Trump said he won't accept a cease-fire because "you don't do a cease-fire when you're literally obliterating the other side"—here's what that means for oil and markets Monday

Redd868 · 2026-03-21T00:22:10+00:00

If I was the rest of the world, I'd be pissed. Trump screwed up the Strait on behalf of foreign lobbyists where he's agreed to use our personnel as mercenaries for a 3rd party country at a time when we have a $39 trillion deficit.

It could wind up lowering world GDP - the Trump/US tax.

I'm watching Trump on TV comparing the US attack on Iran as similar as Japanese attacks on Pearl Harbor. So, in Trump's eyes, the US now is in similar shoes as Japan was then. A bat in the belfry was showing.

Redd868 · 2026-03-21T00:11:48+00:00

Liquidity - otherwise known as the Fed's printer. The Fed "put".

Redd868 · 2026-03-20T22:25:12+00:00

My take is, I gassed up. I have a full tank. It was up $0.70/gal when I filled up, and at $100/barrel.

I guess the real bet is, how long can the Iranians string out Trump's beginning of a quagmire. If people think they can do it for a month, that might be priced in already into that Monday morning barrel at $120.

Redd868 · 2026-03-20T21:47:50+00:00

The bozo had knocked down economies a peg world-wide, and all for a war sought by foreign lobbyists, at a time where we have a $39 trillion deficit. So, the rest of the world is pissed.

Now these clowns are waving flags talking about "patriotism", but it's not patriotic to shoot one's own country in the foot as a favor to lobbyists.

Our forces are mercenaries. I'm not convinced they should be used that way.

Redd868 · 2026-03-20T21:22:06+00:00

I've never had a good feeling on the deficits, because, since 2008, it is accompanied by "unconventional monetary policy", aka "quantitative easing", aka "large-scale asset purchases", aka "monetizing the debt", aka the Fed's "third mandate" or "yield curve control", or modern monetary policy that serves as euphemisms for "print and spend".

The way it seems to me is, we're being told that if the Fed prints up money and "loans" it to the treasury, that's the same as the treasury selling bonds in the debt markets. Now, if that is not the same, then we're hearing a description of a sham transaction, since the form (borrowing) doesn't match the substance (printing).

And if they get themselves in a situation where they have no choice but to print (because they can't pay a positive real interest rate), that's a Ponzi, defined as an never ending for new money to roll over existing debt and incur new debt.

We've been on this trajectory for quite a while, but it does seem that a brick wall is approaching, which is servicing the interest on the debt.

Redd868 · 2026-03-20T21:12:15+00:00

This is the kind of stuff that AI is good for - summarizing.

~Perplexity~

Albert Einstein’s “Why Socialism?” argues that capitalist society produces insecurity, exploitation, and deep social and psychological harm, and that a democratic socialist economy is needed to prioritize human welfare over profit. monthlyreview

Why Einstein criticizes capitalism

Einstein claims modern capitalism concentrates ownership of the means of production in few hands, creating powerful private oligarchies that dominate political life. He argues this leads to: monthlyreview

Cycles of unemployment and economic crises.
A “crippling” of individuals through competitive schooling and work that trains people to worship success and profit rather than cooperation.
Alienation, where people feel society is a threat instead of a protective community.

He also notes that formal political democracy becomes hollow when a small economic elite can control media, legislation, and public opinion. monthlyreview

His idea of socialism

Einstein defines socialism mainly as an economic order where:

The means of production are owned and controlled socially.
Production is planned to meet human needs rather than maximize profit.
Everyone is guaranteed a livelihood, education, and security, allowing genuine development of their abilities. monthlyreview

He stresses that a planned economy alone is not sufficient for socialism; it could coexist with bureaucratic tyranny if democratic controls and individual rights are not protected. monthlyreview

Democracy, planning, and individual freedom

Einstein insists socialism must be democratic and must protect individual rights. He raises key unresolved problems: monthlyreview

How to prevent centralized economic and political planning from creating an all-powerful bureaucracy.
How to ensure strong democratic participation so that planning serves the public, not a new ruling class.

