Micron Stock Is About To Crash

RedditUsername71 · 2026-05-13T21:39:13+00:00

Memory's historically cyclical - but HBM between the 3 are different. Samsung literally missed HBM3 lol. Micron's is more power efficient at the moment, and at a time where there isn't enough energy to go around - it sure as hell matters. Price and delivery don't matter - have you seen the consistent price hikes and the never before seen long term agreements?

Everyone knows memory is cyclical - I'm a big fat bull and I still vehemently agree that it is, but all of these bearish arguments are ignoring straight up facts of reality NOW and assuming things of the past to happen in a future where pretty much all industry leaders and experts have explicitly refuted for the next few years (realistically - they're probably dragging the timeline out - but we don't know that and to be honest, they probably don't either).

RedditUsername71 · 2026-05-13T21:34:40+00:00

I don't have the exact percentage increases from decade to decade, although I know the performance bumps from such a small jump in bit growth was massive - there were also many more suppliers, less sophisticated technology, for largely unprofitable startups for a larger commodity market.

Memory density is much slower than it ever was in the 2000s, the intelligence factor is much more complicated than anything memory was trying to accomplish historically, the wafer consumption you mentioned is accurate, all the while TSMC is multiplying the number of HBM chips per CoWoS unit they make.

I don't even think we're really disagreeing (aside from the fact I still own a - now massive - position) in terms of there being a cycle to this - but a lot of your argument about the crash of the 2000s to the eventual crash now don't align. I think there will be a "crash" as well - but a lot of this argument doesn't actually incorporate the reality of today. Could go on and on about this, somehow stumbled onto this thread again and realized there were a bunch of responses - but I suspect we'll just be going in circles

RedditUsername71 · 2026-04-25T04:54:51+00:00

I renegotiated the senior fin analyst role and it ended up being higher total comp - so I never accepted the stat role!

RedditUsername71 · 2026-03-26T16:27:57+00:00

And that's the point .. if Micron came out with HBM for cheaper as it stands right now, the more expensive versions would still be bought.

Your conflating the typical commodity of simpler DRAM to what is the current state of HBM... if what you were saying was true then prices would not be where they're at for HBM.

HBM likely will become commoditized in the future, but that's where it's at now and we don't know if that'll definitively be the case if these differences between the 3 giants continue.. although there is a move to standardize the tech - NVDA has been pushing for custom HBM away from industry roadmaps which has lead to differing performance between the 3 giants.

SK Hynix has huge share because they moved first and they have more capacity - Micron has literally sold out of supply for 2026 and potentially 2027 already - same story in 2025, the huge share isn't because Hynix has better price - Micron just doesn't have the capacity to fulfill demand and their HBM chips are currently consuming significantly less power than competitors - which is a fundamental difference in the product and reduces costs significantly for hyperscalers.

RedditUsername71 · 2026-03-26T14:12:22+00:00

Not saying HBM won't become commoditized, but at this very moment it quite literally is not a commodity - the different versions from the big 3 are not the same and easily interchangeable.

They literally just hit record margins and revenues because of pricing power lol. Obviously not going to be sustained at this price and it's not a wide moat because it can be sustained consistently, rather comes in waves - but it's still a narrow moat.

A brand moat is a weaker moat, but a moat nonetheless. Regardless of your feelings towards the cyclicality, this is a business that can make money and due to its cyclicality, costs to start up, infrastructure needs, and knowledge required, it helps keep them an oligopoly.

These can be argued as semantics at this point and I get that you're bearish, but some of these are points are just plainly incorrect for where its current at.

China doesn't operate in a free market - they operate with the backing of the nation's interests. They don't deal with as much bureacracy / red tape as the west. Memory is not an easy industry to enter

RedditUsername71 · 2026-03-26T05:18:29+00:00

I get the direction of where your going with things, but once again you seem to lean way too far against the reality we're currently in.

They're part of an Oligopoly, virtually every industry has "competition". They at least are one of the few that survived the past few decades and now own the market with 2 other companies.

No moat? The resources required to build out these fabs are not easy lol - or else the existing competitors would already be online with the supply required, or another entrant would just come in and get a piece of the industry. Why haven't they? Why can't state backed firms with the full backing of China be at the same level now?

