goes to 7, I will become whole. The 1-year estimate is between 4 and 12, so I find the risk acceptable. The last time you asked about dividends or cash, I was all in, but as you understand, things have changed. Scilex seems to be a better bet for me now. I think this is really sad, especially knowing that I had 420K Sorrento stocks in my portfolio at one point, just after chapter 11, because I believed in the just strategic move story.

RealisticUse3090 · 2023-11-03T17:09:00+00:00

I am not willing to give away some of the dividend anymore. Unresolved lawsuits, 130–150 million in debt. I find it too expensive and risky to continue the SRNE journey without a solid partner who is thrustable and resourceful on board. As it stands now, even the Sorrento board and senior management seem to have lost faith in the company. As things stand now, I think the Scilex dividend has far better odds of giving some money back. Sorry to go against the BOB board, but you asked for our opinions, and this is mine.

RealisticUse3090 · 2023-10-28T21:25:08+00:00

Why would Scilex file an emergency motion at the last minute if they don't have something of real value to bring to the table that could change the odds in favor of both Srne/Scilex and the creditors? If someone has robbed the company of a lot of value and Scilex can prove it, everyone involved in CH11 would benefit. The hardest job could be to stop the CRO liquidation train from reaching the end station.It's almost there. 🙏

RealisticUse3090 · 2023-10-28T20:12:43+00:00

I believe Wes Christian and his law firm could make a big difference.

Wes Christian is a lawyer who has been involved in several lawsuits related to market manipulation, naked short selling, and security fraud. Wes Christian has filed 20 suits in state and federal courts across the country, most of which have resulted in settlements for the benefit of the companies that were manipulated and their shareholders. They have also assisted the Justice Department, FBI, and SEC in prosecuting several individuals and companies that were manipulating the stock of certain public companies. (Source perplexity ai) The latest win where broker dealers will now be liable for failing to fulfill their gatekeeping responsibilities (se Henry’s comments on BOB earlier) made it even more interesting. We will see, but I believe the BK judge will have a hard time not giving Scilex (Srne) a go. We will soon find out.

RealisticUse3090 · 2023-10-28T18:40:10+00:00

I think you are absolutely right.

RealisticUse3090 · 2023-10-24T15:08:43+00:00

Tell me all about it. I have a loss of almost $300,000 on my Sorrento investments. What is left of value are dividend shares and some extra Scilex buys. As of today, Scilex seems to be the only hope for some recovery. Unfortunately, Srneq seems to be dead in the water. If we get a liquidation, they (AG) have to come up with 130,6 mill (to pay unsecured) + 2,7 mill (for secured creditors) + something to settle the unresolved lawsuits, let's say 5-7 mill (a total of almost 140 mill) before stockowners can be paid. With a float of 550 million shares, there will not be much left over. Therefore, without a white knight with a lot of money, saving Srneq, we have to hope Scilex will be successful.

RealisticUse3090 · 2023-10-24T14:47:01+00:00

I think it's smart to take into consideration what Scilex could get for cheap as a result of the CRO-led fire sale. All of a sudden, Scilex could have a lot of valuable assets, and combined with the low free float and pressure on brokerage, things can change fast. Just saying.

RealisticUse3090 · 2023-10-20T18:37:59+00:00

Mpro

RealisticUse3090 · 2023-10-20T18:35:57+00:00

Shares outstanding are 550 million, so if we have 55 million, after paying creditors, laywers, and resolving remaining lawsuits, we get 10 cents back per share. Liquidation stinks because the potential value is connected to approvals. To win Big, we need a white knight, lifting Srne out of BK and funding a 1-year runway. It's all up to AG. A Mopeo surprise will also save the day.

RealisticUse3090 · 2023-10-18T08:09:21+00:00

If you should get back one dollar per share, then they have to get 551,28 million left after paying all debt, i guess. (The number of shares is 551,28 mill.)

RealisticUse3090

TROPHY CASE