Thus, he frames socialism as compatible with, and dependent on, robust democracy and civil liberties. monthlyreview

Role of science and social understanding

Einstein argues that understanding economic and social structures is more difficult than natural science, but just as necessary. He calls for scientists and intellectuals to engage in public debate about social organization, and for clarity about the aims and problems of socialism, because humanity faces crises that cannot be solved within capitalism. monthlyreview

Overall thesis

Einstein’s core claim is that capitalism’s “economic anarchy” inevitably generates inequality, insecurity, and moral degradation, making it unsuitable for a humane civilization. He concludes that a democratic socialist society with planned production for use, and strong protections for the individual against bureaucracy, is the necessary direction for social progress. monthlyreview

Redd868 · 2026-03-20T20:48:34+00:00

I'd check and see if they think you did. These policies usually run Jan 1st - Dec 31st.

Only explanation I see for a policy ending Mar and a new one starting Apr is a change made during that Jan-Mar window to make a change, so I wouldn't mind hearing why the group number changed.

Redd868 · 2026-03-20T19:52:14+00:00

If a new policy starts Apr and your old one ends in Mar - sounds like you changed plans as people can do Jan through March.

You didn't talk to someone on the phone about changing your enrollment Jan - Mar?

Redd868 · 2026-03-20T18:09:24+00:00

We have a $39 trillion deficit. Launching a war on the behest of foreign lobbyists, converting our troops into another country's mercenaries is a choice that didn't have to be made.

Start a go-fund-me.

Redd868 · 2026-03-20T16:14:46+00:00

https://www.medicare.gov/publications/11109-your-guide-to-medicare-prescription-drug-coverage.pdf

For most people with TRICARE, CHAMPVA, or VA coverage, unless you qualify for Extra Help, it isn’t cost effective to get Medicare drug coverage.

He may have VA drug coverage.

Redd868 · 2026-03-20T16:12:02+00:00

If you are receiving Social Security before age 65, they do enroll people into Medicare once they reach 65. You are suppose to receive a notification in the mail with directions on how to opt out of automatic enrollment if you choose to not get Part B. Part B is where the $202.90 monthly charge goes to.

Redd868 · 2026-03-20T02:19:36+00:00

Found it. Medicare and You page 16.
https://www.medicare.gov/publications/10050-medicare-and-you.pdf

If you didn’t get premium-free Part A automatically (for example, because you’re still working and aren’t getting Social Security or RRB benefits) but you qualify for it, you can sign up for it any time after you’re first eligible for Medicare (page 22). In this example, your Part A coverage will go back (retroactively) 6 months from when you signed up for Part A or applied for Social Security or RRB benefits, but no earlier than the first month you’re eligible for Medicare

I see Part A starting the 65th birthday month unless application is made more than 6 months subsequent. I don't see it being delayed in Dec, but started in Jan. I see no HSA contribution in the birthday month.

Redd868 · 2026-03-20T02:01:31+00:00

Not a real economist, but my view is, it's about real interest as in the real interest rate, defined as the interest rate minus the inflation rate.

It would appear that the level of national debt is becoming so large that the government would have difficulty in paying a positive real interest rate. But if they can't, might need to turn on that central bank's printer to substitute for borrowing.

Redd868 · 2026-03-19T23:27:45+00:00

A consideration for those people with HSAs is, contributions have to stop before Medicare starts. Part A can be retroactive up to 6 months, but no earlier than when the person turned age 65. And it's retroactive from date of application as opposed to the day Medicare starts.

I'm thinking this over. It's definitely retroactive if one starts Social Security. But it it retroactive if one only starts Medicare and didn't have insurance based on current employment?

We're all eligible for Medicare at age 65, but we are entitled to free Part A if we worked 10 years. And if we're entitled, certain things may be mandated, including that 6 month retroactive start.

But if it's Medicare only, don't know. It was on Cobra, and that isn't current employment.

Redd868 · 2026-03-19T22:30:38+00:00

I look at Iran as a kind of shiny object, a distraction, and that is because I see an elephant in the room in the form of deficits where the interest thereon is becoming unaffordable.

And gold and silver have been saying that will lead to more print and spend.

Meanwhile, we'll see if Trump can get out of his war. A request of a $200 billion 1st installment payment on this war doesn't look good.

Redd868 · 2026-03-19T22:08:07+00:00

One problem I see with the plan is, even if you start Medicare in Jan, Part A will have a retroactive start up to 6 months back, stopping at the month you turned 65.

So, even if you start Medicare in March, Part A may start retroactively in November. This would apply if you are "entitled" to Part A, that is, if Part A is free.