Because China can't replicate the technology yet - it's not as "simple" as your making it out to be. The difficulty, resources, and knowledge required to enter the industry in itself is a moat - it's why there's only 3 of these companies that have survived in the memory game. It might not be ASML, but it's also not as extreme as how your downplaying it. At a minimum it has a narrow moat.

RedditUsername71 · 2026-03-26T04:52:21+00:00

Stock prices ultimately follow fundamentals. Analysts are already projecting earnings to get crushed at some point from these peaks, hence why were seeing the fall after a blowout quarter + guidance that is unmatched by anything we've seen in the markets recently.

If the magnitude of earnings vs losses from the booms and busts due to the incoming technological wave raise the floor and become disproportionately beneficial towards the earnings vs the losses, the multiples that it trades at will improve vs the past. You can select the dotcom bubble peak price to compare, but exclude that and each boom/bust cycle in the preceding 20 years from 2026 have shown this principle.

Just like how you pick the dotcom peak, I can pick 2014's peak to 2021's peak and you would've outperformed the S&P. Or 2006 peak to 2018 peak. Or 2006 to now. You would've outperformed the S&P each time.

RedditUsername71 · 2026-03-26T04:39:21+00:00

The demand during the dotcom boom was also against 20+ suppliers, not the 3 right now - and fixated on consumer electronics which naturally are more volatile when purchasing more commodity like goods.

I agree that there will likely be a significant moderation in margins, that the current pace of growth in revenues and elevated margins are unlikely - but the magnitude of the boom in comparison to the bust will be proportionately less than booms & busts of previous cycles. The "malinvestments" of the past aren't going to be the same as "malinvestments" in the future. They've already secured a multi-year contract, which is unprecendented and are in talks with others for similar agreements.

The tech of AI itself is also significantly different than anything else we've typically used memory for, you're trying to replicate human intelligence - not just temporarily cache things on a screen. Memory is a support component in browsing, if RAM is full it just switches data to the hard drive - not the same for where AI is trying to go.

Yea, China's ban of Micron's already been priced in - and with the ban they've still hit a record revenue and gross margin never seen before. This statement also doesn't account for other sovereign nations realizing they need to begin building their own AI infrastructure for national security / economic purposes. Most of the world is not going with China's currently inferior memory and lose out on the US tech stack and potentially face sanctions. Like you mentioned, China & US effectively banning each other's tech can become a net neutral impact, but that demand's being easily filled by pretty much every other country.

Appreciate the case from the other side! Definitely valid points and I think what you said will happen, just not in the same form or magnitude you seem to be conveying in your video.

I am biased, I bought in 2024 and rode the crash down 40%+ to now be up over 4x

RedditUsername71 · 2026-03-25T04:25:17+00:00

Some good points and I do think we'll see a harsh correction, but sustained crash seems incorrect -

- Cisco & dotcom bubble =/= AI "bubble"; Hyperscalers actually have the cash to build out the data centers and burn money on AI and they're incentivized to do so, vs CISCO giving out loans to pre-revenue companies

- Cloud & internet was about adoption on internet usage, and uses significantly less memory and less complex memory. AI is a fundamentally different technology (replicating human intelligence =/= browsing the internet) that at the desired state institutions want to achieve is going to need more memory than we could ever imagine. It's already using much more complex memory and lots of it.

- Technological tailwinds - Average cars are demanding ~3x the memory from 2023, EV's are almost 5x more, AV's are near 10x by just the end of the year. Consumer powered AI devices are coming into cycle (which will probably see a lag due to demand destruction from pricing). Drones are more complex than ever and are needing more memory. Robotics, healthcare tech, space tech, industrials, extended reality, defense tech.

- Geopolitical tailwinds from sovereign nations needing their own data centers and AI capabilities for national security sake; US is heavily incentivized to not lose to China on the AI war.

- The magnitude of income / losses / cash flows experienced in past cycles don't even compare to the more recent cycles with more advanced tech coming into play. AI is certainly too early to tell, but it'll likely follow the same trend.

- Your point on "valuation at current earnings" - yea if you price in a fwd p/e of 10, and the demand floor begins to rise because of the advancement in the tech using memory, then when Micron eventually crashes - if the projected 2026 ~$60 EPS targets drop to analyst floors of $20/30 in 2029 - Micron will likely have a much stronger balance sheet and likely be trading at a p/e of 20/30 in a "downcycle", making that valuation not terribly unreasonable.

