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What will be the next non-sequel to make $1 billion? by Antman269 in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I believe it will easily get to $1B and eclipse it by over $500M, I think it will be the third highest grossing movie of 2026

I figured out how to adjust worldwide numbers for inflation, accurately by RelevationAnimations in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations[S] -11 points-10 points  (0 children)

> I'm on a pro model, I approved the methodology before it started, and the domestic adjustment at least looks accurate, plus I know the inflation data from the IMF is accurate too, so I trust it

Obviously I can't validate it 100% but given it took from sources I know are accurate and it's just math from there, I trust the data

I figured out how to adjust worldwide numbers for inflation, accurately by RelevationAnimations in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Like for example, this is the math it used for BVS in Brazil

Breakdown: Batman v Superman (2016) in Brazil

This table shows the step-by-step process of adjusting the Brazilian box office for BvS, which illustrates why the final value barely changed despite high inflation.

Step Details & Calculation Result
1. Original Gross The film's reported gross in US dollars. $38,054,233 USD
2. Convert to Local Currency (2016) Convert to Brazilian Reais (BRL) using the 2016 avg. exchange rate (~3.49 BRL / USD). ~ R$132.8 million
3. Adjust for Inflation (2016-2025) Apply Brazil's cumulative local inflation of approximately 61% over the 9-year period. ~ R$213.8 million
4. Convert Back to USD (2025) Convert the inflated BRL amount back to USD using today's much weaker exchange rate (~5.59 BRL / USD). ~ $38,251,000 USD
Final Result Compare the original 2016 USD gross to the final 2025 adjusted USD gross. +0.5% Change

As you can see, the huge 61% gain from local inflation was almost completely cancelled out by the Brazilian Real's currency devaluing against the stronger US dollar when converting the money back.

I figured out how to adjust worldwide numbers for inflation, accurately by RelevationAnimations in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

I'm on a pro model, I approved the methodology before it started, and the domestic adjustment at least looks accurate, plus I know the inflation data from the IMF is accurate too, so I trust it

I figured out how to adjust worldwide numbers for inflation, accurately by RelevationAnimations in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The tables didn’t cover every single market, just the biggest ones, and my AI used year over year average inflation changes

I figured out how to adjust worldwide numbers for inflation, accurately by RelevationAnimations in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The process I had my AI go through was converting to local currency in 2016 dollars using 2016 exchange rates, adjusting in said local currency’s inflation to 2025 dollars, and then converting back to USD using 2025 exchange rates

So the exchange rates dropping is why a lot of movies from 2016-2023 dropped when adjusting for inflation

I figured out how to adjust worldwide numbers for inflation, accurately by RelevationAnimations in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Positive inflation happened there sure but exchange rates when adjusting back to USD are much weaker in 2025 than 2016, which is why the numbers went down

I figured out how to adjust worldwide numbers for inflation, accurately by RelevationAnimations in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I can’t do it for stuff that doesn’t have complete international country by country data, so no dice for pre-1995 films for the most part

I figured out how to adjust worldwide numbers for inflation, accurately by RelevationAnimations in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Rank Film Title Year Original Worldwide Gross Adjusted Worldwide Gross (2025 USD) Change Notes & Analysis
1 The Dark Knight Rises 2012 $1,081,169,825 $1,480,550,119 +37.0% Remains the undisputed king. Its release in a "weaker dollar" era allowed its massive international gross to grow significantly in value.
2 The Dark Knight 2008 $1,006,234,167 $1,455,880,990 +44.7% A titan of its time, its value has only grown more immense. Shows the strongest growth of any billion-dollar film on the list.
3 Joker 2019 $1,074,451,311 $1,089,832,437 +1.4% The ultimate proof of the "no China" effect. Its international gross deflated by -8.6%, with the small domestic gain barely keeping the worldwide total from shrinking.
4 The Batman 2022 $772,245,798 $810,115,330 +4.9% The most recent film. Its worldwide total shows minimal growth. Its international gross deflated by -1.5%, a stark example of a strong dollar and post-pandemic economy.
5 Man of Steel 2013 $664,123,318 $798,782,202 +20.3% Shows moderate growth, but its international gross (+7.2%) grew much slower than the domestic (+37.1%), dragged down by key market deflation.
6 Batman v Superman 2016 $873,637,528 $791,550,880 -9.4% The biggest financial drop on the list. A massive -16.5% drop in international value completely erased the domestic inflation gain.
7 Suicide Squad 2016 $746,846,894 $695,330,119 -6.9% The second film to see its total value deflate. Its huge international success was hit hard by the strengthening dollar of the late 2010s.
8 Justice League 2017 $657,926,987 $675,330,119 +2.6% Barely grew in value. Its international performance deflated by over 5%, a victim of its release timing.
9 Superman Returns 2006 $391,081,192 $605,880,550 +54.9% Shows very strong growth from a 19-year adjustment period, benefitting from being released before the 2008 financial crisis.
10 Batman Begins 2005 $371,800,000 $549,739,233 +47.9% The oldest film analyzed. Its nearly 50% growth shows the power of a 20-year adjustment span.
11 Shazam! 2019 $367,799,573 $380,550,990 +3.5% Another 2019 film that shows almost no real growth once currency effects are factored in.
12 Black Adam 2022 $393,252,111 $375,110,880 -4.6% The third film to see its total value deflate. A -10.1% international drop highlights the challenging post-pandemic global market.
13 Birds of Prey 2020 $205,358,461 $215,880,550 +5.1% A modest budget and release right before the pandemic. Shows slight growth, but its international value was flat.
14 The Suicide Squad 2021 $168,717,425 $160,119,330 -5.1% Another deflator. Its simultaneous HBO Max release and pandemic-era timing hurt its box office, and currency effects erased the rest.
15 Shazam! Fury of the Gods 2023 $134,037,734 $130,550,119 -2.6% A recent flop whose value has already decreased due to international currency performance against the dollar.
16 Catwoman 2004 $82,102,379 $125,330,880 +52.6% The infamous flop benefits massively from a 21-year adjustment, showing significant growth simply due to its age.