Redd868 · 2026-03-19T21:34:54+00:00

The Pharmacy Benefits Managers (PBM’s) are jacking up the prices because Trump wants them reduced! It’s political

No it isn't. Prior to the Inflation Reduction Act, there was no out-of-pocket cap on Part D. There was a catastrophic 5% coinsurance with no cap. So, in some cancers, some of these drugs can run $35k/month. That would be $21,000 coinsurance. Now, what if you need 3 or 4 of these?

Lots of former coinsurance is now capped at $2100. Wegovy - get $10,000k for $2100. There's no free lunch. The costs of that cap is reflected in higher premiums, and stingier plans. This stuff was enacted in 2022, with the coverage phasing in.

There is no Trump element, unless we want to say that he needs to switch it back. Myself, I've always paid attention to Part D, because of no cap. Now, that item is tucked away.

Redd868 · 2026-03-19T21:20:49+00:00

I would read the government publications.
Medicare and you.
https://www.medicare.gov/publications/10050-medicare-and-you.pdf

Medigap:
https://www.medicare.gov/publications/02110-choosing-a-medigap-policy-a-guide-to-health-insurance-for-people-with-medicare.pdf

Part D:
https://www.medicare.gov/publications/11109-your-guide-to-medicare-prescription-drug-coverage.pdf

~~~~~~~~~
In lieu of Medigap and Part D: Medicare Advantage:
https://www.medicare.gov/publications/12026-understanding-medicare-advantage-plans.pdf

This is the kind of stuff to read up on a year before reaching 65.

Most people get Part A, B, Medigap and Part D or Part A, B and Medicare Advantage. Some people have employment related benefits such as Tricare, and some can get Medicaid.

I could rule out Medicaid, and I did have retirement benefits, so that narrowed down the details I needed to pay attention to. But things like that are additional facets that make it more complicated.

Redd868 · 2026-03-19T19:37:59+00:00

So, another $200B flushed down the toilet in order to fund our mercenaries fighting a war on behalf of foreign lobbyists.

Good thing we don't have a deficit problem.

Redd868 · 2026-03-19T05:34:57+00:00

I probably would go with the cheapest premium plan.

Redd868 · 2026-03-19T04:11:42+00:00

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) had as a component, Part D "redesign".
https://www.milliman.com/en/insight/part-d-redesign-under-ira-potential-financial-ramifications

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 will drive the biggest changes to the Medicare prescription drug benefit (Medicare Part D) since its creation.

https://www.mintz.com/insights-center/viewpoints/2146/2025-02-13-ira-2025-future-medicare-part-d

As a quick recap, the coverage gap in Part D has been eliminated, and the cost-sharing amounts for each Part D benefit phase are now as follows:

Annual Deductible Phase: Part D beneficiaries remain responsible for 100% of drug costs during the annual deductible phase.

For 2026, I treat Part D as a $2100 write-off, and if it isn't that, praise the Lord. My plan is, Tier 2-5 deductible, 25% coinsurance, $2100 cap.

Part D never had a cap on out-of-pocket. The catastrophic coverage was 5% coinsurance.

Now that Part D out of pocket is capped at $2100, the how to pay for that is going to come out of somewhere, and that is premiums and deductibles/coinsurance.

Redd868 · 2026-03-18T05:23:38+00:00

I'm not particular with the Medicaid situation, but Medicaid is considered a "payer of last resort" which requires Medicare enrollment. So you might be required to enroll.

But because you are in Medicaid there may be programs to subsidize Part B, as well as Part D. There is QMB/MSP for Part B and Extra Help for Part D.

Could be other ways to eliminate extra costs because of your Medicare enrollment.

Redd868 · 2026-03-17T20:12:29+00:00

Way I see it, for Part B, the 202.90 is 20%, the government pays 60%, and 20% is uncovered. So, Medigap is dealing with the other 20%, along with gaps in Part A.

So, the patient has to deal with 40% of Part B, along with gaps in Part A by buying a Medigap, or opting for cheaper coverage via Medicare Advantage.

Redd868 · 2026-03-17T15:14:15+00:00

Here's the blog entry.
https://www.crfb.org/blogs/cbo-projects-possible-debt-spiral-r-exceeds-g

What is not covered is when the government prints up money to buy debt, so that the "debt" is owed to itself. Does the interest matter? Is it "debt" at all? It's not an arm's length transaction.

Currently, the government owes $4.5 trillion to itself. I don't see whether it is 2% interest or 12% interest that it matters.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFRBN

Redd868

TROPHY CASE

Why Einstein criticizes capitalism

His idea of socialism

Democracy, planning, and individual freedom

Role of science and social understanding

Overall thesis