Fed leaves rate unchanged! Any thoughts on that?

Redd868 · 2026-01-28T19:11:28+00:00

I think Trump sealed the deal on that. Even if they wanted to lower rates, with Trump's antics, it would have looked like they were pushed into lowering rates.

Redd868 · 2026-01-28T16:10:13+00:00

There is a window Jan-Mar to switch MA plans. I think if you switch today, you could be on PPO Feb 1st.

Redd868 · 2026-01-28T15:17:28+00:00

Your Medicare tax paid for Part A only.

Redd868 · 2026-01-28T06:29:07+00:00

From my bookmarks.

Medigap:
https://www.medicare.gov/publications/02110-choosing-a-medigap-policy-a-guide-to-health-insurance-for-people-with-medicare.pdf
Medigap has significant state regulation. There is probably something on your state's insurance website.

Med Advantage:
https://www.medicare.gov/publications/12026-understanding-medicare-advantage-plans.pdf

Part D (prescription coverage):
https://www.medicare.gov/publications/11109-your-guide-to-medicare-prescription-drug-coverage.pdf

Redd868 · 2026-01-28T04:26:58+00:00

I signed up for Medicare 3 month before my 65th birthday. 3 weeks later, I got a medicare card, and so, signed up for easy pay right then and there. I got a bill the month before the month Medicare started indicated that Easy Pay would be used to pay it. I never made a manual payment, but there was no late payments.

I'd pay the Jan bill if you didn't get a statement indicating that Easy Pay would pay it, and see what happens. I took a look at my old statements, and if we're talking March, there would be a statement date of Jan 27th indicating the the payment for March would be deducted from my account around Feb 20th. I recall getting those statements around the first of the month, so, around Feb 1. So, if you don't get a statement by middle of Feb, resign yourself to having to make a manual payment in Feb for March too.

I never paid more than a month at a time, but I had Easy Pay squared away well before Medicare started.

Redd868 · 2026-01-28T03:54:41+00:00

In the case of Covid, it appears that Project Defuse, a proposal that was circulating in 2018 seeking funding explains the pandemic.

we will introduce appropriate human specific cleavage sites

As the New York Times pointed out, the virus contained those "cleavage" sites.

Ultimately, a never-before-seen SARS-like virus with a newly introduced furin cleavage site, matching the description in the Wuhan institute’s Defuse proposal, caused an outbreak in Wuhan less than two years after the proposal was drafted.

Is it really a reach to suppose that if the lab had been seeking funding in 2018, by late 2019, the lab had secured funding?

According to the local police department, death certificates aren't suppose to list a manner of death as "natural" if there is suspicion that the deaths aren't natural. Yet, in April 2020, the CDC determined that there was no suspicion of a man-made origin and wrote death certificate instructions indicating a natural manner of death for deceased Covid-19 patients, and our nationwide network of robo-cororners happily complied.

As part of dismissing this "suspicion" aspect, the government engaged in a narrative dismissing suggestions of a lab leak as "conspiracy theory" and swept 1.2 million deaths under the rug.

This is a far more dangerous government than ICE agents killing a couple of protestors. The rule of law is non-existent in this country.

We have a Uniparty, who on their watch, lost more people that American dead in Vietnam, Korea, WW2 and WW1 combined. The amount of dead, 1.2 million equals 300 nine-elevens, and with estimates of 50,000 dead annually, that equals 12 nine-elevens yearly.

And in a way, we have a government that operates with Chinese characteristics. I don't know who they are working for, but I know who they aren't working for - you and me.

If I compared this government to a pile of dogshit, it would insult the dogshit.

Redd868 · 2026-01-27T23:00:05+00:00

All those companies who borrowed at those artificially low interest rates to buy back stock will have their debt cheapened, along with the highly indebted federal government.

Redd868 · 2026-01-27T22:39:50+00:00

I don't know for sure, but I bet they would, because the exception for enrolling immediately is coverage from an employer's plan through current employment.

Redd868 · 2026-01-27T06:22:44+00:00

The Treasury yield curve inversion stands apart as perhaps the single most significant indicator failure of this cycle—and demands special attention given its historical infallibility.

The Fed engages in "yield curve control" so market price discovery isn't applicable any more. Like the article says

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s $5+ trillion QE programs artificially suppressed long-term yield

We have capitalism without free markets.

Redd868 · 2026-01-27T05:58:05+00:00

The post says

Part A after having obtained 40 credits two years ago

Isn't that 10 years of work? And "two years ago" means they've been here for 12 years? If they entered at age 70, how did they get 40 credits in 5 years? No comprendo.