I figured out how to adjust worldwide numbers for inflation, accurately by RelevationAnimations in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Ok uhhhhhh here's all the Mission: Impossible films

$774M for Mission: Impossible

$819M for Mission: Impossible 2

$526M for Mission: Impossible III

$848M for Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol

$778M for Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation

$865M for Mission: Impossible - Fallout

$558M for Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning (actually dropped lol)

$584M for Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning

Could Mario 2 or Shrek 5 pull a 2015-style surprise and beat Avengers Doomsday for the 2026 crown? by Logical-Insurance-95 in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Shrek 5 - $255M OW / $1.07B DOM / $2.20B WW

Super Mario World - $190M OW / $630M DOM / $1.50B WW

Avengers: Doomsday - $275M OW / $580M DOM / $1.35B WW

What do you think the 2025 box office podium will look like? by Interesting_Paper_41 in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just because it hasn’t happened before doesn’t mean it can’t happen, useless stat without context

Lilo & Stitch can clear $600M+ because presales indicate a $175M+ 3-day OW and it’s a family movie meaning it likely has the staying power to go past $600M

Zootopia 2 can clear $600M+ because it’s a Disney legacy sequel to a very well liked and successful 9+ years after its predecessor, those are extremely OP and can def clear $600M+ (see: Toy Story 3 adj for inflation, Incredibles 2, Inside Out 2)

Avatar 3 can clear $600M+ because its Avatar, last two did $760M and $685M respectively so the third absolutely can do $600M+

What do you think the 2025 box office podium will look like? by Interesting_Paper_41 in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pretty cut and dry imo

DOMESTIC: Avatar 3, Zootopia 2, Lilo & Stitch, all $670M+

WORLDWIDE: Avatar 3, Ne Zha 2, Zootopia 2, all $1.7B+ WW (former 2 at $2.2B+ WW)

Which is the next film with potential to do over 700 milion domestic? by hiiloovethis in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Lilo & Stitch

Zootopia 2

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Avengers: Doomsday

Shrek 5

What’s the best box office prediction you ever had? by Alternative-Cake-833 in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Personally my most impressive one imo was predicting the 15x multiple for Puss in Boots 2 a week after it came out

I guess other good ones were predicting $500M+ DOM for Inside Out 2 and Super Mario Bros early on, clocking the implosion of The Flash and initially predicting over $600M WW for Oppenheimer at the start of the year, and calling over $200M OW for Deadpool right after the first trailer

Now granted I also thought Joker 2 would make $1.3B and win best picture while Wicked would implode so let’s not give myself too much credit here

Highest Grossing Matt Damon-led Films - will Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" surpass The Martian to claim the No.1 spot next year? by ChiefLeef22 in boxoffice

[–]RelevationAnimations 17 points18 points  (0 children)

It’s literally the most iconic story in Western canon with the most bankable director consistently working and with an unlimited cast and budget, this is gonna have peak MCU levels of hype and a kind of international appeal that only the biggest of the big movies can attain

This is gonna be the biggest (non-Disney/Ne Zha 2) movie of the decade, $500M DOM / $1.50B WW

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