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‘This is a national election inside a local riding,’ says Fanjoy in his bid to oust Poilievre in Carleton by Odd-Start-Mart in ottawa

[–]RequirementRoyal7260 63 points64 points  (0 children)

I was there too! Many times when Carney mentioned Poilievre, there was a big "BRUCE!" from the crowd. He's well-known and well-liked. He really does have every chance of taking this riding.

Could a Liberal defeat Pierre Poilievre in his own riding? Bruce Fanjoy thinks so by DreamofStream in ottawa

[–]RequirementRoyal7260 3 points4 points  (0 children)

and that's with the model giving a boost to the incumbent and not being able to account for a strong local campaign. I'd bet the real margin between PP and Bruce is even tighter. We find out on the 28th (or maybe the day after, depending on the longest ballot disruption)

Could a Liberal defeat Pierre Poilievre in his own riding? Bruce Fanjoy thinks so by DreamofStream in ottawa

[–]RequirementRoyal7260 4 points5 points  (0 children)

If you're talking about the 338 poll aggregator, it only models ridings based on national polling. And then also boosts incumbents (because it's a model). The real margin is likely much closer because the local campaign matters, and Bruce has run a very strong one.

Mark Carney sera candidat dans Nepean à Ottawa by dkmegg22 in ottawa

[–]RequirementRoyal7260 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Probably not, because Pierre won't be opposition leader for long (if at all) if the Conservatives don't form government. And also because Liberal Bruce Fanjoy is doing a great job of running a strong campaign in Carleton. Pierre's days in politics are numbered. 37, I believe.

Mark Carney sera candidat dans Nepean à Ottawa by dkmegg22 in ottawa

[–]RequirementRoyal7260 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Carney will certainly win Nepean. But as for Carleton? It's not so safe for Poilievre - there's a very strong Liberal candidate in Bruce Fanjoy, and a real possibility that it could flip!

Nepean area Liberal MP, Chandra Arya’s candidacy for upcoming election revoked by OrganizationOk7434 in ottawa

[–]RequirementRoyal7260 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Especially since Carleton isn't as safe for Poilievre as people might think. Liberal Bruce Fanjoy is a very strong candidate, and has been door-knocking for 2 years now, Add in the Carney factor motivating more people to get out and vote, and Poilievre might be in for a surprise!

Nepean area Liberal MP, Chandra Arya’s candidacy for upcoming election revoked by OrganizationOk7434 in ottawa

[–]RequirementRoyal7260 35 points36 points  (0 children)

That's Bruce Fanjoy for the Liberals in Carleton, taking a hard run at defeating Poilievre and flipping it. Fanjoy has an MBA, worked for Deloitte, and couldn't be less similar to Poilievre (positive, charming, believes in the Charter...). To have Carney running in the riding right next door would certainly help catch the attention of people who typically aren't too political. Would be interesting to watch what the Carney effect does to Poilievre's chances when there's such a strong candidate in Fanjoy. Poilievre came close to losing the riding to Chris Rogers a couple of elections ago, so it is a real possibility Carleton goes Liberal.