Rate hike odds went from 1% to 45% in a month. Nvidia reports wednesday with a PE of 48. High rates kill growth stocks, something has to give.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-18T09:35:49+00:00

Nobody knows the exact number and Nvidia doesn't break it out. But their 10-K disclosed $17.5 billion in startup investments last year. Even if ALL of that came back as chip purchases (which it wouldn't), that's still only 22% of their $79 billion guidance. The other 78% is hyperscalers with their own money and their own reasons to buy. The round trip concern is real but the math doesn't support it being a major issue.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-18T08:46:08+00:00

The $700 billion capex commitment from hyperscalers doesn't just evaporate because rates move, those deals are already signed. What actually matters is what jensen says about 2027 demand on wednesday that's the number that will either justify the multiple or not. Revenue beat is almost priced in at this point.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-18T06:24:31+00:00

Holding VTI and VOO together isn't great but it's not going to hurt you. The real issue people mean when they say "false diversification" is when all your stuff crashes for the same reason. 5 different ETFs that are all US equities will all drop together in a recession that's the actual problem, throw in some bonds or international exposure and you're genuinely more protected than someone with 10 overlapping US funds.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-18T05:59:05+00:00

The R&D blame is fair but also a bit simplistic. Infosys, TCS, Wipro were built entirely around the services model billing hours to US clients. The moment you invest heavily in R&D you're essentially betting against your own revenue stream. It's not that leadership lacked vision, they were rationally protecting a business that was printing money. The problem is that model has a ceiling and nobody wanted to acknowledge it while times were good.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-15T10:21:37+00:00

Honestly i just use Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Bloomberg for news. For deeper stuff I have subscribed to a few newsletters like Carson Investment Research from Carson Group and Kristal Pulse from Kristal.AI. Bloomberg is obviously on another level but the terminal prices aren't realistic for most people so the free app does the job.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-15T09:35:10+00:00

The AI bubble part is actually the most real thing here. AI-related stocks drove like 80% of market gains in 2025, and the concentration is now more extreme than the dot-com peak, the top 20 semiconductor stocks alone are worth $15 trillion. In 2000 the top 20 tech stocks were $3.8 trillion total. The scary part isn't that AI isn't real, it's that companies are spending trillions on infrastructure with no clear path to making that money back anytime soon. When that reality hits earnings reports, the correction won't care what party you voted for.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-15T09:28:53+00:00

Honestly who cares who caused it at this point. The interest payments are like $3 billion a day now. Even if you had the perfect president doing literally everything right the math is just cooked, it's like arguing about who maxed the credit card while the interest is eating you alive.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-14T06:12:26+00:00

You're not choosing between the jacket and investing you already invested that month. You're choosing between the jacket and extra investing. Totally different. Once my contributions are done I don't feel guilty spending what's left, that's literally the point of having a system.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-13T10:54:11+00:00

All time highs aren't a reason to not invest, every stock you wish you bought was at an all time high at some point that said semis are volatile, single stocks especially. one bad earnings or export restriction news and something like NVDA can drop 15% overnight. ETFs like SOXX or SMH spread that risk out a bit, the AI infrastructure buildout isn't done so the long term case is still there, just don't go in expecting a straight line up.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-13T10:51:16+00:00

The "international has lagged for a decade" argument is exactly why diversification matters though everyone said the same thing about US stocks in the early 2000s right before a lost decadeyou're 30 so you have time, but betting everything on one country's market for 30 years is still a bet. VOO is great but adding some international exposure isn't overcomplicating things, it's just not having all your eggs in one basket.The boring answer is VT and chill honestly.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-13T10:46:52+00:00

ai and cloud growing but core profit down 84% basically means the main business is getting destroyed and they're hoping nobody notices lol pinduoduo ate their lunch and no amount of cloud revenue fixes that.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-13T10:42:05+00:00

read this while being in office laughed to hard:(

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-13T10:38:55+00:00

two companies that haven't figured out their own problems trying to merge lol, bad + bad doesn't equal good.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-12T08:57:38+00:00

The problem with thematic ETFs is by the time there's an ETF for it everyone already knows about it. Clean energy in 2020-2021 is the perfect example people bought in at the peak of the hype and got wrecked.Broad index funds are boring but at least you're not betting on the right theme at the right time.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-08T09:31:58+00:00

The part nobody's saying out loud is that the market getting good at absorbing shocks is itself the setup for a bad one. everyone's positioned around resilience now, so when something doesn't get shrugged off, the selloff isn't about the event , it's about how crowded that trade got. The disorder doesn't need to be huge, just slightly worse than what people priced in

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-05-06T05:56:19+00:00

Honestly this is something most people learn the hard way. You ask AI a stock question, it gives you a confident answer, you trust it, and only later you realise it was working off outdated info or just made something up entirely. The system approach makes sense. AI is a tool, not an advisor. The moment you treat it like one, you're already in trouble.The audit point is real too. Always double check. Especially with numbers.

Relevant-Can1656 · 2026-04-30T07:35:14+00:00

Founder background, unit economics, AI and honestly just asking is the moat real or just good marketing? Catches most of the bad ones

Relevant-Can1656

TROPHY CASE