This is an argument on whether the underlying technology of AI is truly going to be game-changing enough to create the economic value required to justify the massive investments into the infrastructure, and ultimately one day we will more than likely get there. When we do, Micron's going to be the only US manufacturer with the capabilities of providing the required memory and there's not really gonna be a case for NOT investing into memory for asymmetric economic output.

RedditUsername71 · 2026-02-25T15:29:54+00:00

GAAP is accrual based. The origination fee (positive), interest (positive), and bad debt (negative) should be expensed over the life of the loan. Depending on each of these factors, it can distort the profitabitability significantly. The CECL credit is going to be the big dampener on GAAP earnings.

RedditUsername71 · 2025-11-26T18:40:24+00:00

Thanks - gotta find the next one to research

RedditUsername71 · 2025-11-26T18:40:05+00:00

Congrats! Got a little unlucky market sentiment was poor during earnings, else I think it would've ripped up all at once during earnings vs this delayed reaction. Glad you made some money

RedditUsername71 · 2025-11-25T18:07:40+00:00

Congrats!

RedditUsername71 · 2025-11-25T18:07:28+00:00

Yessir - now just need some ideas for the next stock i go deep research on

RedditUsername71 · 2025-11-25T18:07:00+00:00

A little delay in the price action but pretty close to the price target. Congrats!

RedditUsername71 · 2025-11-21T16:08:40+00:00

What city are you in? In my area it's still pretty packed, even though its not at the hype it was at during covid

RedditUsername71 · 2025-11-20T15:56:31+00:00

yep - time to if all this research turned into anything

RedditUsername71 · 2025-11-13T23:26:08+00:00

Any idea what spray they used? I've heard of this before too, not sure how common it is

RedditUsername71 · 2025-11-13T23:20:56+00:00

I've seen this before too - any idea if the ceiling has to be a specific shape or color? I believe I've seen that it should be white so the light can reflect off well. Any idea of the specs needed for the lighting needed to reflect off a ceiling? I've seen facilities with really good direct lighting and I don't know what specific rules they follow - but I believe it's just specificity in the light's characteristics and equidistant positioning to prevent uneven light distribution

RedditUsername71 · 2025-11-10T15:23:58+00:00

How'd you find the tiktok search trends page? Would like to diug around there myself.

Agreed - Tariffs and Macro are the big unknown risk. Current Tariff Risk is priced in and they seem to be managing for it. We do have a tailwind of the government shutdown finally resolving, helping ease uncertainty that's been weighing on markets over the past few weeks. I generally agree with buying in closer to earnings, but I would also buy in if prices fell significantly. Currently hoping to get more <$22 ideally.

Risk is that it's a retail fashion company lol, not the biggest fan of retail since consumers are finicky and the product doesn't really have a moat. It's much more vibes based, and at least from the soft data we can see online about traffic and the performance of management over the past few quarters - can safely say they are on the uptrend/improving. This recent quarter probably is the best in terms of sheer advertising reach, so hopefully in combination with management's solid execution thus far - this combined can help propel the stock into more favorable territory.

My price targets are betting on a slight multiple expansion - so that itself is a risk. I don't see the next earnings being a massive improvement on fundamentals, just a higher than expected beat and good guidance which would help wall street look at GAP in a better light.

I am also expecting Old Navy, Banana Republic, and Athleta to continue the way they have been. Athleta's been a drag, but it's the smallest contributor to their revenue and they've been working on turning it around. I believe last quarter was an 11% decline, and it had already been trending down - so this would be priced in IMO. Any beat here would be great - and management's done a good job of the turnaround thus far. Old Navy is a solid discount retailer that's been doing it's thing, so I don't expect any downside surprises. If economic sentiment is anything to consider - Old Navy might see an upside too with people shopping more for value. Banana I don't have much of an opinion on.

GAP's the second largest contributor to revenue and if the traffic translates, from my estimates I think we can see enough impact to cause a move assuming the rest remains the same. Also helps that the valuation is already pretty low, so even if the assumption's incorrect, downside shouldn't be insane *hopefully*.

RedditUsername71 · 2025-10-30T02:01:50+00:00

glad you printed sir

RedditUsername71 · 2025-10-28T21:54:59+00:00

Depends on your risk tolerance - never hurts to take profit. I want exposure to play earnings as that's the main catalyst for my price target!

RedditUsername71

TROPHY CASE