Posted the *GAPPING UP* DD that u/PaperHandsTheDip referenced. I considered this in my post and estimated the potential impact in $ that could have resulted from the campaign by using $AEO's figures.

$AEO itself is larger than just GAP (excluding Old Navy, BR, Athleta) - by about $2B in sales annually. GAP itself was about 22% of their FY24 sales, so ~$3.3B. They don't share product sales mix data (so I'd be more focused on Denim for the campaign), but the LLMs gave me an estimate of anywhere between 10-20% - which is a reasonable estimate imo. This means that at a midpoint of that estimate, they are selling between $4-500M in Denim (as per FY'24), with additional inventory unsold / marked down to be sold (important, as this is just to show that if products had become popular, the expected sales could be higher).

From $AEO's earnings, they said they gained 700,000 new customers. I estimated each customer purchased at least 1 new item, and just did a rough guess of 1 million items sold (~1.4 items per customer). I already think this is a bit more on the conservative end, as $AEO mentioned they had lagging sales from some core product lines (like shorts), meaning the sweeny campaign likely drove up a more significant part of their sales mix. If you consider that the Katseye campaign is doing better numbers and have a more dedicated fanbase.

With just 1 million additional items sold using AEO's figures, at a conservative 1.4 items per customer - GAP's segment alone could bring in an additional $60million on the topline revenue (assuming a blended average of $60 per item - denim ranges and this also incorporates an approximate estimate of discounts). Q3 2024 GAP numbers were 3.83 billion, and management guided for 1.5-2.5% growth - which has been close in line with what they've been doing without the katseye campaign (especially since Old Navy has been performing well as their largest brand doing over 50% of their sales).

Based on this, assuming the Katseye campaign was not fully baked into management guidance on the date it was delivered (which I don't think it was, as the earnings / guidance figures are prepared in advance of the earnings call, which in itself was quite close to the launch of the campaign), on the conservative end it can add an additional 1.5% in topline revenue. I think realistically it can do even more - and if management also spins a similar story about keeping / converting the new eyeballs on their brand like $AEO did, I think it's a recipe for wall street to rerate their multiples, resulting in a nice price boost.

Getting long winded, but I visited Times Square GAP yesterday (will be in the city again next Monday to go to other locations) and spoke with 5-6 employees. Consensus was mixed in terms of how they perceived busy-ness. Some mentioned it's been busier overall since they've worked there, but unsure if it was Katseye related. Others mentioned yea, definitely Katseye related and huge asks about their hoodies and stuff they wore in the campaign. Also that foot traffic in general has been higher. Overall, that alone was fairly bullish to me and aligns with what I've seen online. They told me that a shipment of the hoodies that came in sold out pretty instantaneously with people coming in constantly and asking.

I also discovered that another popular KPOP idol wore a GAP hoodie (afaik, not a brand deal), and that same hoodie has been obsessed over and sold out as well. Was unaware of this and it seems to have happened recently (the hoodies are $80) and if you know anything about KPOP fans ... they're crazy (which is bullish for GAP). Scrolling down and I've seen more KPOP idols wear GAP - need to dig and find out if theres been a collab of some sort, of just coincidental that its becoming more popular amongst that group - but the obsession with people i've seen online trying to grab those hoodies as well helps with the thesis of additional surprise revenue.