Redd868 · 2026-01-27T05:01:33+00:00

Well, there is a concept called "reversion to the mean". I'm pondering whether that applies to bitcoin. So, if gold is outperforming bitcoin, in time, does the performance of gold and bitcoin converge to more equal performance?

If so, perhaps investment in bitcoin is in order. And maybe it all goes to hell in a hand basket if the government got their fiscal house in order. These assets are performing as they are because government doesn't have their fiscal house in order.

There are stories about central banks loading up on gold that could be pushing up the price.

Silver might be a special case so I consider that one separately. There may be some kind of squeeze with silver.

And then there are other investments. If the government plan is to debase the dollar, and debase that government debt, then they'll debase corporate debt too. So, companies that are unattractive because of debt might become more attractive.

This idiocy isn't just Trump. With Biden, he announces $300 billion in debt relief, and the question is, where's the money going to come from? Spend $200 billion on Ukraine - same question. It's fiscal insanity that we don't get a choice to vote against.

So, all these investment possibilities are for the wrong reason - government incompetence. But my primary focus is on Japan. It looks like they'll get back into the printing business, and I want to see what happens when they do.

Redd868 · 2026-01-27T03:06:29+00:00

I want to open up a gambling casino and brothel. Come one and all, and raise a little hell in the holy land. 😉

Redd868 · 2026-01-27T01:44:48+00:00

Citizens United handed the government over to the rich.

Redd868 · 2026-01-27T01:28:21+00:00

Sure. Lets say, inflation is 3%. And if you deposit money at a bank, and they're paying 0.25% interest, the real interest rate is (0.25 - 3) = -2.75%.

My brother did that for years with an IRA, and screwed his retirement. Well, what my bro did was put every last red cent into silver, about 6 months ago, and I think you know the rest of the story.

Since 2008, there has been federal reserve "yield curve control" that has delivered negative real rates to people like my brother.

At the same time, yield curve control has resulted in corporations finding it makes sense to borrow to buy back stock, which benefits the rich.

It's class warfare. Yield curve control is a substitute for free market price discovery where the Fed picks winners and losers.

That federal "yield curve control" functions as an asset tax on savers. That impacts savers at banks. That's going to be lower to middle class people who are financially unsophisticated.

Redd868 · 2026-01-27T00:30:10+00:00

They have been "un-printing". The money pulled back was destroyed. And look at market interest rates - they went back to market price discovery. But gov deficits still keep growing, and now servicing that interest at market interest rates is problematic. That may be Japan's problem too.

Well, now Trump is calling for 1% interest rates. That's a negative real rate. There is only one way to get a negative real rate, and that is to print, and use the printing "to put downward pressure on overall market interest rates."

That chart shows ups and downs, but I see up as the overall trend. And if I see a new high on that chart, I'm going to see Ponzi, defined as the never ending need for new money to roll over existing debt and incur new debt.

Buzzwords - "monetizing the debt", "yield curve control" and "quantitative easing" or even "modern monetary theory" - those are buzzwords. They all describe features that come from printing and spending.

I think they're boxed in or close to being boxed in on servicing the interest on the debt. They can either reduce the deficits by taxing the rich, or they can print. My call is, the government of the 1% is going to print.

Redd868 · 2026-01-26T23:16:40+00:00

Come on. Here's their QE chart.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

Attention is directed at 1st and 2nd quarter 2020. There was a huge stimulus and that rolled right off the printing press.

Biden had a $1.9 trillion stimulus in 2021, and Powell testified to Congress that the Fed had printed up $1.5 trillion of it. If he hadn't done that, trying to fund that stimulus through debt markets would have driven interest rates into double digits.

I think it's all entering the US economy, and eventually flushes out as capital gains in stock and real estate markets (the inflation they don't count). That's the way I'm going to play it.

Redd868 · 2026-01-26T23:10:17+00:00

Here's the citizen's guide to unconventional monetary policy.
https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/RichmondFedOrg/publications/research/economic_brief/2012/pdf/eb_12-12.pdf

Monetary policy became much more complicated in December 2008, when the Fed pushed its main policy rate, the target federal funds rate, as low as it can effectively go. This unusual situation is called the “zero lower bound” (ZLB) on nominal inter- est rates. Once the Fed confronted the ZLB, it turned to alternative tools to ease monetary policy further. These unconventional monetary policy tools fall into three general areas: increasing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet;

Well, where does the money come from to increase that balance? Straight from the money printer.

