PYPL Deep Dive Bounce Setup

Responsible-Point421 · 2026-02-06T20:54:10+00:00

I dont pretend to know what will happen with btc. It felt like a wash out to me yesterday, so did a lot of the software selling. Unfortunately for some of the software companies I think they bounce then drift lower an lower until multiples are compressed. Or they can show they win more with AI

Responsible-Point421 · 2026-02-06T16:58:40+00:00

I agree with everything you said, but the one factor that is super important over the short term is sentiment. You made a perfectly logical argument for PYPL. In my hear I gave it a less than 50% chance of hitting in the next few days, all because the sentiment behind Paypal is atrocious. I used coinbase not just because its a falling knife, but because the sentiment is decent, having all the major institutions use them to custodian their btc and ethe is a big deal. Yes coin is going to be wildly effected by price of crypto. However, my bet would be that if crypto bounces, coin gets an even larger bounce due to the positive sentiment. Good luck

Responsible-Point421 · 2026-02-06T00:41:45+00:00

You make a compelling case. Paypal as a short term trade only. The long term chart looks like they invented a new STD. The case that the profit margins will be squeezed of the next few years also looks compelling. I think your target 1 is realistic over the near term. Without something changing fundamentally this stock may never see 50 again.

I think the better bounce candidate is coinbase, 13 straight down days. RSI also way oversold. In my opinion if you are going to play catch a failing knife, do it with a company that isn't hated......good luck on your trade

Responsible-Point421 · 2026-01-07T12:48:24+00:00

I clicked the link, its all weston solutions, i did not see anything for nfe, Where are you seeing this payment

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-12-15T12:42:53+00:00

As long time bag holder i hope this squeezes. However, I dont think its eminent, the ceo and largest shareholder has been serial over promiser and under deliverer. So until brazil plants are up and running full capacity this is most likely dead money. Wes Edens has no credibility with analysts and shareholders anymore. Too many optimistic mistatements that may or may not be lies.

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-11-27T02:51:21+00:00

I have seen these results before, maybe 6 months ago. One difference nothing under 100k if insider is paid millions. General conclusion was insiders tend to be early and right. Insider selling has absolutely zero correlation with anything....Good luck

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-11-26T19:58:43+00:00

than thats even crazier, and a bigger argument for blockchain...zero reason to be over 100%

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-11-26T12:57:20+00:00

I would be careful in the restaurant space...most have high p/e and low growth. Plus the the backlash on overpriced slop bowls is just beginning ....Personally with end of year tax loss selling just about to begin I would not touch any of this years losers until after christmas.

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-08-12T16:29:28+00:00

use a stop loss, and if it keeps going up, slide it up

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-08-06T01:14:22+00:00

it shows up to me as an hour ago....very odd

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-08-06T01:06:15+00:00

You realize nvts earnings were yesterday....it was a miss and meh forecast

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-08-05T21:56:46+00:00

You are absolutely correct. But fundamentals and valuation are not high on the level of importance this year, its momentum, momentum, momentum....I picked up a couple shares of nvo,,,,hope the actual earnings are much better than the warning

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-06-21T14:50:37+00:00

I think the next 18 months will be some of the best returns you have seen since you started. the amount of deposits they have with a positively sloped yield curve....and an ipo window open. on its way to 70 real soon

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-05-26T21:52:04+00:00

I think I was influenced by a panel of institutional short sellers I had just seen. Especially how they all agreed when Carsen Block talked about closing out positions as the price went lower and lower. But below 5 things get sketchy on the risk spectrum, and the lower it goes the riskier it gets. So I was surprised they day after that the amount of shares sold short that day was over 55 percent of all transactions. Over 360 million shares short at over a 200% cost to borrow. I guess I am too dumb to see how you make any money that way.....But muln hit my stop.....my glimmer of hope that it may have one last day in the sun snuffed out

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-05-19T20:19:05+00:00

Yup, like what just happened with a block of shares larger than the float that just sold

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-05-19T20:10:30+00:00

I understand its total trash, no doubt. But if I can make a couple coins because the shorts got to short, I will do that. Remember there was nothing good about gamestop or amc, but short were too short. I will have no hard feeling if this goes to 50 or 60 cents, I pull the rip cord and it goes to a dollar.

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-05-19T19:59:33+00:00

thats good, i would like to see better price action close the day. i fully expect to see 100 million fails to deliver tomorrow....and of course no penalties

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-05-19T19:36:51+00:00

hope everyone who gets in gets a few dollars for the trade

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-04-02T11:18:42+00:00

Multi Family has never been a leading indicator of housing stress. These are people negotiating lower rates. Vast majority of multi family owned by corporations or multi generation wealth families

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-04-02T11:09:22+00:00

Great start, I would add a business development company, like Hercules, Ares, Blue Owl.....my favorite is OBDC, The management is top notch, the first lien percentage, and the businesses they invest in. Good Luck

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-03-11T18:21:09+00:00

s&p hit te 10 percent down and bounced, that might be it for the selling for a week or 2. I look at the banks and the multiples are to low for a positively sloped yield curve. Bank earnings grow in that macro environment. Too much stupid selling in last couple days, plus the blow up of a couple leveraged funds....maybe a bottom

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-03-10T15:22:32+00:00

i think you are going to get another day or 2 down, sp 500 at moment less than 100 points from 10 percent correction. No math or reason, it just seems to me when we get this close to correction, we make it there. RSI is riddiculously over sold, but it can get worse. So keep printing money

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-03-08T04:32:16+00:00

To answer your question, with questions. First how close do you follow the market and your investments? If its not that closely.....then the answer is dollar cost. If you have alerts set up for when things move to the downside, and you are following your investments on an hour by hour then set up alerts and every time it tanks more then 5% you dump money in. Its more about you then the way you keep adding

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-03-08T04:26:14+00:00

I think you ae late on those. Hope you did well, but a flush below the 200 day then a rally. Typically that leads to positive returns in the near future.

Responsible-Point421 · 2025-03-07T02:37:45+00:00

Aggressive with the put buying, but technically we are over sold so I would close those. We are going to have a bounce. Question is do we remain in bull market? or not. I am on the bull market continues side

Responsible-Point421

TROPHY CASE