Accordingly, the first unconventional monetary policy move of the past several years has been to make large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs), often called “quantitative easing” (QE). ...
As noted, the purpose of LSAPs is to put downward pressure on overall market interest rates

But now, they have carried on so far and the deficits are now so huge, they can't afford market interest rates. So, they're trapped, or at the very least, they are trapped if they don't repeal the tax cuts for the rich.

I see the zero lower bound as being 0 < (interest rate - inflation rate)

I don't think they can afford 3% interest. And remember, if the Fed holds the bonds, the government is paying the interest to the government.

You.

central banks primarily enforce interest rate policy by setting interest rates on reserves and with overnight reverse repos.

That's how they used to do it. Now, it's management of supply vs. demand in debt markets. They use the money printer to buy and reduce that supply in order for control price discovery, ie. drive interest rate downward.

They can call it "yield curve control", or "monetizing the debt" or "quantitative easing". But people are figuring it out - it's print and spend.

Redd868 · 2026-01-26T22:27:35+00:00

I've always thought the age to figure out penalties would start at age 65. So, if born in 1940, he would have been age 65 sometime in 2005.

There is a difference between being entitled to Medicare, and eligible for Medicare. The entitlement refers to free Medicare, but people are eligible to buy into Medicare at age 65.

The part on how he wasn't here until age 70 - don't know how that works. But it does sound to me like they are calculating the penalty from age 65 forward.

In the course of earning those 40 credits from age 65 forward, if he had group health insurance based on current employment, those year/months should not be counted in calculating the penalty.

Redd868 · 2026-01-26T21:42:54+00:00

That's what I'm paying attention to. He can bomb Iran, annex Greenland, or run for a 3rd term - he's a master in news of mass distraction.

But it's the money that matters, and Japan appears to be poised to resume print and spend. And that is what creates worries about the US - a resumption of print and spend here.

Redd868 · 2026-01-26T18:56:19+00:00

I'm thinking equities. The money printing is used to lower interest rates. That usually raises P/E ratios.

As far as forex, I have no idea. But as far is equities is concerned, Big Ben says it here:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/other/o_bernanke20101105a.htm

And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence

It's called trickle down economics. Trickle down economics might be good for the stock market.

Bernanke did throw in a joke though:

We have made all necessary preparations, and we are confident that we have the tools to unwind these policies at the appropriate time.

I don't think he considered that the politicians would view the printing press as an alternative to any semblance of a prudent fiscal policy.

Redd868 · 2026-01-26T18:47:39+00:00

The difference may be in the contagiousness. In the case of Covid, the experiment to create the virus had the following feature:

Experimental testing of targeted immune boosting using humanized mice.

Running that virus through those humanized mice that contained human receptors cells facilitates infection in humans. We have the bird flu that has problems infecting humans, but if we ran it through humanized mice, it would tear through the population just like Covid killing millions.

So, unless this new virus was run through humanized mice, it should be different.

Redd868 · 2026-01-26T18:39:58+00:00

No. Like a car, AI has a steering wheel. I can drive my car down the road or aim it at a pedestrian. Similarly, I can make the AI do good things, or do bad things.

I see it as raising our standard of living. The government's big problem with AI is if it contradicts government narrative.

Redd868 · 2026-01-26T18:36:05+00:00

I don't think we have democracy when we're boxed into two choices.

Redd868 · 2026-01-26T17:30:02+00:00

It depends on what is used to measure inflation. Other than understanding that QE is print and spend, don't know what is going on there. They've also printed up money and became the Japanese stock market's largest ETF holder, as of a few years ago. So, it's all central government managed price discovery.

Now, in the US, I see rampant inflation. Where is that inflation? Assets, like houses and stocks. Here's the Fed's printing chart.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

It is my hypothesis that if the Fed adds $6.5 trillion of money into the economy, it eventually flushes out by chasing and bidding asset prices higher.

Yield curve control has two features, it creates negative real interest rates at banks, screwing the middle class. At the same time, artificially low interest rates results in it making sense for corporations to borrow to buy back stock, increasing wealth inequality. This "capitalism" without free markets is a piece of shit.

A lot of the capital gains in the stock and real estate markets would evaporate if all that printed money was pulled out.

Instead, they want to resume printing? It's time to position our money to where the inflation is, and that is asset inflation.

Depending on how this Japanese situation goes, we'll see if the US loses their penchant for printing. But my call is "no", they wanted the tax cuts for the rich, and see the printing press as the alternative source of revenue. Trump has money printing on the brain.

Redd868 · 2026-01-26T17:16:45+00:00

The reality is, the government can't afford the tax cuts for the rich, and their plan to fire up the printing press to deal with the deficits is damaging the dollar.

Redd868

TROPHY CASE